Quarterly Review 1542

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A Bleak Outlook for the U.S. Economy

David E. Runkle - Senior Economist

Fall 1991

Abstract
Economic activity in the United States has been growing more slowly than average for the past three years, and it is not likely to speed up soon. The slow growth has been due primarily to pessimism among consumers about their long-run personal income. That pessimism—and its extension to the U.S. economy as a whole—is confirmed by data on real estate prices and labor force participation and by the 1992–93 forecast of a Bayesian vector autoregression model.


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