Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2009

Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized

Nonfarm Employment

Area First Forecast
July 2008
Second Forecast
January 2009
Third Forecast
July 2009
Estimate
January 2010
Final
July 2010
Minnesota -0.1 -0.4 -4.9 -3.4 -4.0
Montana 1.4 1.6 -2.7 -0.5 -3.2
North Dakota 2.2 1.5 -1.0 0.7 -0.2
South Dakota -0.2 0.4 -4.5 -1.3 -2.4
Wisconsin -1.3 -0.6 -5.8 -3.6 -4.7
U.P. of Michigan -2.0 -2.4 -5.4 -1.7 -4.2
Avg Variance From Final 3.6 3.4 1.1 1.3  
Historical Avg Variance 1.3 1.3 0.9    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance 2.0 2.1 0.2    

 

Unemployment Rate

Area First Forecast
July 2008
Second Forecast
January 2009
Third Forecast
July 2009
Estimate
January 2010
Final
July 2010
Minnesota 5.6 7.0 10.3 7.9 7.9
Montana 3.1 4.3 8.3 7.0 6.9
North Dakota 3.8 4.1 5.0 4.2 4.2
South Dakota 2.9 3.4 5.6 4.8 5.1
Wisconsin 6.1 5.6 9.8 8.2 9.1
U.P. of Michigan 9.3 11.4 14.2 13.4 12.6
Avg Variance From Final 2.3 1.8 1.2 0.3  
Historical Avg Variance 0.9 0.7 0.5    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance 1.4 1.1 0.6    

 

Personal Income

Area First Forecast
July 2008
Second Forecast
January 2009
Third Forecast
July 2009
Estimate
January 2010
Final
July 2010
Minnesota 4.6 5.0 -0.3 -2.3 -1.4
Montana 6.9 7.0 -1.2 -0.5 0.0
North Dakota -5.3 -6.1 -7.6 -14.7 0.9
South Dakota 4.8 6.3 0.7 0.4 0.9
Wisconsin 3.7 4.0 1.2 -1.5 -0.2
Avg Variance From Final 5.4 6.0 2.5 3.8  
Historical Avg Variance 3.3 3.2 2.9    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance 2.1 2.8 -0.5    

 

Housing Units Authorized

Area First Forecast
July 2008
Second Forecast
January 2009
Third Forecast
July 2009
Estimate
January 2010
Final
July 2010
Minnesota 3.8 -17.0 155.0 -14.0 5.2
Montana 9.2 7.4 -41.7 -4.4 -15.4
North Dakota -1.3 -2.4 -14.2 2.9 13.3
South Dakota -3.5 -0.2 -4.4 -11.5 -12.0
Wisconsin -10.7 -10.8 -10.5 -32.6 -17.0
Avg Variance From Final 11.1 15.7 43.5 11.3  
Historical Avg Variance 18.0 17.3 22.3    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance -6.9 -1.6 21.3    

 

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