Ninth District Forecast
Data as of December 5, 2004
Nonfarm Employment (Percent Change)
| Area | 2002 Actual |
2003 Actual |
Low | 2004 Forecast |
High | Low | 2005 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | -0.4 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
1.7 |
| Montana | 1.9 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
3.2 |
0.7 |
1.7 |
2.8 |
2.3 |
| North Dakota | 0.4 |
1.0 |
-0.2 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
-0.4 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
1.7 |
| South Dakota | 0.3 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
0.0 |
0.8 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
| Wisconsin | 0.0 |
-0.3 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
2.9 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
1.5 |
| U.P. of Michigan | -0.5 |
-0.3 |
-2.3 |
1.1 |
4.4 |
-4.2 |
0.5 |
5.3 |
1.2 |
| United States | -0.5 |
-0.2 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
Unemployment Rate (Percent)
| Area | 2002 Actual |
2003 Actual |
Low | 2004 Forecast |
High | Low | 2005 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.5 |
5.1 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
5.2 |
4.7 |
| Montana | 4.6 |
4.8 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
5.1 |
4.2 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
6.2 |
| North Dakota | 4.2 |
3.8 |
2.9 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
2.9 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
4.3 |
| South Dakota | 3.1 |
3.8 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
3.7 |
3.8 |
| Wisconsin | 5.6 |
5.4 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
5.4 |
5.5 |
| U.P. of Michigan | 6.4 |
7.8 |
5.8 |
7.0 |
8.3 |
5.7 |
6.9 |
8.1 |
10.3 |
| United States | 5.9 |
5.9 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
6.3 |
Personal Income (Percent Change)
| Area | 2002 Actual |
2003 Actual |
Low | 2004 Forecast |
High | Low | 2005 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 2.4 |
3.8 |
6.2 |
7.1 |
8.3 |
4.1 |
5.7 |
7.1 |
7.1 |
| Montana | -1.1 |
7.5 |
4.3 |
5.8 |
7.6 |
2.8 |
5.3 |
7.4 |
6.2 |
| North Dakota | 0.7 |
9.6 |
0.3 |
4.3 |
8.2 |
0.4 |
5.6 |
11.4 |
6.4 |
| South Dakota | -0.3 |
8.6 |
3.4 |
4.9 |
6.5 |
2.5 |
5.0 |
7.2 |
6.7 |
| Wisconsin | 3.0 |
4.2 |
3.0 |
3.8 |
4.6 |
3.3 |
4.3 |
5.4 |
6.5 |
| United States | 1.9 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
5.0 |
7.0 |
Housing Unit Authorizations (Percent Change)
| Area | 2002 Actual |
2003 Actual |
Low | 2004 Forecast |
High | Low | 2005 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 9.7 |
14.0 |
-8.5 |
-4.2 |
0.3 |
-2.2 |
4.4 |
11.1 |
3.8 |
| Montana | 73.9 |
-11.3 |
7.9 |
18.3 |
28.5 |
-9.4 |
2.1 |
15.2 |
4.9 |
| North Dakota | 24.8 |
13.3 |
0.6 |
13.7 |
26.3 |
-11.8 |
3.4 |
20.5 |
1.6 |
| South Dakota | -1.8 |
3.3 |
14.1 |
23.6 |
33.1 |
-3.2 |
6.9 |
18.4 |
2.0 |
| Wisconsin | 10.9 |
2.8 |
-8.4 |
-2.0 |
4.0 |
-5.3 |
2.5 |
11.9 |
1.8 |
| United States | 11.6 |
8.2 |
2.4 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
Notes to Table
The baseline forecasts for 2003 and 2004 are surrounded by the range over which there is a 70% estimated chance they will fall inside.
The unemployment rate is expressed in percent, and its historical average is computed over the 4th quarters of 1977-2002. All other series are expressed in percent change of 4th quarter over previous 4th quarter, and their historical averages are computed over the 4th quarters of 1977-2002.
Personal income is in current dollars.
All series are seasonally adjusted.
The forecasts are made by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis through a statistical procedure called Bayesian vector autoregression. Further details are available on request.
Sources of data are Global Insight Inc. and the Michigan Employment Security Agency.
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