Ninth District Forecast
Data as of November 24, 2006
Nonfarm Employment (Percent Change)
| Area | 2004 Actual |
2005 Actual |
Low | 2006 Forecast |
High | Low | 2007 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 1.5 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
2.5 |
2.7 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
| Montana | 2.9 |
2.1 |
2.9 |
3.7 |
4.5 |
1.1 |
2.1 |
3.2 |
2.3 |
| North Dakota | 1.9 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
| South Dakota | 1.7 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
2.2 |
3.0 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
| Wisconsin | 1.5 |
1.2 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
-0.1 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
1.5 |
| U.P. of Michigan | 0.2 |
0.8 |
-3.3 |
0.3 |
3.9 |
-5.7 |
-0.7 |
4.2 |
1.1 |
| United States | 1.6 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
Unemployment Rate (Percent)
| Area | 2004 Actual |
2005 Actual |
Low | 2006 Forecast |
High | Low | 2007 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.2 |
4.0 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
| Montana | 4.2 |
3.9 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
5.9 |
| North Dakota | 3.6 |
3.3 |
3.1 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
4.2 |
| South Dakota | 3.9 |
3.8 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
| Wisconsin | 4.7 |
4.7 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
5.1 |
5.0 |
5.2 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
| U.P. of Michigan | 7.6 |
6.5 |
6.5 |
8.0 |
9.6 |
7.0 |
8.6 |
10.1 |
10.0 |
| United States | 5.4 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
|
6.2 |
Personal Income (Percent Change)
| Area | 2004 Actual |
2005 Actual |
Low | 2006 Forecast |
High | Low | 2007 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 7.7 |
2.3 |
5.1 |
6.1 |
7.3 |
3.3 |
4.9 |
6.5 |
7.0 |
| Montana | 7.3 |
4.6 |
5.9 |
7.4 |
9.0 |
3.7 |
5.9 |
7.9 |
6.3 |
| North Dakota | 2.3 |
7.3 |
-9.0 |
3.3 |
17.1 |
-17.3 |
-2.1 |
16.1 |
6.3 |
| South Dakota | 7.9 |
3.6 |
5.6 |
7.4 |
9.3 |
2.8 |
5.5 |
8.1 |
6.8 |
| Wisconsin | 5.7 |
2.9 |
5.3 |
6.3 |
7.1 |
3.7 |
4.8 |
6.0 |
6.3 |
| United States | 7.3 |
4.6 |
6.0 |
5.2 |
6.9 |
Housing Unit Authorizations (Percent Change)
| Area | 2004 Actual |
2005 Actual |
Low | 2006 Forecast |
High | Low | 2007 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | -1.5 |
-12.0 |
-22.8 |
-16.8 |
-9.7 |
-8.8 |
2.4 |
13.5 |
3.1 |
| Montana | 27.3 |
9.5 |
-17.9 |
-6.5 |
4.5 |
-5.7 |
8.4 |
26.3 |
6.0 |
| North Dakota | -2.0 |
21.8 |
-27.7 |
-15.6 |
-3.6 |
-16.8 |
2.1 |
24.2 |
1.8 |
| South Dakota | 16.0 |
5.3 |
-2.1 |
7.2 |
15.8 |
-5.2 |
4.8 |
16.5 |
3.4 |
| Wisconsin | -5.3 |
-3.8 |
-23.7 |
-16.5 |
-9.4 |
-6.6 |
3.1 |
14.8 |
1.2 |
| United States | 5.8 |
2.7 |
-18.3 |
3.8 |
3.1 |
Notes to Table
The baseline forecasts for 2006 and 2007 are surrounded by the range over which there is a 70% estimated chance they will fall inside.
The unemployment rate is expressed in percent, and its historical average is computed over the 4th quarters of 1977-2005. All other series are expressed in percent change of 4th quarter over previous 4th quarter, and their historical averages are computed over the 4th quarters of 1977-2005.
Personal income is in current dollars.
All series are seasonally adjusted.
The forecasts are made by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis through a statistical procedure called Bayesian vector autoregression.
Further details are available on request.
Sources of data are DRI and the Michigan Employment Security Agency.
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