Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2001
Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized
Nonfarm Employment
| Area | First Forecast July 2000 |
Second Forecast January 2001 |
Third Forecast July 2001 |
Estimate January 2002 |
Final July 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 1.8 |
2.4 |
0.1 |
-0.5 |
-1.0 |
| Montana | 2.0 |
2.4 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
| North Dakota | -0.5 |
-0.2 |
0.6 |
-0.8 |
0.6 |
| South Dakota | 2.5 |
2.5 |
1.2 |
0.6 |
0.0 |
| Wisconsin | 2.0 |
2.5 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
-1.8 |
| Upper Peninsula of Michigan | 1.6 |
1.9 |
0.5 |
0.4 |
-1.3 |
| Avg. Variance from Final | 2.2 |
2.5 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
|
| Historical Avg. Variance | 1.1 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
||
| Avg. Variance-Historical Avg. Variance | 1.1 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
Unemployment Rate
| Area | First Forecast July 2000 |
Second Forecast January 2001 |
Third Forecast July 2001 |
Estimate January 2002 |
Final July 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 2.3 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
3.6 |
4.1 |
| Montana | 4.9 |
5.1 |
4.5 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
| North Dakota | 3.2 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
3.3 |
| South Dakota | 2.4 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
3.1 |
3.6 |
| Wisconsin | 2.7 |
3.4 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
| Upper Peninsula of Michigan | 4.4 |
6.1 |
6.8 |
7.4 |
7.4 |
| Avg. Variance from Final | 1.1 |
1.1 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
|
| Historical Avg. Variance | 0.7 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
||
| Avg. Variance-Historical Avg. Variance | 0.4 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
Personal Income
| Area | First Forecast July 2000 |
Second Forecast January 2001 |
Third Forecast July 2001 |
Estimate January 2002 |
Final July 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.8 |
5.6 |
2.9 |
2.1 |
1.4 |
| Montana | 3.6 |
4.1 |
3.3 |
4.4 |
3.0 |
| North Dakota | 1.1 |
1.3 |
0.3 |
2.8 |
2.1 |
| South Dakota | 3.9 |
4.0 |
2.6 |
0.5 |
3.2 |
| Wisconsin | 4.3 |
5.0 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
2.1 |
| Avg. Variance from Final | 1.6 |
2.0 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
|
| Historical Avg. Variance | 2.7 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
||
| Avg. Variance-Historical Avg. Variance | -1.1 |
-0.9 |
-1.4 |
Housing Units Authorized
| Area | First Forecast July 2000 |
Second Forecast January 2001 |
Third Forecast July 2001 |
Estimate January 2002 |
Final July 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 2.2 |
-0.6 |
-5.3 |
-5.0 |
8.6 |
| Montana | 0.3 |
2.6 |
27.6 |
26.3 |
9.1 |
| North Dakota | 3.9 |
2.5 |
28.7 |
77.0 |
24.3 |
| South Dakota | 3.9 |
3.8 |
4.5 |
0.8 |
3.9 |
| Wisconsin | 4.5 |
5.7 |
9.0 |
3.3 |
6.3 |
| Avg. Variance from Final | 7.5 |
7.6 |
8.0 |
17.9 |
|
| Historical Avg. Variance | 16.6 |
16.0 |
22.2 |
||
| Avg. Variance-Historical Avg. Variance | -9.1 |
-8.4 |
-14.2 |
