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Contact: Patti Lorenzen
Media Representative
612-204-5261
Patti.Lorenzen@mpls.frb.org

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Minneapolis Fed Revises Forecasts for Ninth District States

MINNEAPOLIS, March 1, 2012—Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Minnesota employment growth and unemployment rate forecasts revised downward

A revised 2012 economic forecast shows that Minnesota nonfarm employment growth and the unemployment rate are both expected to finish the year lower than forecast last December. However, the revised forecast points to the same conclusion: The Minnesota economy is expected to grow moderately for the remainder of the year.

Nonfarm employment is expected to grow 1.3 percent during 2012, revised downward from 2.8 percent in December’s forecast. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s unemployment rate is predicted to drop to 4.9 percent by fourth quarter 2012, revised downward from 6.5 percent in December’s forecast.

Personal income in Minnesota is expected to grow during 2012, while the forecasting model predicts decreases in home building, similar to the previous forecast.

The revised forecast is based on data through Feb. 7, and therefore includes fourth quarter data, which were not available for the forecast released in December. With the availability of fourth quarter state data and revisions to national data, this revised forecast is based on a more complete set of information.

Ninth District Regional Model Forecast - Data Tables

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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Montana employment growth and unemployment rate forecasts revised downward

A revised 2012 economic forecast shows that Montana nonfarm employment growth and the unemployment rate are both expected to finish the year lower than forecast last December. However, the revised forecast points to the same conclusion: The Montana economy is expected to grow modestly for the remainder of the year.

Nonfarm employment is expected to grow 2 percent during 2012, revised downward from 2.9 percent in December’s forecast. Meanwhile, Montana’s unemployment rate is predicted to drop to 6.6 percent by fourth quarter 2012, revised downward from 7.4 percent in December’s forecast.

Personal income in Montana is expected to grow during 2012, while the forecasting model also predicts increases in home building, similar to the previous forecast.

The revised forecast is based on data through Feb. 7, and therefore includes fourth quarter data, which were not available for the forecast released in December. With the availability of fourth quarter state data and revisions to national data, this revised forecast is based on a more complete set of information.

Ninth District Regional Model Forecast - Data Tables

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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North Dakota employment growth forecast revised upward

A revised 2012 economic forecast shows that North Dakota nonfarm employment growth is expected to finish the year higher than forecast last December. The revised forecast supports the same conclusion reached in December: Strong growth is expected for the North Dakota economy for the remainder of the year.

Nonfarm employment is expected to grow 5.5 percent during 2012, revised upward from 4.8 percent in December’s forecast. Meanwhile, North Dakota’s unemployment rate is predicted to remain at 3.4 percent, the same as predicted in December’s forecast.

The forecasting models predict that personal income and housing units authorized in North Dakota will decrease slightly during 2012; however, both of these negative growth predictions come with a great deal of uncertainty. The negative income prediction is likely due to volatile changes in farm income, which make for difficult forecasting. Meanwhile, the housing units authorized forecast does not account for the sharp increase in demand for housing in the western oil-producing counties.

The revised forecast is based on data through Feb. 7, and therefore includes fourth quarter data, which were not available for the forecast released in December. With the availability of fourth quarter state data and revisions to national data, this revised forecast is based on a more complete set of information.

Ninth District Regional Model Forecast - Data Tables

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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South Dakota employment growth and unemployment rate forecasts revised downward

A revised 2012 economic forecast shows that South Dakota nonfarm employment growth and the unemployment rate are both expected to finish the year slightly lower than forecast last December. The revised forecast points to the same conclusion reached in December: Solid growth is expected for the South Dakota economy during the remainder of the year.

Nonfarm employment is expected to grow 2 percent during 2012, revised downward from 2.1 percent in December’s forecast. Meanwhile, South Dakota’s unemployment rate is predicted to drop to 4 percent by fourth quarter 2012, revised downward from 4.3 percent in December’s forecast.

Personal income in South Dakota is expected to grow during 2012, while the forecasting model also predicts increases in home building, similar to the previous forecast.

The revised forecast is based on data through Feb. 7, and therefore includes fourth quarter data, which were not available for the forecast released in December. With the availability of fourth quarter state data and revisions to national data, this revised forecast is based on a more complete set of information.

Ninth District Regional Model Forecast - Data Tables

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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Revised forecast more optimistic for Upper Peninsula of Michigan economy

A revised 2012 economic forecast shows that Upper Peninsula Michigan’s nonfarm employment growth is expected to grow faster and the unemployment rate drop lower than forecast last December. The revised forecast provides a more optimistic outlook for the U.P. economy during the remainder of the year.

Nonfarm employment is expected to grow 3.5 percent during 2012, revised upward from 3 percent in December’s forecast. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in the U.P. is predicted to drop to 8 percent by fourth quarter 2012, revised downward from 9.4 percent in December’s forecast.

The revised forecast is based on data through Feb. 7, and therefore includes fourth quarter data, which were not available for the forecast released in December. With the availability of fourth quarter state data and revisions to national data, this revised forecast is based on a more complete set of information.

Ninth District Regional Model Forecast - Data Tables

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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Wisconsin employment growth and unemployment rate forecasts revised downward

A revised 2012 economic forecast shows that Wisconsin nonfarm employment growth and the unemployment rate are both expected to finish the year lower than forecast last December. The revised forecast suggests that modest growth is expected for the Wisconsin economy during the remainder of the year.

Nonfarm employment is expected to grow 0.2 percent during 2012, revised downward from 1.9 percent in December’s forecast. Meanwhile, Wisconsin’s unemployment rate is predicted to drop to 6.9 percent by fourth quarter 2012, revised downward from 7.3 percent in December’s forecast.

Personal income in Wisconsin is expected to grow during 2012, although somewhat slower than previously forecast, while home building is predicted to decrease.

The revised forecast is based on data through Feb. 7, and therefore includes fourth quarter data, which were not available for the forecast released in December. With the availability of fourth quarter state data and revisions to national data, this revised forecast is based on a more complete set of information. Note that the Wisconsin forecast is for the entire state, not just the Ninth District portion.

Ninth District Regional Model Forecast - Data Tables

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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