Tracking Community Bank Consolidation

This page provides baseline estimates for the future number of community banks in the United States and the states of the Ninth District (see the spreadsheet for graphs of these baseline estimates such as the ones for Minnesota below).

Minnesota Trend and Forecast

Minnesota Trend and Forecast

Minnesota Trend and Forecast

Minnesota Trend and Forecast

We will compare actual consolidation—which has been occurring at a steady rate for many years—against these baselines to help determine if consolidation proceeds at a higher than expected rate. We provide these baselines and will update quarterly to help assess claims that increased regulation and supervision in response to the financial crisis will speed the decline of community banks. See Assessing Community Bank Consolidation, Economic Policy Paper 14-1, for details on our baseline estimates and the consolidation of community banks, and the accompanying video for a brief overview.

2014 Q1 Data

United States Minnesota North Dakota South Dakota Montana NW Wisconsin U.P. of Michigan
6337 341 85 70 61 53 21

Model Forecast for 2015 Q1

United States Minnesota North Dakota South Dakota Montana NW Wisconsin U.P. of Michigan
Simple Trend -316 -8 -2 -2 -2 -3 0
-5.0% -2.3% -2.4% -2.9% -3.3% -5.7% 0.0%
Rate of Change -300 -14 -2 -2 -3 -2 -1
-4.7% -4.1% -2.4% -2.9% -4.9% -3.8% -4.8%
Size Dependent -145 -7 -2 -1 -1 -1 0
-2.3% -2.1% -2.4% -1.4% -1.6% -1.9% 0.0%
Bank Survival -646 -40 -9 -5 -6 -4 0
-10.2% -11.7% -10.6% -7.1% -9.8% -7.5% 0.0%
 
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Narayana Kocherlakota