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Contact: Patti Lorenzen
Media Representative
612-204-5261
Patti.Lorenzen@mpls.frb.org

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Minneapolis Fed expects economic growth for 2012

MINNEAPOLIS, December 20, 2011—Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Solid Economic Performance in Minnesota in 2012

The 2012 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for continued growth in the Minnesota economy. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in Minnesota is expected to grow by a faster-than-average 2.8 percent, while the unemployment rate should drop to 6.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. About average gains in personal income are also expected.

“The economy in Minnesota performed better than the nation in 2011, and it looks like growth will increase in 2012,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the Minnesota outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 395 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 474 district manufacturers. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

“The surveys and the statistical model both point to solid economic performance in 2012,” Madden said. “Businesses are optimistic for their own operations and expect moderate improvement in Minnesota.”

The surveys of business leaders and manufacturers indicate that businesses expect more sales and production in 2012 and will accomplish this through increased employment and capital investment. They also expect to raise prices.

When asked about their state economy, Minnesota respondents said they expect increased overall consumer spending, employment and business investment. They expect about a 2 percent increase in wages and benefits. However, both the surveys and the statistical model are bearish on housing construction.

More details on the 2012 economic forecast for Minnesota and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2012 Economic Outlook BriefingVideo

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Modest Economic Growth in Montana in 2012

The 2012 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for continued modest growth in the Montana economy. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in Montana is expected to grow by a faster-than-average 2.9 percent, while the unemployment rate should drop to 7.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

“The economy in Montana grew at a modest pace in 2011, and it looks like this will continue in 2012,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the Montana outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 395 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 474 district manufacturers. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

“The surveys and the statistical model point in different directions for Montana’s economic performance in 2012,” Madden said. “The statistical model expects gains, while the survey respondents expect flat activity.”

Montana respondents to the manufacturing survey expect level business investment and consumer spending and slightly increased employment. Montana respondents to the business outlook poll expect relatively flat employment and slight decreases in consumer spending and business investment. Both surveys expect moderate increases in wages and benefits.

However, businesses are more optimistic about their individual operations, with both manufacturers and business leaders expecting more sales and production in 2012. They will accomplish this through increased capital investment and higher prices.

More details on the 2012 economic forecast for Montana and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2012 Economic Outlook BriefingVideo

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Strong Economic Growth in North Dakota in 2012

The 2012 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for continued strong growth in the North Dakota economy. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in North Dakota is expected to grow by a faster-than-average 4.8 percent, while the unemployment rate should drop to 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

“Even with the major floods, the North Dakota economy performed better than the nation in 2011, and we expect strong growth for 2012,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the North Dakota outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 395 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 474 district manufacturers. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

“The surveys and the statistical model both point to solid economic performance in 2012,” Madden said. “Businesses are very optimistic for their own operations and expect strong improvement in North Dakota.”

The surveys of business leaders and manufacturers indicate that businesses expect more sales and production in 2012 and will accomplish this through increased employment and capital investment. They also expect to raise prices.

When asked about their state economy, North Dakota respondents said they expect increased overall consumer spending, employment and business investment. They expect robust increases in wages and benefits.

More details on the 2012 economic forecast for North Dakota and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2012 Economic Outlook BriefingVideo

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Solid Economic Growth in South Dakota in 2012

The 2012 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for continued solid economic growth in the South Dakota economy. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in South Dakota is expected to grow by a faster-than-average 2.1 percent, while the unemployment rate should drop to 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.

“The South Dakota economy grew at a decent pace in 2011, and we expect solid growth for 2012,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the South Dakota outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 395 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 474 district manufacturers. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

“The surveys and the statistical model both point to solid economic performance in 2012,” Madden said. “Businesses are very optimistic for their own operations and expect solid improvement in South Dakota.”

The surveys of business leaders and manufacturers indicate that businesses expect more sales and production in 2012 and will accomplish this through increased employment. They also expect to raise prices.

When asked about their state economy, South Dakota respondents said they expect increased overall consumer spending, employment and business investment. They expect robust increases in wages and benefits.

More details on the 2012 economic forecast for South Dakota and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2012 Economic Outlook BriefingVideo

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Moderate Economic Growth in the Upper Peninsula in 2012

The 2012 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for continued moderate growth in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan economy. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in the U.P. is expected to grow by a faster-than-average 3 percent, while the unemployment rate should drop to 9.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. However, the results of Fed surveys are mixed.

“The U.P. economy expanded in 2011, and based on our statistical models, it looks like this will continue in 2012,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the U.P. outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 395 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 474 district manufacturers. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

“The surveys and the statistical model point in different directions for U.P. economic performance in 2012,” Madden said. “The statistical model expects gains, while the survey respondents expect mixed activity.”

When asked about their state economy, U.P. respondents differed by survey, with the business outlook poll expecting decreases in consumer spending, employment and business investment and the survey of manufacturers expecting slight increases in consumer spending and business investment.

Manufacturers are more optimistic about their individual operations and expect more sales, production, employment and capital investment in 2012. Business leaders from the U.P. expect slight growth in sales, flat employment and some decreases in capital investment. Respondents to both surveys expect to raise prices.

More details on the 2012 economic forecast for the U.P. and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2012 Economic Outlook BriefingVideo

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

Top

Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Modest Economic Growth in Northwestern Wisconsin in 2012

The 2012 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for continued modest growth in the Wisconsin economy. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in Wisconsin is expected to grow by a faster-than-average 1.9 percent, while the unemployment rate should drop to 7.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012. About average gains in personal income are also expected.

“The economy in northwestern Wisconsin grew at a modest pace in 2011, and it looks like this will continue in 2012,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the Wisconsin outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 395 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 474 district manufacturers. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

“The surveys and the statistical model point in different directions for Wisconsin’s economic performance in 2012,” Madden said. “The statistical model expects modest gains, while the survey respondents expect mixed activity.”

When asked about their state economy, Wisconsin respondents differed by survey, with the business outlook poll expecting decreases in consumer spending, employment and business investment and the survey of manufacturers expecting increases. Respondents expect about a 2 percent increase in wages and benefits. In addition, both the business outlook poll and the statistical model are bearish on housing construction.

However, businesses are more optimistic about their individual operations, as both manufacturers and business leaders expect more sales and production in 2012. They will accomplish this through increased employment and capital investment. They also expect to raise prices.

More details on the 2012 economic forecast for Wisconsin and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2012 Economic Outlook BriefingVideo

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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