Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2004

Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized

Nonfarm Employment

Area First Forecast
July 2003
Second Forecast
January 2004
Third Forecast
July 2004
Estimate
January 2005
Final
July 2005
Minnesota
1.1
0.7
1.0
0.9
1.5
Montana
1.3
1.5
1.9
2.3
2.9
North Dakota
1.0
0.3
1.1
0.2
1.9
South Dakota
1.2
0.1
0.6
0.9
1.7
Wisconsin
1.6
1.3
0.9
2.7
1.5
Upper Peninsula of Michigan
0.0
0.3
1.1
1.1
0.2
Avg. Variance From Final
0.7
1.1
0.8
1.0
 
Historical Avg. Variance
1.1
1.1
0.9
 
 
Avg. Variance - Historical Avg. Variance
-0.4
0.0
-0.1
 
 

 

Unemployment Rate

Area First Forecast
July 2003
Second Forecast
January 2004
Third Forecast
July 2004
Estimate
January 2005
Final
July 2005
Minnesota
5.0
4.7
5.0
4.7
4.2
Montana
4.3
4.7
4.4
4.7
4.2
North Dakota
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.3
3.6
South Dakota
3.3
3.3
3.7
3.4
3.9
Wisconsin
6.2
5.8
5.1
4.8
4.7
Upper Peninsula of Michigan
8.3
7.8
6.9
7.0
7.6
Avg. Variance From Final
0.7
0.6
0.3
0.4
 
Historical Avg. Variance
0.7
0.6
0.5
 
 
Avg. Variance - Historical Avg. Variance
0.0
0.0
-0.2
 
 

 

Personal Income

Area First Forecast
July 2003
Second Forecast
January 2004
Third Forecast
July 2004
Estimate
January 2005
Final
July 2005
Minnesota
2.7
4.7
4.9
7.1
7.7
Montana
3.4
5.0
4.6
5.8
7.3
North Dakota
0.6
1.3
3.1
4.3
2.3
South Dakota
2.2
4.7
5.0
4.9
7.9
Wisconsin
2.5
5.0
4.9
3.8
5.7
Avg. Variance From Final
3.9
2.0
2.0
1.8
 
Historical Avg. Variance
2.7
2.8
2.5
 
 
Avg. Variance - Historical Avg. Variance
1.2
-0.8
-0.5
 
 

 

Housing Units Authorized

Area First Forecast
July 2003
Second Forecast
January 2004
Third Forecast
July 2004
Estimate
January 2005
Final
July 2005
Minnesota
0.1
3.4
2.9
-4.2
-1.5
Montana
6.8
4.1
4.7
18.3
23.5
North Dakota
4.5
5.9
7.2
13.7
-2.0
South Dakota
0.9
1.3
-1.1
23.6
16.0
Wisconsin
4.0
4.0
4.2
-2.0
-5.3
Avg. Variance From Final
10.6
12.0
12.6
7.7
 
Historical Avg. Variance
16.6
16.0
22.2
 
 
Avg. Variance - Historical Avg. Variance
-6.0
-4.0
-9.6
 
 

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