Ninth District Forecast

Data as of November 16, 2005

Nonfarm Employment (Percent Change)    

Area 2003
Actual
2004 Actual Low 2005
Forecast
High Low 2006
Forecast
High Historical
Mean
Minnesota
-0.3
1.4
1.3
1.6
1.8
1.0
1.3
1.7
1.7
Montana
1.2
3.3
1.0
1.7
2.5
0.7
1.7
2.7
2.4
North Dakota
1.0
1.3
1.5
1.8
2.2
0.9
1.2
1.7
1.7
South Dakota
0.2
1.5
1.4
2.0
2.6
0.2
0.9
1.7
2.0
Wisconsin
-0.2
1.3
0.6
0.9
1.1
0.3
0.7
1.1
1.5
U.P. of Michigan
-0.8
0.9
-2.5
0.7
3.9
-4.0
0.4
5.0
1.2
United States

-0.1
1.6
 
1.6
 
 
1.1
 
1.8

 

Unemployment Rate (Percent)

Area 2003
Actual
2004
Actual
Low 2005
Forecast
High Low 2006
Forecast
High Historical
Mean
Minnesota
4.9
4.5
3.5
3.7
3.9
3.7
3.9
4.2
4.7
Montana
4.4
4.4
4.2
4.4
4.7
3.9
4.2
4.4
6.0
North Dakota
3.5
3.5
3.2
3.5
3.8
3.3
3.6
3.9
4.2
South Dakota
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.9
4.0
3.7
3.9
4.0
3.8
Wisconsin
5.4
4.7
4.4
4.7
4.9
4.8
5.1
5.3
5.3
U.P. of Michigan
7.5
7.6
6.3
7.3
8.5
6.6
7.6
8.7
10.1
United States

5.9
5.4
  
5.0
 
 
5.1
 
6.2

 

Personal Income (Percent Change)

Area 2003
Actual
2004
Actual
Low 2005
Forecast
High Low 2006
Forecast
High Historical
Mean
Minnesota
4.0
8.7
2.5
3.5
4.5
3.9
5.4
6.8
7.2
Montana
5.7
8.0
4.3
5.9
7.8
3.2
5.9
8.2
6.4
North Dakota
9.8
2.4
0.7
4.4
8.2
-1.3
3.4
8.6
6.3
South Dakota
9.6
4.4
4.7
6.3
8.1
2.7
5.3
7.7
6.8
Wisconsin
3.6
6.7
3.5
4.3
5.0
3.7
4.6
5.7
6.5
United States

4.6
7.5
 
4.3
 
 
5.5
 
7.0

 

Housing Unit Authorizations (Percent Change)

Area 2003
Actual
2004
Actual
Low 2005
Forecast
High Low 2006
Forecast
High Historical
Mean
Minnesota
14.0
-1.5
-19.9
-12.9
-5.2
-7.1
4.3
16.1
3.6
Montana
-10.3
23.8
1.3
11.3
21.0
-12.0
-0.7
13.1
5.4
North Dakota
12.4
-2.1
8.6
23.9
39.8
-14.0
2.0
21.5
1.1
South Dakota
3.8
18.0
-5.3
2.1
9.1
-5.3
3.7
14.4
2.6
Wisconsin
1.7
-5.2
-7.4
0.7
8.1
-7.3
1.4
11.7
1.4
United States
8.3
5.9
 
4.3
 
 
1.0
 
3.2

 

Notes to Table

The baseline forecasts for 2005 and 2006 are surrounded by the range over which there is a 70% estimated chance they will fall inside.

The unemployment rate is expressed in percent, and its historical average is computed over the 4th quarters of 1977 - 2004. All other series are expressed in percent change of 4th quarter over previous 4th quarter, and their historical averages are computed over the 4th quarters of 1977 - 2004.

Personal income is in current dollars.

All series are seasonally adjusted.

The forecasts are made by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis through a statistical procedure called Bayesian vector autoregression.Further details are available on request.

Sources of data are DRI and the Michigan Employment Security Agency.

 
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