Daniel M. Chin
John F. Geweke
Preston J. Miller - Former Vice President and Monetary Adviser
Published June 1, 2000
This paper presents a new method for predicting turning points. The paper formally defines a turning point; develops a probit model for estimating the probability of a turning point; and then examines both the in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting performance of the model. The model performs better than some other methods for predicting turning points.
Download Paper (PDF)