Ninth District Forecast
Data as of May 14, 2009 [PDF]
Nonfarm Employment (Percent Change)
| Area | 2007 Actual |
2008 Actual |
Low | 2009 Forecast |
High | Low | 2010 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minnesota |
0.5 |
-1.4 |
-5.2 |
-4.9 |
-4.5 |
-1.0 |
-0.6 |
-0.2 |
1.4 |
| Montana | 2.3 |
-0.7 |
-3.4 |
-2.7 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
2.2 |
| North Dakota | 2.0 |
1.8 |
-1.4 |
-1.0 |
-0.5 |
0.7 |
1.2 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
| South Dakota | 1.8 |
0.7 |
-5.2 |
-4.5 |
-3.9 |
-3.7 |
-2.8 |
-1.8 |
1.9 |
| Wisconsin | 0.5 |
-1.4 |
-6.2 |
-5.8 |
-5.6 |
-1.3 |
-0.9 |
-0.5 |
1.2 |
| U.P of Michigan | -0.6 |
-2.3 |
-9.5 |
-5.4 |
-1.6 |
-7.0 |
-2.1 |
3.9 |
0.9 |
| United States | 0.9 |
-1.7 |
-5.6 |
-2.1 |
1.7 |
Unemployment Rate (Percent)
| Area | 2007 Actual |
2008 Actual |
Low | 2009 Forecast |
High | Low | 2010 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.7 |
6.1 |
10.1 |
10.3 |
10.6 |
10.5 |
10.8 |
11.1 |
4.8 |
| Montana | 3.7 |
4.9 |
8.1 |
8.3 |
8.6 |
8.6 |
8.9 |
9.2 |
5.8 |
| North Dakota | 3.1 |
3.2 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
4.1 |
| South Dakota | 2.7 |
3.4 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
5.4 |
3.7 |
| Wisconsin | 4.5 |
5.4 |
9.5 |
9.8 |
10.2 |
7.8 |
8.1 |
8.5 |
5.3 |
| U.P of Michigan | 7.6 |
10.1 |
12.9 |
14.2 |
15.4 |
12.2 |
13.4 |
14.6 |
9.8 |
| United States | 4.8 |
6.9 |
9.5 |
8.9 |
6.1 |
Personal Income (Percent Change)
| Area | 2007 Actual |
2008 Actual |
Low | 2009 Forecast |
High | Low | 2010 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 6.5 |
3.6 |
-1.4 |
-0.3 |
0.9 |
0.8 |
2.5 |
4.2 |
6.8 |
| Montana | 7.5 |
2.9 |
-2.4 |
-1.2 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
2.7 |
4.6 |
6.3 |
| North Dakota | 12.8 |
6.7 |
-19.1 |
-7.6 |
6.5 |
-41.1 |
-28.1 |
-12.9 |
6.4 |
| South Dakota | 11.6 |
3.0 |
-1.2 |
0.7 |
2.7 |
-0.3 |
2.4 |
5.1 |
6.7 |
| Wisconsin | 5.6 |
2.0 |
0.3 |
1.2 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
3.2 |
4.3 |
6.1 |
| United States | 5.8 |
2.2 |
-1.2 |
2.2 |
6.7 |
Housing Unit Authorizations (Percent Change)
| Area | 2007 Actual |
2008 Actual |
Low | 2009 Forecast |
High | Low | 2010 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | -39.0 |
-42.5 |
122.8 |
155.0 |
188.2 |
25.3 |
42.5 |
64.5 |
-1.0 |
| Montana | -12.9 |
-47.4 |
-73.5 |
-41.7 |
-10.9 |
6.0 |
79.2 |
255.5 |
2.9 |
| North Dakota | -6.0 |
-13.8 |
-38.3 |
-14.2 |
8.4 |
-16.4 |
19.3 |
67.8 |
0.3 |
| South Dakota | -2.6 |
-16.4 |
-16.8 |
-4.4 |
7.2 |
-0.2 |
16.1 |
36.3 |
2.1 |
| Wisconsin | -26.4 |
-34.3 |
-28.1 |
-10.5 |
6.8 |
14.9 |
44.0 |
81.7 |
-1.7 |
| United States | -26.6 |
-45.6 |
-15.2 |
64.9 |
-0.2 |
Notes to Table
The baseline forecasts for 2009 and 2010 are surrounded by the range over which there is a 70% estimated chance they will fall inside.
The unemployment rate is expressed in percent, and its historical average is computed over the 4th quarters of 1977- 2007. All other series are expressed in percent change of 4th quarter over previous 4th quarter. Historical averages are computed over the 4th quarters of 1977-2007 for personal income and housing units authorized and 1991-2007 for nonfarm employment.
Personal income is in current dollars.
All series are seasonally adjusted.
The forecasts are made by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis through a statistical procedure called Bayesian vector autoregression. Further details are available on request.
Sources of data are DRI and the Michigan Employment Security Agency.
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