Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2010

Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized

Nonfarm Employment

Area First Forecast
July 2009
Second Forecast
January 2010
Third Forecast
July 2010
Estimate
January 2011
Final
July 2011
Minnesota -0.6 -0.4 1.8 1.9 0.8
Montana 1.5 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.2
North Dakota 1.2 2.3 0.7 1.8 4.1
South Dakota -2.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1
Wisconsin -0.9 0.1 1.0 1.0 1.0
U.P. of Michigan -2.1 -1.0 2.6 -0.9 0.7
Avg Variance From Final 2.0 1.2 1.3 0.9  
Historical Avg Variance 1.3 1.3 0.9    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance 0.7 -0.1 0.4    

 

Unemployment Rate

Area First Forecast
July 2009
Second Forecast
January 2010
Third Forecast
July 2010
Estimate
January 2011
Final
July 2011
Minnesota 10.8 8.0 6.8 7.0 7.1
Montana 8.9 7.2 7.5 7.4 7.0
North Dakota 5.0 4.6 4.1 3.7 3.7
South Dakota 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.4 5.0
Wisconsin 8.1 7.5 8.4 7.7 7.9
U.P. of Michigan 13.4 13.2 11.4 13.0 11.3
Avg Variance From Final 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.1  
Historical Avg Variance 0.9 0.7 0.5    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance 0.6 -0.3 -0.3    

 

Personal Income

Area First Forecast
July 2009
Second Forecast
January 2010
Third Forecast
July 2010
Estimate
January 2011
Final
July 2011
Minnesota 2.5 2.3 3.6 3.8 6.7
Montana 2.7 6.0 4.3 4.6 6.5
North Dakota -28.1 -16.9 -19.1 -4.5 12.8
South Dakota 2.4 5.8 5.3 2.3 7.3
Wisconsin 3.2 2.4 2.8 3.9 5.6
Avg Variance From Final 7.6 6.1 5.8 2.6  
Historical Avg Variance 3.3 3.2 2.9    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance 4.3 2.9 2.8    

 

Housing Units Authorized

Area First Forecast
July 2009
Second Forecast
January 2010
Third Forecast
July 2010
Estimate
January 2011
Final
July 2011
Minnesota 42.5 -56.4 -30.0 20.1 -3.2
Montana 79.2 28.3 38.1 23.9 16.3
North Dakota 19.3 -3.4 27.5 12.2 23.0
South Dakota 16.1 -2.1 -2.8 -5.5 -19.6
Wisconsin 44.0 -35.0 1.8 2.8 -7.9
Avg Variance From Final 39.7 26.5 17.0 12.9  
Historical Avg Variance 18.0 17.3 22.3    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance 21.8 9.2 -5.3    

 

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