Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2003
Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized
Nonfarm Employment
| Area | First Forecast July 2002 |
Second Forecast January 2003 |
Third Forecast July 2003 |
Estimate January 2004 |
Final July 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 2.3 |
-0.3 |
1.0 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
| Montana | 2.0 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
| North Dakota | 3.7 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
-0.1 |
1.0 |
| South Dakota | 1.9 |
1.5 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
0.2 |
| Wisconsin | 2.1 |
1.5 |
2.3 |
1.0 |
-0.2 |
| Upper Peninsula of Michigan | 1.3 |
0.5 |
-0.5 |
0.6 |
-0.8 |
| Avg. Variance From Final | 2.0 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
0.6 |
|
| Historical Avg. Variance | 1.1 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
||
| Avg. Variance - Historical Avg. Variance | 0.9 |
-0.4 |
0.3 |
Unemployment Rate
| Area | First Forecast July 2002 |
Second Forecast January 2003 |
Third Forecast July 2003 |
Estimate January 2004 |
Final July 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.6 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
4.6 |
4.9 |
| Montana | 4.5 |
4.3 |
3.8 |
4.8 |
4.4 |
| North Dakota | 3.2 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
3.5 |
| South Dakota | 3.0 |
2.9 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
3.5 |
| Wisconsin | 6.2 |
5.3 |
5.7 |
5.7 |
5.4 |
| Upper Peninsula of Michigan | 8.1 |
8.5 |
7.5 |
8.0 |
7.5 |
| Avg. Variance From Final | 0.4 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
|
| Historical Avg. Variance | 0.7 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
||
| Avg. Variance - Historical Avg. Variance | -0.3 |
-0.3 |
-0.3 |
Personal Income
| Area | First Forecast July 2002 |
Second Forecast January 2003 |
Third Forecast July 2003 |
Estimate January 2004 |
Final July 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.0 |
1.9 |
3.3 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
| Montana | 2.9 |
2.9 |
4.2 |
5.2 |
5.7 |
| North Dakota | 1.6 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
6.5 |
9.8 |
| South Dakota | 2.5 |
2.2 |
2.3 |
9.2 |
9.6 |
| Wisconsin | 3.1 |
3.4 |
3.7 |
4.3 |
3.6 |
| Avg. Variance From Final | 3.7 |
4.3 |
3.6 |
1.0 |
|
| Historical Avg. Variance | 2.7 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
||
| Avg. Variance - Historical Avg. Variance | 1.1 |
1.5 |
1.1 |
Housing Units Authorized
| Area | First Forecast July 2002 |
Second Forecast January 2003 |
Third Forecast July 2003 |
Estimate January 2004 |
Final July 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 1.3 |
1.3 |
-4.3 |
7.0 |
14.0 |
| Montana | 6.8 |
5.2 |
27.9 |
-8.8 |
-10.3 |
| North Dakota | 9.5 |
5.9 |
39.1 |
28.6 |
12.4 |
| South Dakota | 4.4 |
1.3 |
16.7 |
13.0 |
3.8 |
| Wisconsin | 3.6 |
3.4 |
13.0 |
4.6 |
1.7 |
| Avg. Variance From Final | 7.0 |
7.8 |
21.5 |
7.4 |
|
| Historical Avg. Variance | 16.6 |
16.0 |
22.2 |
||
| Avg. Variance - Historical Avg. Variance | -9.6 |
-8.2 |
-0.7 |
