Annual Reports
Special Studiesthe recession and recovery in perspective
The 2007-2009 recession is widely thought to have ended sometime last summer. How bad was this recession, and how quickly is the economy recovering? How does this recession and recovery compare to previous cycles?
The official month (quarter) marking the end of this recession, and the start of the recovery, has yet to be determined (see discussion below). Until the official date is announced, July 2009 (the third quarter) is used as an estimate.
Mouse over the chart and select individual recessions to compare.
Notes:
1. Employment is nonfarm payroll employment calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2. Open data table for data on individual recessions and recoveries.
3. *Estimate. Until the official date marking the end of the 2007 recession is announced by the NBER, July 2009 (the third quarter) is used as an estimate.
Mouse over the chart and select individual recessions to compare.
Notes:
1. Output is gross domestic product adjusted for inflation as calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2. Open data table for data on individual recessions and recoveries.
3. *Estimate. Until the official date marking the end of the 2007 recession is announced by the NBER, July 2009 (the third quarter) is used as an estimate.
* Mildest, median, and harshest lines reflect the smallest, median, and largest declines as of each month; they do not reflect specific individual recessions.
Notes:
1. Employment is nonfarm payroll employment calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2. Postwar recessions include the 10 recessions as defined by the NBER that started between 1946 and 2006.
3. Open data table to see how the mildest, median and harshest lines are calculated, and for data on individual recessions.
* Mildest, median, and harshest lines reflect the smallest, median, and largest declines as of each quarter; they do not reflect specific individual recessions.
Notes:
1. Output is gross domestic product adjusted for inflation as calculated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2. Postwar recessions include the 10 recessions as defined by the NBER that started between 1946 and 2006.
3. Open data table to see how the mildest, median and harshest lines are calculated, and for data on individual recessions.
Notes:
1. The largest percentage decline for the current recession has yet to be determined: thus, the ? for the current recession.
2. Individual data series often peak before or after the official NBER start of a recession. For example, employment in the 1973 recession rose 0.9 percent before falling 2.8 percent from the employment peak.
Note: The largest percentage decline in GDP for the current recession appears to have been in Q2 2009, and will be finalized when the NBER makes a determination on the extact month the current recession ended.
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Employment is nonfarm payroll employment calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Notes:
1. Data from 1990 to the present are seasonally adjusted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data prior to 1990 are seasonally adjusted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis using the Census Bureau's X11 procedure.
2. BLS (www.bls.gov) data on state employment are available for all states and all postwar recessions with the following exceptions: Alaska and Hawaii data for the 1948, 1953, and 1957 recessions; Michigan data for the 1948 and 1953 recessions; and Minnesota data for the 1948 recession.
View seasonally adjusted employment by state for every month since January 1939
Background on Recession/Recovery in Perspective
This page places the current economic downturn and recovery into historical (post-WWII) perspective. It compares output and employment changes from the 2007-2009 recession and subsequent recovery with the same data for the 10 previous recessions and recoveries that have occurred since 1946.
This page provides a current assessment of 'how bad' the 2007-2009 recession was relative to past recessions, and of how quickly the economy is recovering relative to past recoveries. It will continue to be updated as new data are released. This page does not provide forecasts, and the information should not be interpreted as such.
The charts provide information about the length and depth of recessions, and the robustness of recoveries.
Post-WWII Recessions
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research determines the beginning and ending dates of U.S. recessions. http://www.nber.org/cycles.html
It has determined that the U.S. economy experienced 10 recessions from 1946 through 2006. The committee determined that the 2007-2009 recession began in December 2007. The ending date has not yet been determined. Ending dates are typically announced several months after the recession officially ends.
http://www.nber.org/cycles/dec2008.html
Length of Recessions
The 10 previous postwar recessions ranged in length from 6 months to 16 months, averaging about 10 1/2 months. The 2007-09 recession was almost certainly the longest recession in the postwar period. But the total length of the recession will only be known when the Business Cycle Dating Committee retrospectively determines the final month of the recession.
Depth of Recessions
The severity of a recession is determined in part by its length; perhaps even more important is the magnitude of the decline in economic activity. That is, how much do employment and output fall?
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