Staff Report 170

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Alternative Computational Approaches to Inference in the Multinomial Probit Model

John F. Geweke
Michael P. Keane
David E. Runkle - Senior Economist

Published May 1, 1994

Abstract
This research compares several approaches to inference in the multinomial probit model, based on Monte-Carlo results for a seven choice model. The experiment compares the simulated maximum likelihood estimator using the GHK recursive probability simulator, the method of simulated moments estimator using the GHK recursive simulator and kernel-smoothed frequency simulators, and posterior means using a Gibbs sampling-data augmentation algorithm. Each estimator is applied in nine different models, which have from 1 to 40 free parameters. The performance of all estimators is found to be satisfactory. However, the results indicate that the method of simulated moments estimator with the kernel-smoothed frequency simulator does not perform quite as well as the other three methods. Among those three, the Gibbs sampling-data augmentation algorithm appears to have a slight overall edge, with the relative performance of MSM and SML based on the GHK simulator difficult to determine.


Published In: Review of Economics and Statistics (Vol. 76, No. 4, November 1994, pp. 609-632)

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