Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2006

Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized

Nonfarm Employment

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Area First Forecast
July 2005
Second Forecast
January 2006
Third Forecast
July 2006
Estimate
January 2007
Final
July 2007
Minnesota 0.2 1.3 1.5 2.5 0.5
Montana 1.3 1.7 1.9 3.7 2.6
North Dakota 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.4 2.3
South Dakota 1.2 0.9 2.2 2.2 2.2
Wisconsin 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.5 0.7
Upper Peninsula of Michigan 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.3 -1.0
Avg Variance From Final 0.9 0.80.5 0.8  
Historical Avg Variance 1.1 1.1 0.9    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance -0.2 -0.3 -0.4    

 

Unemployment Rate

Area First Forecast
July 2005
Second Forecast
January 2006
Third Forecast
July 2006
Estimate
January 2007
Final
July 2007
Minnesota 4.7 3.9 4.3 3.8 4.2
Montana 4.3 4.2 3.2 3.6 3.1
North Dakota 3.4 3.6 3.2 3.4 3.3
South Dakota 3.8 3.9 3.4 3.3 3.1
Wisconsin 5.3 5.1 4.7 4.9 4.8
Upper Peninsula of Michigan 7.4 7.6 5.9 8.0 7.3
Avg Variance From Final 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.3  
Historical Avg Variance 0.7 0.6 0.5    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance -0.1 0.0 -0.3    

 

Personal Income

Area First Forecast
July 2005
Second Forecast
January 2006
Third Forecast
July 2006
Estimate
January 2007
Final
July 2007
Minnesota 4.6 5.4 5.7 6.1 5.3
Montana 5.0 5.9 6.6 7.4 6.7
North Dakota 6.4 3.4 4.2 3.3 3.2
South Dakota 5.2 5.3 5.4 7.4 2.6
Wisconsin 4.8 4.6 4.9 6.3 6.5
Avg Variance From Final 2.0 1.1 1.2 1.3  
Historical Avg Variance 2.7 2.8 2.5    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance -0.7 -1.7 -1.3    

 

Housing Units Authorized

Area First Forecast
July 2005
Second Forecast
January 2006
Third Forecast
July 2006
Estimate
January 2007
Final
July 2007
Minnesota 2.9 4.3 -6.2 -16.8 -38.3
Montana 3.7 -0.7 28.2 -6.5 -19.5
North Dakota 11.6 2.0 -7.8 -15.6 -20.2
South Dakota 5.1 3.7 64.5 7.2 -13.4
Wisconsin 2.4 1.4 3.0 -16.5 -27.6
Avg Variance From Final 28.9 25.9 40.1 14.2  
Historical Avg Variance 16.6 16.0 22.2    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance 12.3 9.9 17.9    

 

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