Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2002
Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized
Nonfarm Employment
| Area | First Forecast July 2001 |
Second Forecast January 2002 |
Third Forecast July 2002 |
Estimate January 2003 |
Final July 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 0.7 |
-1.9 |
1.6 |
-0.2 |
-0.4 |
| Montana | 1.8 |
1.7 |
2.9 |
2.0 |
1.9 |
| North Dakota | 1.0 |
-1.1 |
2.2 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| South Dakota | 2.1 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
0.3 |
| Wisconsin | 1.5 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
0.0 |
| Upper Peninsula of Michigan | 0.3 |
-1.6 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
-0.5 |
| Average Variance From Final | 1.0 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
0.6 |
|
| Historical Average Variance | 1.1 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
||
| Average Var. - Historical Average Var. | -0.1 |
-0.2 |
0.5 |
Unemployment Rate
| Area | First Forecast July 2001 |
Second Forecast January 2002 |
Third Forecast July 2002 |
Estimate January 2003 |
Final July 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 3.7 |
4.3 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
4.5 |
| Montana | 4.9 |
5.2 |
4.4 |
4.1 |
4.6 |
| North Dakota | 2.8 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
4.2 |
| South Dakota | 2.0 |
3.2 |
2.7 |
2.6 |
3.1 |
| Wisconsin | 5.0 |
6.5 |
6.2 |
5.0 |
5.6 |
| Upper Peninsula of Michigan | 7.5 |
10.3 |
8.0 |
7.6 |
6.4 |
| Average Variance From Final | 0.8 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
| Historical Average Variance | 0.7 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
||
| Average Var. - Historical Average Var. | 0.2 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Personal Income
| Area | First Forecast July 2001 |
Second Forecast January 2002 |
Third Forecast July 2002 |
Estimate January 2003 |
Final July 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 2.8 |
-1.2 |
3.2 |
3.9 |
2.4 |
| Montana | 2.8 |
1.8 |
3.1 |
4.5 |
-1.1 |
| North Dakota | -0.5 |
-1.2 |
2.3 |
3.9 |
0.7 |
| South Dakota | 2.4 |
-1.6 |
1.9 |
5.5 |
-0.3 |
| Wisconsin | 3.4 |
0.9 |
3.3 |
5.3 |
3.0 |
| Average Variance From Final | 1.7 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
3.7 |
|
| Historical Average Variance | 2.7 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
||
| Average Var. - Historical Average Var. | -0.9 |
-0.5 |
-0.7 |
Housing Units Authorized
| Area | First Forecast July 2001 |
Second Forecast January 2002 |
Third Forecast July 2002 |
Estimate January 2003 |
Final July 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | -0.1 |
4.3 |
8.1 |
2.8 |
9.7 |
| Montana | 7.4 |
18.8 |
43.9 |
50.6 |
73.9 |
| North Dakota | 9.7 |
44.3 |
55.0 |
44.7 |
24.8 |
| South Dakota | -1.1 |
-9.2 |
19.3 |
-2.2 |
-1.8 |
| Wisconsin | 3.4 |
6.4 |
10.5 |
5.9 |
10.9 |
| Average Variance From Final | 19.9 |
18.4 |
16.7 |
11.1 |
|
| Historical Average Variance | 16.6 |
16.0 |
22.2 |
||
| Average Var. - Historical Average Var. | 3.3 |
2.4 |
-5.5 |
