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Contact: Patti Lorenzen
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612-204-5261
Patti.Lorenzen@mpls.frb.org

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Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Economic Growth in the Ninth District for 2014

MINNEAPOLIS, January 6, 2014—Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Moderate Growth for Minnesota in 2014

The 2014 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for moderate growth in the Minnesota economy. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in Minnesota is expected to grow by 1.2 percent, while the unemployment rate is predicted to drop from 4.6 percent in November 2013 to 4.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014. Growth in personal income is anticipated to be 5 percent.

“The Minnesota economy continued on its upward trend in 2013, which will continue into 2014, but the pace of growth may slow slightly,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the Minnesota outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 321 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 485 district manufacturers. The poll and survey were mailed out in early November and returned by Dec. 10. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

“Both the statistical model and surveys point to a moderate economic performance in 2014,” Madden said. “Businesses expect growth for their own operations and the state economy.”

The survey of business leaders indicates that businesses expect more sales and investment in 2014 and expect to raise prices. Respondents to the manufacturing survey are more bullish about their own operations and expect productivity and profits to rise.

In regard to the state economy, both the surveys and the statistical model see increases in housing construction. They also expect increased business investment and higher prices.

More details on the 2014 economic forecast for Minnesota and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2014 Economic Outlook Briefing:
Video and Presentation

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Solid Economic Growth for Montana in 2014

The 2014 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for faster growth in the Montana economy. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in Montana is expected to grow by a moderate 1.3 percent, while the unemployment rate should drop from 5.2 percent in November 2013 to 4.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014.

“The economy in Montana grew at a below-average pace in 2014, but it looks like the pace of growth will increase in 2014,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the Montana outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 321 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 485 district manufacturers. The poll and survey were mailed out in early November and returned by Dec. 10. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

“The surveys and the statistical model both suggest economic gains for Montana in 2014,” Madden said. “Business leaders are generally more optimistic than the manufacturer respondents.”

Montana respondents to the manufacturing survey expect slight economic growth. They expect flat consumer spending and modest increases in business investment and employment. Montana respondents to the business outlook poll predict solid increases in business investment, employment and housing starts. Both surveys expect modest increases in wages and benefits.

Businesses are mixed about their individual operations, with the manufacturers expecting flat to lower investment, and employment and business leaders expecting more solid growth in investment and employment in 2014. Both surveys see higher sales and prices.

More details on the 2014 economic forecast for Montana and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2014 Economic Outlook Briefing:
Video and Presentation

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Strong Economic Growth for North Dakota in 2014

The 2014 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for continued robust growth in the North Dakota economy. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in North Dakota is expected to grow by a faster-than-average 4.5 percent, while the unemployment rate is predicted to drop from 2.6 percent in November 2013 to 2.3 percent by the fourth quarter of 2014. In addition, almost 9 percent growth in personal income is expected.

“Oil and gas continued to boom in 2013, and this should drive the North Dakota economy higher in 2014,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the North Dakota outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 321 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 485 district manufacturers. The poll and survey were mailed in early November and returned by Dec. 10. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

“The surveys and the statistical model both point to strong economic growth in 2014,” Madden said. “The lack of skilled labor may constrain growth, as almost all of the business respondents reported challenges finding workers in North Dakota.”

The surveys of business leaders and manufacturers indicate that businesses expect a great year with more sales, production, capital investment and employment in 2014. They also expect to raise prices, wages and benefits.

When asked about their state economy, North Dakota respondents were very optimistic and expect increased employment, business investment and consumer spending.

More details on the 2014 economic forecast for North Dakota and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2014 Economic Outlook Briefing:
Video and Presentation

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Moderate Economic Growth for South Dakota in 2014

The 2014 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for moderate economic growth in South Dakota. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in South Dakota is expected to grow by a below-average 0.9 percent, while the unemployment rate should drop slightly from 3.6 percent in November 2013 to 3.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014. Over 5 percent growth in personal income is expected.

“The South Dakota economy grew at a solid pace in 2013, and we expect slightly slower growth for 2014,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the South Dakota outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 321 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 485 district manufacturers. The poll and survey were mailed out in early November and returned by Dec. 10. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

“The surveys and the statistical model both point to moderate economic growth in 2014,” Madden said. “Businesses see sturdy growth for their own operations and expect slight improvement for the state economy.”

The surveys of business leaders and manufacturers indicate that businesses expect more activity at their firms with solid sales and production in 2014. They also expect to hire more employees and raise prices.

When asked about their state economy, South Dakota respondents to the business outlook poll said they expect flat employment and some increases in overall consumer spending and business investment.

More details on the 2014 economic forecast for South Dakota and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2014 Economic Outlook Briefing:
Video and Presentation

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Modest Economic Growth for the Upper Peninsula in 2014

The 2014 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for continued modest growth in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan economy. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in the U.P. is expected to grow by an average 0.7 percent, while the unemployment rate should drop from 10.2 percent in November 2013 to 9.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014.

“The U.P. economy expanded at its modest average pace in 2013, and this should continue in 2014,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the U.P. outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 321 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 485 district manufacturers. The poll and survey were mailed out in early November and returned by Dec. 10. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

“The surveys and the statistical model point to soft economic growth in the U.P. during 2014,” Madden said. “The statistical model expects average growth, while the survey respondents expect mixed increases in activity.” When asked about their state economy, U.P. respondents expected decreases in business investment and consumer spending, and slight growth in employment.

Business leaders are also mixed about their own operations, as they expect increased sales and investment, but declines in employment. Respondents to the manufacturing survey expect increases in production, employment and investment.

More details on the 2014 economic forecast for the U.P. and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2014 Economic Outlook Briefing:
Video and Presentation

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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Minneapolis Fed Forecasts Slower Economic Growth in Northwestern Wisconsin in 2014

The 2014 economic outlook from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis calls for decelerating growth in the northwestern Wisconsin economy. Based on the Minneapolis Fed’s statistical model, employment in the whole state of Wisconsin is expected to grow by a slower-than-average 0.8 percent, while the unemployment rate is predicted to drop from 6.3 percent in November 2013 to 6.0 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014. A modest 4 percent growth in personal income is expected.

“The economy in Wisconsin grew at a moderate pace in 2013, but the forecast model expects slower growth in 2014,” said Toby Madden, regional economist at the Minneapolis Fed.

In addition to the forecasting model, the Northwestern Wisconsin outlook includes information from the annual fedgazette business outlook poll of 321 district businesses and the annual manufacturing survey of 485 district manufacturers. The poll and survey were mailed out in early November and returned by Dec. 10. The Ninth District includes Minnesota, Montana, North and South Dakota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

“While the statistical model expects decelerating growth, survey respondents from northwestern Wisconsin are somewhat optimistic for their local economies in 2014,” Madden said. “Business leaders see growth at their own companies, but expect level state economic activity.”

When asked about their state economy, respondents expected flat to lower activity. Business leaders expect decreases in consumer spending and flat business investment and employment. However, Northwestern Wisconsin respondents to the manufacturing survey expected increased economic growth and overall corporate profits.

Businesses are more optimistic about their individual operations, as both manufacturers and business leaders expect more sales, capital investment and employment gains in 2014.

More details on the 2014 economic forecast for Wisconsin and the Ninth District can be found in the January issue of the fedgazette, the Minneapolis Fed’s quarterly newspaper, as well as at minneapolisfed.org.

2014 Economic Outlook Briefing:
Video and Presentation

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is one of 12 regional Reserve Banks that, with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., make up the Federal Reserve System, the nation’s central bank. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is responsible for the Ninth Federal Reserve District, which includes Montana, North and South Dakota, Minnesota, northwestern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis participates in setting national monetary policy, supervises numerous banking organizations, and provides a variety of payments services to financial institutions and the U.S. government.

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