Ninth District Forecast
Data as of April 21, 2004
Nonfarm Employment (Percent Change)
| Area | 2002 Actual |
2003 Actual |
Low | 2004 Forecast |
High | Low | 2005 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | -0.4 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
| Montana | 1.9 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
0.7 |
2.0 |
3.0 |
2.3 |
| North Dakota | 0.4 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
| South Dakota | 0.3 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
-0.1 |
0.8 |
1.5 |
2.0 |
| Wisconsin | 0.0 |
-0.3 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
| U.P. of Michigan | -0.5 |
-0.3 |
-2.2 |
1.1 |
4.5 |
-3.8 |
1.1 |
5.7 |
1.2 |
| United States | -0.5 |
-0.2 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
Unemployment Rate (Percent)
| Area | 2002 Actual |
2003 Actual |
Low | 2004 Forecast |
High | Low | 2005 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.5 |
5.1 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
5.2 |
4.8 |
| Montana | 4.6 |
4.8 |
4.1 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.5 |
6.3 |
| North Dakota | 4.2 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
3.8 |
4.3 |
| South Dakota | 3.1 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
3.8 |
| Wisconsin | 5.6 |
5.4 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
5.4 |
5.5 |
| U.P. of Michigan | 6.5 |
7.8 |
5.7 |
6.9 |
8.1 |
5.1 |
6.3 |
7.6 |
10.3 |
| United States | 5.9 |
5.9 |
5.5 |
5.1 |
6.3 |
Personal Income (Percent Change)
| Area | 2002 Actual |
2003 Actual |
Low | 2004 Forecast |
High | Low | 2005 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.0 |
4.9 |
3.6 |
4.9 |
6.3 |
3.9 |
5.4 |
6.8 |
7.2 |
| Montana | 5.4 |
5.6 |
2.7 |
4.6 |
6.7 |
2.9 |
4.8 |
6.8 |
6.3 |
| North Dakota | 3.7 |
8.1 |
-2.1 |
3.1 |
8.4 |
0.2 |
5.0 |
10.6 |
6.4 |
| South Dakota | 1.5 |
9.0 |
2.9 |
5.0 |
7.4 |
3.0 |
5.3 |
7.4 |
6.8 |
| Wisconsin | 4.1 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
4.9 |
5.8 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
6.0 |
6.5 |
| United States | 2.4 |
4.3 |
5.1 |
5.2 |
7.0 |
Housing Unit Authorizations (Percent Change)
| Area | 2002 Actual |
2003 Actual |
Low | 2004 Forecast |
High | Low | 2005 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 9.7 |
14.0 |
-2.1 |
2.9 |
7.7 |
-1.4 |
4.7 |
12.1 |
3.8 |
| Montana | 71.9 |
-10.2 |
-7.4 |
4.7 |
17.2 |
-10.7 |
4.0 |
20.0 |
4.5 |
| North Dakota | 24.8 |
13.0 |
-7.8 |
7.2 |
20.8 |
-13.0 |
4.0 |
25.0 |
1.5 |
| South Dakota | -0.9 |
3.5 |
-8.6 |
-1.1 |
6.0 |
-12.3 |
-2.3 |
8.4 |
2.1 |
| Wisconsin | 11.2 |
1.7 |
-1.4 |
4.2 |
10.3 |
-5.2 |
1.7 |
9.4 |
1.7 |
| United States | 12.0 |
5.7 |
3.5 |
4.9 |
3.0 |
Notes to Table
The baseline forecasts for 2004 and 2005 are surrounded by the range over which there is a 70% estimated chance they will fall inside.
The unemployment rate is expressed in percent, and its historical average is computed over the 4th quarters of 1977-2003. All other series are expressed in percent change of 4th quarter over previous 4th quarter, and their historical averages are computed over the 4th quarters of 1977-2003.
Percent change in personal income is based on current dollars.
All series are seasonally adjusted.
Personal income and housing units authorized data are not available for the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
The forecasts are made by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis through a statistical procedure called Bayesian vector autoregression. Further details are available on request.
Sources of data are DRI and the Michigan Employment Security Agency.
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