Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2005
Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized
Nonfarm Employment
| Area | First Forecast July 2004 |
Second Forecast January 2005 |
Third Forecast July 2005 |
Estimate January 2006 |
Final July 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 1.2 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
1.6 |
1.7 |
| Montana | 2.0 |
1.7 |
0.7 |
1.7 |
2.6 |
| North Dakota | 1.0 |
0.0 |
1.3 |
1.8 |
1.7 |
| South Dakota | 0.8 |
0.8 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
| Wisconsin | 1.0 |
1.7 |
0.3 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
| Upper Peninsula of Michigan | 1.1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.7 |
-0.2 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
Unemployment Rate
| Area | First Forecast July 2004 |
Second Forecast January 2005 |
Third Forecast July 2005 |
Estimate January 2006 |
Final July 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.9 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
3.7 |
4.0 |
| Montana | 4.2 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4.4 |
3.6 |
| North Dakota | 3.4 |
3.3 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
| South Dakota | 3.8 |
3.4 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
| Wisconsin | 5.0 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.7 |
4.8 |
| Upper Peninsula of Michigan | 6.3 |
6.9 |
7.0 |
7.3 |
6.9 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.2 |
Personal Income
| Area | First Forecast July 2004 |
Second Forecast January 2005 |
Third Forecast July 2005 |
Estimate January 2006 |
Final July 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 5.4 |
5.7 |
4.9 |
3.5 |
2.0 |
| Montana | 4.8 |
5.3 |
4.9 |
5.9 |
2.8 |
| North Dakota | 5.0 |
5.6 |
5.9 |
4.4 |
7.3 |
| South Dakota | 5.3 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
6.3 |
1.9 |
| Wisconsin | 5.0 |
4.3 |
5.5 |
4.3 |
2.8 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.4 |
Housing Units Authorized
| Area | First Forecast July 2004 |
Second Forecast January 2005 |
Third Forecast July 2005 |
Estimate January 2006 |
Final July 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.7 |
4.4 |
-8.5 |
-12.9 |
-12.0 |
| Montana | 4.0 |
2.1 |
25.1 |
11.3 |
9.5 |
| North Dakota | 4.0 |
3.4 |
83.6 |
23.9 |
21.5 |
| South Dakota | -2.3 |
6.9 |
13.4 |
2.1 |
5.4 |
| Wisconsin | 1.7 |
2.5 |
4.8 |
0.7 |
-3.6 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 10.5 | 9.9 | 19.5 | 2.5 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 16.6 | 16.0 | 22.2 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | -6.1 | -6.1 | -2.7 |
