Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2002

Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized

Nonfarm Employment

Area First Forecast
July 2001
Second Forecast
January 2002
Third Forecast
July 2002
Estimate
January 2003
Final
July 2003
Minnesota
0.7
-1.9
1.6
-0.2
-0.4
Montana
1.8
1.7
2.9
2.0
1.9
North Dakota
1.0
-1.1
2.2
0.0
0.4
South Dakota
2.1
1.1
0.8
1.2
0.3
Wisconsin
1.5
0.3
1.5
1.3
0.0
Upper Peninsula of Michigan
0.3
-1.6
0.3
1.1
-0.5
Average Variance From Final
1.0
0.9
1.4
0.6
 
Historical Average Variance
1.1
1.1
0.9
 
 
Average Var. - Historical Average Var.
-0.1
-0.2
0.5
 
 

 

Unemployment Rate

Area First Forecast
July 2001
Second Forecast
January 2002
Third Forecast
July 2002
Estimate
January 2003
Final
July 2003
Minnesota
3.7
4.3
4.7
4.3
4.5
Montana
4.9
5.2
4.4
4.1
4.6
North Dakota
2.8
3.2
3.2
3.5
4.2
South Dakota
2.0
3.2
2.7
2.6
3.1
Wisconsin
5.0
6.5
6.2
5.0
5.6
Upper Peninsula of Michigan
7.5
10.3
8.0
7.6
6.4
Average Variance From Final
0.8
0.6
0.5
0.5
 
Historical Average Variance
0.7
0.6
0.5
 
 
Average Var. - Historical Average Var.
0.2
0.0
0.0
 
 

 

Personal Income

Area First Forecast
July 2001
Second Forecast
January 2002
Third Forecast
July 2002
Estimate
January 2003
Final
July 2003
Minnesota
2.8
-1.2
3.2
3.9
2.4
Montana
2.8
1.8
3.1
4.5
-1.1
North Dakota
-0.5
-1.2
2.3
3.9
0.7
South Dakota
2.4
-1.6
1.9
5.5
-0.3
Wisconsin
3.4
0.9
3.3
5.3
3.0
Average Variance From Final
1.7
2.4
1.8
3.7
 
Historical Average Variance
2.7
2.8
2.5
 
 
Average Var. - Historical Average Var.
-0.9
-0.5
-0.7
 
 

 

Housing Units Authorized

Area First Forecast
July 2001
Second Forecast
January 2002
Third Forecast
July 2002
Estimate
January 2003
Final
July 2003
Minnesota
-0.1
4.3
8.1
2.8
9.7
Montana
7.4
18.8
43.9
50.6
73.9
North Dakota
9.7
44.3
55.0
44.7
24.8
South Dakota
-1.1
-9.2
19.3
-2.2
-1.8
Wisconsin
3.4
6.4
10.5
5.9
10.9
Average Variance From Final
19.9
18.4
16.7
11.1
 
Historical Average Variance
16.6
16.0
22.2
 
 
Average Var. - Historical Average Var.
3.3
2.4
-5.5
 
 

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