Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2007

Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized

Nonfarm Employment

Area First Forecast
July 2006
Second Forecast
January 2007
Third Forecast
July 2007
Estimate
January 2008
Final
July 2008
Minnesota 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.5
Montana 1.9 2.1 2.3 3.9 2.3
North Dakota 1.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.0
South Dakota 1.6 1.0 1.1 1.8 1.8
Wisconsin 1.1 0.3 -0.4 0.6 0.5
Upper Peninsula of Michigan 0.8 -0.7 -1.0 0.1 -0.6
Avg Variance From Final 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4  
Historical Avg Variance 1.1 1.1 0.9    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance -0.6 -0.5 -0.4    

 

Unemployment Rate

Area First Forecast
July 2006
Second Forecast
January 2007
Third Forecast
July 2007
Estimate
January 2008
Final
July 2008
Minnesota 4.4 4.0 4.7 4.8 4.7
Montana 3.1 3.4 1.5 2.8 3.7
North Dakota 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.1
South Dakota 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.1 2.7
Wisconsin 4.8 5.2 5.3 5.3 4.5
Upper Peninsula of Michigan 5.8 8.6 7.1 8.3 7.6
Avg Variance From Final 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5  
Historical Avg Variance 0.7 0.6 0.5    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance -0.3 -0.1 0.3    

 

Personal Income

Area First Forecast
July 2006
Second Forecast
January 2007
Third Forecast
July 2007
Estimate
January 2008
Final
July 2008
Minnesota 5.1 4.9 3.3 7.8 5.2
Montana 5.6 5.9 6.6 7.0 6.4
North Dakota 4.5 -2.1 -7.9 3.6 12.0
South Dakota 5.3 5.5 4.5 7.7 10.7
Wisconsin 4.8 4.8 3.4 6.4 3.9
Avg Variance From Final 2.9 4.2 5.7 3.4  
Historical Avg Variance 2.7 2.8 2.5    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance 0.3 1.4 3.2    

 

Housing Units Authorized

Area First Forecast
July 2006
Second Forecast
January 2007
Third Forecast
July 2007
Estimate
January 2008
Final
July 2008
Minnesota 1.1 2.4 -3.5 -17.3 -37.6
Montana 5.5 8.4 13.5 -0.4 -12.6
North Dakota 2.7 2.1 29.9 4.9 -5.7
South Dakota 6.8 4.8 -6.4 5.7 2.6
Wisconsin 1.4 3.1 -5.3 -13.9 -25.2
Avg Variance From Final 20.2 20.9 23.9 12.5  
Historical Avg Variance 16.6 16.0 22.2    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance 3.6 4.9 1.7    

 

Top

 
Latest

Narayana Kocherlakota

Related Links
Federal Reserve Consumer Help