Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2011
Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized
Nonfarm Employment
| Area | First Forecast July 2010 |
Second Forecast January 2011 |
Third Forecast July 2011 |
Estimate January 2012 |
Final July 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 1.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Montana | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.7 | -0.4 |
| North Dakota | 1.0 | 2.0 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 5.4 |
| South Dakota | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Wisconsin | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.4 | -0.7 |
| U.P. of Michigan | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 2.0 | -0.4 |
| Average Variance from Final | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 1.4 | |
| Historical Average Variance | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | ||
| Avg Var - Historical Avg Var | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
Unemployment Rate
| Area | First Forecast July 2010 |
Second Forecast January 2011 |
Third Forecast July 2011 |
Estimate January 2012 |
Final July 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 6.9 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 5.9 |
| Montana | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 6.7 |
| North Dakota | 4.0 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| South Dakota | 4.4 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Wisconsin | 8.5 | 7.6 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 7.1 |
| U.P. of Michigan | 10.8 | 12.2 | 9.4 | 10.6 | 9.6 |
| Average Variance from Final | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | |
| Historical Average Variance | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | ||
| Avg Var - Historical Avg Var | -0.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 |
Personal Income
| Area | First Forecast July 2010 |
Second Forecast January 2011 |
Third Forecast July 2011 |
Estimate January 2012 |
Final July 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.8 | 4.7 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 3.7 |
| Montana | 4.7 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 4.5 |
| North Dakota | 2.8 | -1.1 | 5.3 | 0.0 | 6.5 |
| South Dakota | 5.2 | 5.2 | 7.5 | 4.4 | 3.8 |
| Wisconsin | 4.0 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.5 |
| Average Variance from Final | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.6 | |
| Historical Average Variance | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.2 | ||
| Avg Var - Historical Avg Var | -2.1 | -1.3 | -0.8 |
Housing Units Authorized
| Area | First Forecast July 2010 |
Second Forecast January 2011 |
Third Forecast July 2011 |
Estimate January 2012 |
Final July 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | -27.7 | -10.7 | -7.0 | 67.3 | -0.6 |
| Montana | -4.1 | 0.4 | -8.3 | 24.9 | 9.9 |
| North Dakota | -2.4 | -2.3 | 41.2 | 23.6 | 26.6 |
| South Dakota | 6.4 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 29.0 | 2.7 |
| Wisconsin | -16.0 | -14.6 | -7.6 | 35.3 | -0.2 |
| Average Variance from Final | 17.9 | 13.1 | 9.5 | 29.5 | |
| Historical Average Variance | 17.8 | 16.9 | 21.2 | ||
| Avg Var - Historical Avg Var | 0.1 | -3.8 | -11.7 |
