Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2012

Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized

Nonfarm Employment

Area First Forecast
July 2011
Second Forecast
January 2012
Third Forecast
July 2012
Estimate
January 2013
Final
July 2013
Minnesota 1.7 2.8 1.6 1.7 1.6
Montana 2.9 2.9 1.1 2.3 2.2
North Dakota 4.1 4.8 6.5 4.7 6.4
South Dakota 1.1 2.1 1.8 0.6 1.3
Wisconsin 1.6 1.9 0.7 0.2 1.3
U.P. of Michigan 2.5 3.0 2.1 0.3 0.5
Average Variance from Final 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.8  
Historical Average Variance 1.3 1.2 0.9    
Avg Var - Historical Avg Var -0.5 -0.2 -0.4    

 

Unemployment Rate

Area First Forecast
July 2011
Second Forecast
January 2012
Third Forecast
July 2012
Estimate
January 2013
Final
July 2013
Minnesota 6.2 6.5 5.4 5.7 5.4
Montana 7.0 7.4 5.7 6.0 5.9
North Dakota 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.0
South Dakota 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.0
Wisconsin 7.3 7.3 6.6 6.7 6.9
U.P. of Michigan 8.7 9.4 7.7 8.1 8.8
Average Variance from Final 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.2  
Historical Average Variance 0.8 0.7 0.5    
Avg Var - Historical Avg Var -0.2 0.0 -0.4    

 

Personal Income

Area First Forecast
July 2011
Second Forecast
January 2012
Third Forecast
July 2012
Estimate
January 2013
Final
July 2013
Minnesota 5.8 6.3 6.1 4.6 6.0
Montana 5.5 5.1 5.3 4.5 6.1
North Dakota -17.1 -7.3 -6.2 4.5 19.1
South Dakota 6.0 5.0 4.8 -1.4 2.9
Wisconsin 5.9 5.8 5.1 3.6 5.1
Average Variance from Final 7.3 5.1 5.0 3.9  
Historical Average Variance 3.9 3.6 3.4    
Avg Var - Historical Avg Var 4.2 2.5 2.4    

 

Housing Units Authorized

Area First Forecast
July 2011
Second Forecast
January 2012
Third Forecast
July 2012
Estimate
January 2013
Final
July 2013
Minnesota 54.8 -12.1 63.5 85.0 112.8
Montana 26.1 6.1 19.8 36.5 10.0
North Dakota -7.1 -0.6 59.5 45.3 99.3
South Dakota 23.0 4.5 13.6 164.2 146.7
Wisconsin 34.1 -3.2 8.3 26.8 29.2
Average Variance from Final 61.8 80.6 50.6 25.6  
Historical Average Variance 21.8 22.1 24.1    
Avg Var - Historical Avg Var 40.1 58.5 26.5    

 

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