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Contact: Patti Lorenzen
Media Representative
612-204-5261
Patti.Lorenzen@mpls.frb.org

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Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Moderate Economic Growth

MINNEAPOLIS, June 27, 2011—Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis’ midyear economic outlook calls for continued moderate economic growth in the Minnesota economy through 2012. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in Minnesota is expected to grow by a half percent in 2011 and accelerate through 2012, while the unemployment rate should drop to 6.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. Gains in personal income are also expected.

“It looks like the Minnesota economy will continue to strengthen through 2012,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the Minnesota outlook includes information from an inaugural midyear business outlook poll of 151 district businesses and the quarterly agricultural credit conditions survey of 139 district agricultural lenders.

Overall, the Ninth District’s economic recovery has performed better than the nation’s. Employment levels have increased, the manufacturing sector is expanding and consumer spending has increased moderately. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

“Businesses in the Ninth District appear to be bucking some of the gloomy economic sentiment seen across the country,” Madden said. “Businesses expect increased sales, hiring and profits. In addition to the survey results, our statistical model predicts increases in income and employment.”

In addition to increased employment, the forecast models and survey respondents expect growth in personal income and consumer spending. Overall, the pace of personal income growth is expected to increase in 2011 compared with 2010. In 2012, personal income growth rates will slow somewhat from 2011 levels. Businesses that responded to the midyear outlook poll expect consumer spending to increase over the next 12 months. However, survey respondents forecast only modest growth in wages.

Farmers are somewhat upbeat with higher crop prices. However, a late, cool, wet spring is reducing expectations for a bumper harvest. Respondents to the quarterly agricultural credit conditions survey expect higher farm income and increases in capital investment.

More details on the economic forecast for Minnesota and the Ninth District can be found in the July issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

Midyear Outlook BriefingVideo

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis’ midyear economic outlook calls for continued moderate economic growth in Montana through 2012. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in Montana is expected to grow by over 2 percent in both 2011 and 2012, while the unemployment rate should drop to 7.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. Moderate gains in personal income are also expected.

 “The delayed slump in the Montana economy should reverse by the end of 2012,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the Montana outlook includes information from an inaugural midyear business outlook poll of 151 district businesses and the quarterly agricultural credit conditions survey of 139 district agricultural lenders.

Overall, the Ninth District’s economic recovery has performed better than the nation’s. Employment levels have increased, the manufacturing sector is expanding and consumer spending has increased moderately. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

 “Businesses in the Ninth District appear to be bucking some of the gloomy economic sentiment seen across the country,” Madden said. “Businesses expect increased sales, hiring and profits. In addition to the survey results, our statistical model predicts increases in income and employment.”

In addition to increased employment, the forecast models and survey respondents expect growth in personal income and consumer spending. Overall, the pace of personal income growth is expected to increase in 2011 compared with 2010. In 2012, personal income growth rates will slow somewhat from 2011 levels. Businesses that responded to the midyear outlook poll expect consumer spending to increase over the next 12 months. However, survey respondents forecast only modest growth in wages.

Farmers are somewhat upbeat with higher crop prices. However, a late, cool, wet spring is reducing expectations for a bumper harvest. Respondents to the quarterly agricultural credit conditions survey expect higher farm income and increases in capital investment.

More details on the economic forecast for Montana and the Ninth District can be found in the July issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

Midyear Outlook BriefingVideo

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis’ midyear economic outlook calls for continued solid economic growth in North Dakota through 2012. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, rapid employment growth is expected in North Dakota, coming in at over 4 percent in both 2011 and 2012, while the unemployment rate should remain level through 2012.

 “North Dakota’s booming economy is expected to continue through 2012,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the North Dakota outlook includes information from an inaugural midyear business outlook poll of 151 district businesses and the quarterly agricultural credit conditions survey of 139 district agricultural lenders.

Overall, the Ninth District’s economic recovery has performed better than the nation’s. Employment levels have increased, the manufacturing sector is expanding and consumer spending has increased moderately. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

 “Businesses in the Ninth District appear to be bucking some of the gloomy economic sentiment seen across the country,” Madden said. “Businesses expect increased sales, hiring and profits. In addition to the survey results, our statistical model predicts increases in income and employment.”

In addition to increased employment, the forecast models and survey respondents expect growth in personal income and consumer spending. Overall, the pace of personal income growth is expected to increase in 2011 compared with 2010. In 2012, personal income growth rates will slow somewhat from 2011 levels. Businesses that responded to the midyear outlook poll expect consumer spending to increase over the next 12 months. However, survey respondents forecast only modest growth in wages.

Farmers are somewhat upbeat with higher crop prices. However, a late, cool, wet spring is reducing expectations for a bumper harvest. Respondents to the quarterly agricultural credit conditions survey expect higher farm income and increases in capital investment.
More details on the economic forecast for North Dakota and the Ninth District can be found in the July issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

Midyear Outlook BriefingVideo

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

Top

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis’ midyear economic outlook calls for continued modest economic growth in South Dakota through 2012. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in South Dakota is expected to grow slowly in both 2011 and 2012, while the unemployment rate should drop to 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. Average gains in personal income are also expected.

 “South Dakota is a little sluggish coming out of the recession,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the South Dakota outlook includes information from an inaugural midyear business outlook poll of 151 district businesses and the quarterly agricultural credit conditions survey of 139 district agricultural lenders.

Overall, the Ninth District’s economic recovery has performed better than the nation’s. Employment levels have increased, the manufacturing sector is expanding and consumer spending has increased moderately. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

 “Businesses in the Ninth District appear to be bucking some of the gloomy economic sentiment seen across the country,” Madden said. “Businesses expect increased sales, hiring and profits. In addition to the survey results, our statistical model predicts increases in income and employment.”

In addition to increased employment, the forecast models and survey respondents expect growth in personal income and consumer spending. Overall, the pace of personal income growth is expected to increase in 2011 compared with 2010. In 2012, personal income growth rates will slow somewhat from 2011 levels. Businesses that responded to the midyear outlook poll expect consumer spending to increase over the next 12 months. However, survey respondents forecast only modest growth in wages.

Farmers are somewhat upbeat with higher crop prices. However, a late, cool, wet spring is reducing expectations for a bumper harvest. Respondents to the quarterly agricultural credit conditions survey expect higher farm income and increases in capital investment.
More details on the economic forecast for South Dakota and the Ninth District can be found in the July issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

Midyear Outlook BriefingVideo

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

Top

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis’ midyear economic outlook calls for continued moderate economic growth for Michigan’s Upper Peninsula through 2012. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, above average employment growth is expected in the U.P. in both 2011 and 2012, while the unemployment rate should drop to 8.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

“The above-average employment growth rates should start to chip away at the stubbornly high unemployment rates in the U.P.,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the Upper Peninsula outlook includes information from an inaugural midyear business outlook poll of 151 district businesses and the quarterly agricultural credit conditions survey of 139 district agricultural lenders.

Overall, the Ninth District’s economic recovery has performed better than the nation’s. Employment levels have increased, the manufacturing sector is expanding and consumer spending has increased moderately. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

 “Businesses in the Ninth District appear to be bucking some of the gloomy economic sentiment seen across the country,” Madden said. “Businesses expect increased sales, hiring and profits. In addition to the survey results, our statistical model predicts increases in income and employment.”

In addition to increased employment, the forecast models and survey respondents expect growth in personal income and consumer spending. Overall, the pace of personal income growth is expected to increase in 2011 compared with 2010. In 2012, personal income growth rates will slow somewhat from 2011 levels. Businesses that responded to the midyear outlook poll expect consumer spending to increase over the next 12 months. However, survey respondents forecast only modest growth in wages.

Farmers are somewhat upbeat with higher crop prices. However, a late, cool, wet spring is reducing expectations for a bumper harvest. Respondents to the quarterly agricultural credit conditions survey expect higher farm income and increases in capital investment.
More details on the economic forecast for the Upper Peninsula and the Ninth District can be found in the July issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

Midyear Outlook BriefingVideo

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

Top

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis’ midyear economic outlook calls for continued moderate economic growth for the state of Wisconsin through 2012. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in Wisconsin is expected at above average rates in both 2011 and 2012, while the unemployment rate should drop to 7.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. Average gains in personal income are also expected.

 “The above-average employment growth rates should start to chip away at the stubbornly high unemployment rates in Wisconsin,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the Wisconsin outlook includes information from an inaugural midyear business outlook poll of 151 district businesses and the quarterly agricultural credit conditions survey of 139 district agricultural lenders.

Overall, the Ninth District’s economic recovery has performed better than the nation’s. Employment levels have increased, the manufacturing sector is expanding and consumer spending has increased moderately. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

 “Businesses in the Ninth District appear to be bucking some of the gloomy economic sentiment seen across the country,” Madden said. “Businesses expect increased sales, hiring and profits. In addition to the survey results, our statistical model predicts increases in income and employment.”

In addition to increased employment, the forecast models and survey respondents expect growth in personal income and consumer spending. Overall, the pace of personal income growth is expected to increase in 2011 compared with 2010. In 2012, personal income growth rates will slow somewhat from 2011 levels. Businesses that responded to the midyear outlook poll expect consumer spending to increase over the next 12 months. However, survey respondents forecast only modest growth in wages.

Farmers are somewhat upbeat with higher crop prices. However, a late, cool, wet spring is reducing expectations for a bumper harvest. Respondents to the quarterly agricultural credit conditions survey expect higher farm income and increases in capital investment.
More details on the economic forecast for Wisconsin and the Ninth District can be found in the July issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

Midyear Outlook BriefingVideo

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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