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Working Papers

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Working Paper 716 (October 2014)

The Glass Ceiling and the Paper Floor: Gender Differences among Top Earners, 1981–2012
Fatih Guvenen, Greg Kaplan, Jae Song
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 715 (September 2014)

An Assignment Model of Knowledge Diffusion and Income Inequality
Erzo G.J. Luttmer
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 714 (July 2014)

Liquidity Traps and Monetary Policy: Managing a Credit Crunch
Francisco Buera, Juan Pablo Nicolini
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 713 (May 2014)

Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation? Evidence from U.S. Cities
Terry J. Fitzgerald, Juan Pablo Nicolini
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]
[Additional Information is available for this paper]

Working Paper 712 (Revised October 2014)

The Illusion of School Choice: Empirical Evidence from Barcelona
Caterina Calsamiglia, Maia Guell
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 711 (April 2014)

The Over-the-Counter Theory of the Fed Funds Market: A Primer
Gara Afonso, Ricardo Lagos
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 710 (March 2014)

Trade Dynamics in the Market for Federal Funds
Gara Afonso, Ricardo Lagos
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 709 (March 2014)

Search-Based Models of Money and Finance: An Integrated Approach
Alberto Trejos, Randall Wright
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 708 (March 2014)

An Empirical Study of Trade Dynamics in the Fed Funds Market
Gara Afonso, Ricardo Lagos
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 707 (June 2013)

The Age-Time-Cohort Problem and the Identification of Structural Parameters in Life-Cycle Models
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 706 (May 2013)

Portfolio Choices and Risk Preferences in Village Economies
Pierre-Andre Chiappori, Krislert Samphantharak, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Robert Townsend
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 705 (April 2013)

Reconciling Consumption Inequality with Income Inequality
Vadym Lepetyuk, Christian A. Stoltenberg
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 704 (April 2013)

Women’s Emancipation through Education: A Macroeconomic Analysis
Fatih Guvenen, Michelle Rendall
Published In: Social Science Research Network (Electronic Journal)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 703 (February 2013)

The Stolper-Samuelson Effects of a Decline in Aggregate Consumption
Erzo G.J. Luttmer
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 702 (February 2013)

Optimal Devaluations
Constantino Hevia, Juan Pablo Nicolini
Published In: IMF Economic Review (Vol. 61, 2013, pp. 22-51)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 701 (August 2012)

Real-Time Forecasting with a Mixed-Frequency VAR
Frank Schorfheide, Dongho Song
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 700 (Revised September 2013)

Migration, Congestion Externalities, and the Evaluation of Spatial Investments
Taryn Dinkelman, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 699 (August 2012)

Eventually, Noise and Imitation Implies Balanced Growth
Erzo G.J. Luttmer
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 698 (August 2012)

Unconventional Fiscal Policy at the Zero Bound
Isabel Correia, Emmanuel Farhi, Juan Pablo Nicolini, Pedro Teles
Published In: American Economic Review (Vol. 103, No. 4, June 2013)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 697 (Revised December 2013)

Understanding the Long-Run Decline in Interstate Migration
Greg Kaplan, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 696 (Revised March 2012)

Slow Convergence in Economies with Firm Heterogeneity
Erzo G.J. Luttmer
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 695 (February 2012)

Clearing Arrangements in the United States before the Federal Reserve System
Warren E. Weber
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 694 (Revised May 2012)

The Labor Productivity Puzzle
Ellen R. McGrattan, Edward C. Prescott
Published In: Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery (Hoover Institution Press, 2012, pp. 115-154)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]
[Additional Information is available for this paper]

Working Paper 693 (Revised November 2012)

Catch-up Growth Followed by Stagnation: Mexico, 1950–2010
Timothy J. Kehoe, Felipe Meza
Published In: Latin American Journal of Economics (Vol. 48, No. 2, November 2011, pp. 227-268)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 692 (November 2011)

On Efficiently Financing Retirement
Ellen R. McGrattan, Edward C. Prescott
Replaced by Staff Report 472
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 691 (October 2011)

Buyers, Sellers and Middlemen: Variations in Search Theory
Yuet-Yee Wong, Randall Wright
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 690 (October 2011)

Sticky Prices: A New Monetarist Approach
Allen Head, Lucy Qian Liu, Guido Menzio, Randall Wright
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 689 (October 2011)

Endogenous Credit Cycles
Chao Gu, Randall Wright
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 688 (October 2011)

Innovation and Growth with Financial, and other, Frictions
Jonathan Chiu, Cesaire Meh, Randall Wright
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 687 (Revised November 2011)

Technology Capital Transfer
Thomas J. Holmes, Ellen R. McGrattan, Edward C. Prescott
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 686 (April 2011)

Do Newspapers Matter? Short-Run and Long-Run Evidence from the Closure of The Cincinnati Post
Miguel Garrido, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
Replaced by Staff Report 474
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]
[Additional Information is available for this paper]

Working Paper 685 (April 2011)

Costly Financial Intermediation in Neoclassical Growth Theory
Rajnish Mehra, Facundo Piguillem, Edward C. Prescott
Published In: Quantative Economics (Vol. 2, No. 1, March 2011, pp. 1-36)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 684 (March 2011)

Intergenerational Redistribution in the Great Recession
Andrew Glover, Jonathan Heathcote, Dirk Krueger, José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
Replaced by Staff Report 498
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 683 (Revised May 2012)

Heterogeneity and Risk Sharing in Village Economies
Pierre-Andre Chiappori, Krislert Samphantharak, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Robert Townsend
Replaced by Staff Report 483
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 682 (December 2010)

Negative Equity Does Not Reduce Homeowners' Mobility
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
Published In: Quarterly Review (Vol. 35, No. 1, February 2012, pp. 2-14)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 681 (Revised March 2011)

Interstate Migration Has Fallen Less Than You Think: Consequences of Hot Deck Imputation in the Current Population Survey
Greg Kaplan, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
Replaced by Staff Report 458
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]
[Additional Information is available for this paper]

Working Paper 680 (August 2010)

Short and Long Interest Rate Targets
Bernardino Adão, Isabel Correia, Pedro Teles
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 679 (Revised December 2011)

Bank Liability Insurance Schemes Before 1865
Warren E. Weber
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 678 (April 2010)

Models of Growth and Firm Heterogeneity
Erzo G.J. Luttmer
Published In: Annual review of Economics (Vol. 2, pp. 547-576)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 677 (March 2010)

Moving Back Home: Insurance Against Labor Market Risk
Greg Kaplan
Replaced by Staff Report 449
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 676 (December 2009)

A Simple Model of Bank Employee Compensation
Christopher Phelan
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 675 (October 2009)

Boomerang Kids: Labor Market Dynamics and Moving Back Home
Greg Kaplan
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 674 (September 2009)

Risk Sharing, Inequality, and Fertility
Roozbeh Hosseini, Larry E. Jones, Ali Shourideh
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 673 (August 2009)

Prizes and Patents: Using Market Signals to Provide Incentives for Innovations
V. V. Chari, Mikhail Golosov, Aleh Tsyvinski
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 672 (Revised March 2010)

Technology Diffusion and Growth
Erzo G.J. Luttmer
Published In: Journal of Economic Theory (Vol. 147, No. 2, March 2012, pp. 602-622)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 671 (Revised November 2009)

Transition to FDI Openness
Ellen R. McGrattan
Replaced by Staff Report 454
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 670 (Revised October 2010)

Capital Taxation During the U.S. Great Depression
Ellen R. McGrattan
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 669 (March 2009)

A Theory of Outsourcing and Wage Decline
Thomas J. Holmes, Julia Thornton Snider
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 668 (Revised June 2009)

Economies of Density versus Natural Advantage: Crop Choice on the Back Forty
Thomas J. Holmes, Sanghoon Lee
Published In: The Review of Economics and Statistics (Vol. 94, No. 1, February 2012, pp. 1-19)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 667 (October 2008)

Technical Notes on Facts and Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008
Maxim Troshkin
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 666 (October 2008)

Facts and Myths about the Financial Crisis of 2008
V. V. Chari, Lawrence J. Christiano, Patrick J. Kehoe
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 665 (September 2008)

Business Start-Ups and Productive Efficiency
Hakki Yazici
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 664 (July 2008)

New Keynesian Models: Not Yet Useful for Policy Analysis
V. V. Chari, Patrick J. Kehoe, Ellen R. McGrattan
Replaced by Staff Report 409
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 663 (June 2008)

Accounting for Private Information
Laurence Ales, Pricila Maziero
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 662 (May 2008)

On the Need for a New Approach to Analyzing Monetary Policy
Andrew Atkeson, Patrick J. Kehoe
Replaced by Staff Report 412
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 661 (May 2008)

Temporary Price Changes and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy
Patrick J. Kehoe, Virgiliu Midrigan
Replaced by Staff Report 413
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 660 (April 2008)

Taxation, Aggregates and the Household
Nezih Guner, Remzi Kaygusuz, Gustavo Ventura
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 659 (Revised October 2008)

Sophisticated Monetary Policies
Andrew Atkeson, V. V. Chari, Patrick J. Kehoe
Replaced by Staff Report 419
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 658 (March 2008)

Coin Sizes and Payments in Commodity Money Systems
Angela Redish, Warren E. Weber
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 657 (February 2008)

On the Mechanics of Firm Growth
Erzo G.J. Luttmer
Replaced by Staff Report 440
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 656 (October 2007)

Sticky Prices and Sectoral Real Exchange Rates
Patrick J. Kehoe, Virgiliu Midrigan
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 655 (September 2007)

Intermediated Quantities and Returns
Rajnish Mehra, Facundo Piguillem, Edward C. Prescott
Replaced by Staff Report 405
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]
[Additional Information is available for this paper]

Working Paper 654 (September 2007)

Reply to Solow
V. V. Chari, Patrick J. Kehoe
Replaced by Staff Report 399
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 653 (Revised October 2007)

Asymmetric Expectation Effects of Regime Shifts and the Great Moderation
Zheng Liu, Daniel F. Waggoner, Tao Zha
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 652 (April 2007)

Sales and the Real Effects of Monetary Policy
Patrick J. Kehoe, Virgiliu Midrigan
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 651 (April 2007)

Openness, Technology Capital, and Development
Ellen R. McGrattan, Edward C. Prescott
Replaced by Staff Report 396
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 650 (March 2007)

If Exchange Rates Are Random Walks Then Almost Everything We Say About Monetary Policy Is Wrong
Fernando Alvarez, Andrew Atkeson, Patrick J. Kehoe
Replaced by Staff Report 388
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 649 (January 2007)

New Goods and the Size Distribution of Firms
Erzo G.J. Luttmer
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 648 (December 2006)

On the Needed Quantity of Government Debt
Kathryn Birkeland, Edward C. Prescott
Published In: Quarterly Review (Vol. 31, November 2007, pp. 2-15)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]
[Additional Information is available for this paper]

Working Paper 647 (December 2006)

Comparing Alternative Representations, Methodologies, and Decompositions in Business Cycle Accounting
V. V. Chari, Patrick J. Kehoe, Ellen R. McGrattan
Replaced by Staff Report 384
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 646 (Revised April 2008)

Technology Capital and the U.S. Current Account
Ellen R. McGrattan, Edward C. Prescott
Replaced by Staff Report 406
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]
[Additional Information is available for this paper]

Working Paper 645 (October 2006)

Consumer Search and Firm Growth
Erzo G.J. Luttmer
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 644 (Revised August 2007)

Investment-Specific Technological Change, Skill Accumulation, and Wage Inequality
Hui He, Zheng Liu
Published In: Review of Economic Dynamics (Vol. 11, Issue 2, April 2008, pp. 314-334)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 643 (July 2006)

Measurement with Minimal Theory
Ellen R. McGrattan
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]
[Additional Information is available for this paper]

Working Paper 642 (Revised July 2006)

New Evidence on State Banking Before the Civil War
Warren E. Weber
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 641 (Revised March 2006)

A Model of Banknote Discounts
Laurence Ales, Francesca Carapella, Pricila Maziero, Warren E. Weber
Published In: Journal of Economic Theory (Vol. 142, No. 1, September 2008, pp. 5-27)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 640 (Revised December 2005)

Dynamic Contracting, Persistent Shocks and Optimal Taxation
Yuzhe Zhang
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 639 (October 2005)

Stochastic Optimal Growth with a Non-Compact State Space
Yuzhe Zhang
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 638 (September 2005)

Accounting for the Heterogeneity in Retirement Wealth
Fang Yang
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 637 (August 2005)

Smooth Nonexpected Utility without State Independence
Hengjie Ai
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 636 (Revised September 2005)

Expensed and Sweat Equity
Ellen R. McGrattan, Edward C. Prescott
Replaced by Staff Report 369
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 635 (Revised August 2006)

Consumption Over the Life Cycle? How Different Is Housing?
Fang Yang
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 634 (Revised December 2005)

Early State Banks in the United States: How Many Were There and When Did They Exist?
Warren E. Weber
Published In: Journal of Economic History (Vol. 66, No. 6, June 2006, pp. 433-455)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 633 (Revised July 2004)

The Size Distribution of Firms in an Economy with Fixed and Entry Costs
Erzo G.J. Luttmer
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 632 (June 2004)

Taxation, Entrepreneurship and Wealth
Marco Cagetti, Mariacristina De Nardi
Replaced by Staff Report 340
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 631 (Revised May 2005)

A Critique of Structural VARs Using Real Business Cycle Theory
V. V. Chari, Patrick J. Kehoe, Ellen R. McGrattan
Replaced by Staff Report 364
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]
[Additional Information is available for this paper]

Working Paper 630 (January 2004)

Efficiency with Endogenous Population Growth
Mikhail Golosov, Larry E. Jones, Michele Tertilt
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 629 (October 2003)

Banknote Prices in the United States Prior to 1860
Warren E. Weber
Replaced by Staff Report 344
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 628 (January 2003)

Designing Optimal Disability Insurance
Mikhail Golosov, Aleh Tsyvinski
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 627 (Revised October 2005)

Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium
Fernando Alvarez, Andrew Atkeson, Patrick J. Kehoe
Replaced by Staff Report 371
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 626 (November 2002)

The Optimal Degree of Discretion in Monetary Policy
Susan Athey, Andrew Atkeson, Patrick J. Kehoe
Replaced by Staff Report 326
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 625 (April 2002)

Business Cycle Accounting
V. V. Chari, Patrick J. Kehoe, Ellen R. McGrattan
Replaced by Staff Report 328
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 624 (September 2002)

Equilibrium and Government Commitment
Marco Bassetto
Published In: Journal of Economic Theory (Vol. 124, No. 1, September 2005, pp. 79-105)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 623 (September 2002)

Banknote Exchange Rate in the Antebellum United States
Warren E. Weber
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 622 (May 2002)

On the Robustness of Herds
V. V. Chari, Patrick J. Kehoe
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 621 (April 2002)

Competitive Equilibria with Limited Enforcement
Patrick J. Kehoe, Fabrizio Perri
Replaced by Staff Report 307
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 620 (Revised August 2003)

Entrepreneurship, Frictions and Wealth
Marco Cagetti, Mariacristina De Nardi
Replaced by Staff Report 322
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 619 (May 2002)

Technical Appendix: Accounting for the Great Depression
V. V. Chari, Patrick J. Kehoe, Ellen R. McGrattan
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 619 (February 2002)

Accounting for the Great Depression
V. V. Chari, Patrick J. Kehoe, Ellen R. McGrattan
Published In: AER, Papers and Proceedings (Vol. 92, No. 2, May 2002, pp. 22-27)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]
[Additional Information is available for this paper]

Working Paper 618 (January 2002)

Prosperity and Depression: 2002 Richard T. Ely Lecture
Edward C. Prescott
Published In: American Economic Review (Vol. 92, No. 2, May 2002, pp. 1-15)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 617 (Revised January 2003)

Consumer Bankruptcy: A Fresh Start
Igor Livshits, James MacGee, Michele Tertilt
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 616 (Revised April 2002)

The Time Consistency of Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Fernando Alvarez, Patrick J. Kehoe, Pablo Neumeyer
Replaced by Staff Report 305
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 615 (June 2001)

Optimal Indirect and Capital Taxation
Mikhail Golosov, Narayana Kocherlakota, Aleh Tsyvinski
Replaced by Staff Report 293
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 614 (Revised October 2001)

The advantage of transparent instruments of monetary policy
Andrew Atkeson, Patrick J. Kehoe
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 613 (April 2001)

On the optimality of transparent monetary policy
Susan Athey, Andrew Atkeson, Patrick J. Kehoe
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 612 (March 2001)

A Game-Theoretic View of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level
Marco Bassetto
Published In: Econometrica (Vol. 70, No. 6, November 2002, pp. 2167-2195)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 611 (January 2001)

Exhuming Q: Market Power Capital Market Imperfections
Russell Cooper, Joao Ejarque
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 610 (Revised July 2001)

Taxes, Regulations, and Asset Prices
Ellen R. McGrattan, Edward C. Prescott
Replaced by Staff Report 309
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 609 (January 2001)

Interest Rates and Inflation
Fernando Alvarez, Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Warren E. Weber
Published In: American Economic Review (Vol. 91, No. 2, May 2001, pp. 219-225)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 608 (January 2001)

Limited Enforcement and Efficient Interbank Arrangements
Thorsten V. Koppl, James MacGee
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 607 (November 2000)

The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade
Fumio Hayashi, Edward C. Prescott
Published In: The economics of an aging population: Macroeconomic issues (2004, pp. 35-74)
Published In: Review of Economic Dynamics (Vol. 5, No. 1, January 2002, pp. 206-235)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 606 (Revised July 2001)

The Transition to a New Economy After the Second Industrial Revolution
Andrew Atkeson, Patrick J. Kehoe
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 605 (August 2000)

Money, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates With Endogenously Segmented Asset Markets
Fernando Alvarez, Andrew Atkeson, Patrick J. Kehoe
Replaced by Staff Report 278
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 604 (September 2000)

Finite Memory and Imperfect Monitoring
Harold L. Cole, Narayana Kocherlakota
Replaced by Staff Report 287
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 603 (July 2000)

When should labor contracts be nominal?
Antoine Martin, Cyril Monnet
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 602 (August 2000)

On the Equilibrium Concept for Overlapping Generations Organizations
Edward C. Prescott, José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
Replaced by Staff Report 282
[Paper not available on-line]

Working Paper 601 (May 2000)

Costly Banknote Issuance and Interest Rates Under the National Banking System
Antoine Martin, Cyril Monnet, Warren E. Weber
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 600 (March 2000)

Financial Crises as Herds
V. V. Chari, Patrick J. Kehoe
Replaced by Staff Report 316
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 599 (December 1999)

The Macroeconomic Effects of Big Fiscal Shocks: The Case of World War II
Ellen R. McGrattan, Lee E. Ohanian
Replaced by Staff Report 315
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 598 (December 1999)

Predicting the Effects of Federal Reserve Policy in a Sticky-Price Model: An Analytical Approach
Ellen R. McGrattan
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 597 (Revised May 2001)

New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis
Harold L. Cole, Lee E. Ohanian
Published In: Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 112, No. 4, 2004, pp. 779-816)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 596 (September 1999)

Calibration and Bayesian Learning
Nurlan Turdaliev
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 595 (September 1999)

Optimal Monetary Impulse-Response Functions in a Matching Model
Brett Katzman, John Kennan, Neil Wallace
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 594 (February 1999)

Sharing the Risk of Settlement Failure
Hiroshi Fujiki, Edward J. Green, Akira Yamazaki
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 593 (December 1998)

Deposit Insurance: A Reconsideration
John H. Boyd, Chun Chang, Bruce D. Smith
Published In: Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 49, No. 6, September 2002, pp. 1235-1260)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 592 (December 1998)

The Suffolk Bank and the Panic of 1837: How a Private Bank Acted as a Lender-of-Last-Resort
Arthur J. Rolnick, Bruce D. Smith, Warren E. Weber
Published In: Quarterly Review (Vol. 24, No. 2, Spring 2000, pp. 3-13)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 591 (October 1998)

Private Money Creation and the Suffolk Banking System
Bruce D. Smith, Warren E. Weber
Published In: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking (Vol. 31, No. 3, August 1999, pp. 624-659)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 590 (Revised October 1998)

Business Cycle Research: Methods and Problems
Edward C. Prescott
Published In: Cycles, growth and structural change: Theories and empirical evidence (2001, pp. 283-300)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 589 (August 1998)

On the Need for Fiscal Constraints in a Monetary Union
V. V. Chari, Patrick J. Kehoe
Replaced by Staff Report 330
Published In: Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 54, No. 8, November 2007, pp. 2399-2408)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 588 (August 1998)

A Model of Bimetallism
François R. Velde, Warren E. Weber
Published In: Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 108, No. 6, December 2000, pp. 1210-1234)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 587 (May 1998)

The Suffolk Banking System Reconsidered
Arthur J. Rolnick, Warren E. Weber
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 586 (April 1998)

The Role of Damage-Contingent Contracts in Allocating the Risks of Natural Catastrophes
R. Anton Braun, Richard M. Todd, Neil Wallace
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 585 (Revised January 1998)

Moral Hazard Under Commercial and Universal Banking
John H. Boyd, Chun Chang, Bruce D. Smith
Published In: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, Part 2 (Vol. 30, No. 3, August 1998, pp. 426-468)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 584 (Revised November 1997)

Lessons From a Laissez-Faire Payments System: The Suffolk Banking System (1825–1858)
Arthur J. Rolnick, Bruce D. Smith, Warren E. Weber
Published In: Quarterly Review (Vol. 26, No. 4, Fall 2002)
Published In: Quarterly Review (Vol. 22, No. 3, Summer 1998, pp. 11-21)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 583 (July 1997)

Dynamic Games With Hidden Actions and Hidden States
Harold L. Cole, Narayana Kocherlakota
Replaced by Staff Report 254
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 582 (June 1997)

The Economics of Split-Ticket Voting in Representative Democracies
V. V. Chari, Larry E. Jones, Ramon Marimon
Published In: American Economic Review (Vol. 87, No. 5, December 1997, pp. 957-76)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 581 (April 1997)

A Model of Regulated Private Bank-Note Issue
Ricardo de O. Cavalcanti, Neil Wallace
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 580 (March 1997)

Models of Sovereign Debt: Partial vs. General Reputations
Harold L. Cole, Patrick J. Kehoe
Published In: International Economic Review (Vol. 39, No. 1, February 1998, pp. 55-70)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 579 (March 1997)

Shrinking Money and Monetary Business Cycles
Harold L. Cole, Lee E. Ohanian
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 578 (Revised February 1997)

Optimal Allocations With Incomplete Record-Keeping and No Commitment
Narayana Kocherlakota, Neil Wallace
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 577 (Revised March 1997)

A Microfoundation for Incomplete Security Markets
Harold L. Cole, Narayana Kocherlakota
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 576 (October 1996)

Implementing Efficient Allocations in a Model of Financial Intermediation
Edward J. Green, Ping Lin
Published In: Journal of Economic Theory (Vol. 109, No. 1, March 2003, pp. 1-23)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 575 (October 1996)

Seasonal Solow Residuals and Christmas: A Case for Labor Hoarding and Increasing Returns
R. Anton Braun, Charles L. Evans
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 574 (Revised September 1997)

Repeated Insurance Relationships in a Costly State Verification Model: With an Application to Deposit Insurance
Bruce D. Smith, Cheng Wang
Published In: Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 42, No. 2, July 1998, pp. 207-240)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 573 (Revised July 1997)

Inflation and Financial Market Performance
John H. Boyd, Ross Levine, Bruce D. Smith
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 572 (Revised December 1996)

Consolidation in U.S. Banking: Implications for Efficiency and Risk
John H. Boyd, Stanley L. Graham
Published In: Bank mergers and acquisitions (1998, pp. 113-135)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 571 (September 1996)

Will The New $100 Bill Decrease Counterfeiting?
Edward J. Green, Warren E. Weber
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 570 (August 1996)

Simulation-Based Bayesian Inference for Economic Time Series
John F. Geweke
Published In: Simulation- based inference in econometrics (2000, pp. 255-299)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 569 (August 1996)

A Model of a Currency Shortage
Neil Wallace, Ruilin Zhou
Published In: Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 40, No. 3, December 1997, pp. 555-572)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 568 (Revised October 1996)

Short-Run and Long-Run Effects of Changes in Money in a Random Matching Model
Neil Wallace
Published In: Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 105, No. 6, December 1997, pp. 1293-1307)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 567 (August 1996)

Technical Appendix to “Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model”
V. V. Chari, Lawrence J. Christiano, Patrick J. Kehoe
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 566 (July 1996)

Reassessing Aggregate Returns to Scale With Standard Theory and Measurement
Harold L. Cole, Lee E. Ohanian
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 565 (May 1996)

Some Explorations Into Optimal Cyclical Monetary Policy
S. Rao Aiyagari, R. Anton Braun
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 564 (January 1996)

Bayesian Inference for Dynamic Choice Models Without the Need for Dynamic Programming
John F. Geweke, Michael P. Keane
Published In: Simulation-based inference in econometrics (2000, pp. 100-131)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 563 (Revised January 1996)

Social Accounting Matrices and Applied General Equilibrium Models
Timothy J. Kehoe
Published In: Applied economics and public policy (Vol. 63, 1998, pp. 59-87)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 562 (November 1995)

The Effects of Open Market Operations In A Model of Intermediation and Growth
Stacey L. Schreft, Bruce D. Smith
Published In: Review of Economic Studies (Vol. 65, No. 3, July 1998, pp. 519-550)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 561 (November 1995)

Unemployment, Migration, and Growth
Valerie R. Bencivenga, Bruce D. Smith
Published In: Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 105, No. 3, June 1997, pp. 582-608)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 560 (November 1995)

Asset Pricing Lessons for Modeling Business Cycles
Michele Boldrin, Lawrence J. Christiano, Jonas D. M. Fisher
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 559 (October 1995)

The Career Decisions of Young Men
Michael P. Keane, Kenneth I. Wolpin
Published In: Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 105, No. 3, June 1997, pp. 473-522)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 558 (October 1995)

Three Contributions to the Theory of Decision Under Uncertainty
Edward J. Green, In-Uck Park
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 557 (October 1995)

A Structural Model of Multiple Welfare Program Participation and Labor Supply
Michael P. Keane, Robert Moffitt
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 556 (Revised November 1995)

Inflation, Financial Markets, & Capital Formation
John H. Boyd, Sangmok Choi, Bruce D. Smith
Published In: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review (Vol. 78, No. 3, May-June 1996, pp. 9-35)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 555 (September 1995)

Posterior Simulators in Econometrics
John F. Geweke
Published In: Advances in economics and econometrics: Theory and applications (Vol. 3, 1997, pp. 128-165)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 554 (September 1995)

Temporal Aggregation in a Multi-Sector Economy With Endogenous Growth
Jean Mercenier, Philippe Michel
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 553 (August 1995)

Prior Density Ratio Class Robustness in Econometrics
John F. Geweke, Lea Petrella
Published In: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (Vol. 16, No. 4, October 1998, pp. 469-478)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 552 (July 1995)

Bayesian Inference for Linear Models Subject to Linear Inequality Constraints
John F. Geweke
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 551 (Revised June 1996)

Transaction Services, Inflation, and Welfare
S. Rao Aiyagari, R. Anton Braun, Zvi Eckstein
Replaced by Staff Report 241
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 550 (Revised April 1996)

Coexistence of Money and Interest-Bearing Securities
S. Rao Aiyagari, Neil Wallace, Randall Wright
Published In: Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 37, No. 3, June 1996, pp. 397-419)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 549 (May 1995)

Neighbors: A Locational Model of Human Capital Acquisition
George T. McCandless Jr.
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 548 (April 1995)

Putty-Clay Capital and Energy
Andrew Atkeson, Patrick J. Kehoe
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 547 (April 1995)

Social Insurance and Transition
Andrew Atkeson, Patrick J. Kehoe
Replaced by Staff Report 202
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 546 (March 1995)

Optimal Social Insurance, Incentives, and Transition
Andrew Atkeson, Patrick J. Kehoe
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 545 (March 1995)

On the Turnover of Business Firms and Business Managers
Thomas J. Holmes, James A. Schmitz, Jr.
Published In: Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 103, Issue 5, October 1995, pp. 1005-1038)
Published In: Innovation, evolution of industry and economic growth (Vol. 2, 2000, pp. 29-62)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 544 (Revised May 1995)

Analyzing a Proposal to Ban State Tax Breaks to Businesses
Thomas J. Holmes
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 543 (Revised April 1995)

Comments on Farmer and Guo's "The Econometrics of Indeterminacy: An Applied Study."
S. Rao Aiyagari
Replaced by Staff Report 196
[Paper not available on-line]

Working Paper 542 (Revised September 1995)

The Evolution of Debt and Equity Markets in Economic Development
John H. Boyd, Bruce D. Smith
Published In: Economic Theory (Vol. 12, No. 3, November 1998, pp. 519-560)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 541 (Revised February 1996)

The Co-Evolution of the Real and Financial Sectors in the Growth Process
John H. Boyd, Bruce D. Smith
Published In: World Bank Economic Review (Vol. 10, No. 2, May 1996, pp. 371-396)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 540 (Revised January 1995)

Bayesian Reduced Rank Regression in Econometrics
John F. Geweke
Published In: Journal of Econometrics (Vol. 75, No. 1, November 1996, pp. 121-146)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 539 (November 1994)

Variable Selection and Model Comparison in Regression
John F. Geweke
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 538 (Revised December 1994)

The Optimal Quantity of Debt
S. Rao Aiyagari, Ellen R. McGrattan
Replaced by Staff Report 203
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 537 (Revised July 1996)

The Use of Debt and Equity in Optimal Financial Contracts
John H. Boyd, Bruce D. Smith
Published In: Journal of Financial Intermediation (Vol. 8, No. 4, October 1999, pp. 270-316)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 536 (Revised September 1995)

The Debasement Puzzle: An Essay on Medieval Monetary Policy
Arthur J. Rolnick, François R. Velde, Warren E. Weber
Published In: Journal of Economic History (Vol 56, Num 4, December 1996, pp. 789-808)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 525 (Revised June 1995)

Interpreting Monetary Stabilization in a Growth Model With Credit Goods Production
S. Rao Aiyagari, Zvi Eckstein
Published In: Financial factors in economic stabilization and growth (1996, pp. 197-219)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 516 (Revised June 1995)

Government Transaction Policy, the Medium of Exchange, and Welfare
S. Rao Aiyagari, Neil Wallace
Published In: Journal of Economic Theory (Vol. 74, No. 1, May 1997, pp. 1-18)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 510 (March 1993)

Patterns of Exchange, Fiat Money, and the Welfare Costs of Inflation
Irasema Alonso
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 508 (Revised March 1994)

Optimal Capital Income Taxation With Incomplete Markets, Borrowing Constraints, and Constant Discounting
S. Rao Aiyagari
Published In: Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 103, No. 6, December 1995, pp. 1158-1175)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 502 (Revised December 1993)

Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving
S. Rao Aiyagari
Published In: Quarterly Journal of Economics (Vol. 109, No. 3, August 1994, pp. 659-684)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 500 (Revised March 1994)

Ex-Dividend Price Behavior of Common Stocks
John H. Boyd, Ravi Jagannathan
Published In: Review of Financial Studies (Vol. 7, No. 4, Winter 1974, pp. 711-741)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 491 (Revised May 1992)

Modeling the Dynamic Impact of North American Free Trade
Timothy J. Kehoe
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 480 (Revised October 1994)

An Evaluation of the Performance of an Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Spanish Economy
Timothy J. Kehoe, Clemente Polo, Ferran Sancho
Published In: Economic Theory (Vol. 6, No. 1, June 1995, pp. 115-141)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 478 (May 1991)

Technical Appendix for Liquidity Effects, Monetary Policy, and the Business Cycle
Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 473 (January 1991)

Technical Appendix to Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Stochastic Growth Model
V. V. Chari, Lawrence J. Christiano, Patrick J. Kehoe
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 467 (November 1990)

Computational Algorithms for Solving Variants of Fuerst's Model
Lawrence J. Christiano
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 460 (Revised October 1991)

Computation and Multiplicity of Equilibria
Timothy J. Kehoe
Published In: Handbook of mathematical economics (Vol. 4, 1991, pp. 2049-2143)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 459 (May 1990)

Algorithms for Explaining Forecast Revisions
Richard M. Todd
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 456 (April 1990)

The Output, Employment, and Interest Rate Effects of Government Consumption
S. Rao Aiyagari, Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum
Published In: Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 30, No. 1, October 1992, pp. 73-86)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 448 (November 1987)

Comment on Romer, "Crazy Explanations for The Productivity Slowdown."
Lawrence J. Christiano
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 445 (Revised May 1992)

Debt Constrained Asset Markets
Timothy J. Kehoe, David K. Levine
Published In: Review of Economic Studies (Vol. 60, No. 4, October 1993, pp. 865-888)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 436 (November 1990)

On Characterizing Equilibria of Economies With Externalities and Taxes as Solutions to Optimization Problems
Timothy J. Kehoe, David K. Levine, Paul M. Romer
Published In: Economic Theory (Vol. 2, No. 1, January 1992, pp. 43-68)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 428 (Revised May 1991)

Existence of Steady States With Positive Consumption in the Kiyotaki-Wright Model
S. Rao Aiyagari, Neil Wallace
Published In: Review of Economic Studies (Vol. 58, No. 5, October 1991, pp. 901-916)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 427 (October 1987)

Intertemporal Substitution and Smoothness of Consumption
Lawrence J. Christiano
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 426 (Revised October 1991)

International Real Business Cycles
David K. Backus, Patrick J. Kehoe, Finn E. Kydland
Replaced by Staff Report 146
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 404 (Revised July 1990)

The Optimum Quantity of Money Revisited
Timothy J. Kehoe, David K. Levine, Michael Woodford
Published In: Economic analysis of markets and games: Essays in honor of Frank Hahn (1992, pp. 501-526)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 393 (Revised June 1991)

Walras' Law and Nonoptimal Equilibria in Overlapping Generations Models
S. Rao Aiyagari
Published In: The legacy of Leon Walras (Vol. 2, 2001, pp. 496-514)
Published In: Journal of Mathematical Economics (Vol. 21, No. 4, 1992, pp. 343-361)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 385 (Revised February 1988)

Organizations in Economic Analysis.
John H. Boyd, Edward C. Prescott, Bruce D. Smith
Published In: Canadian Journal of Economics (Vol 21, Num 3, August 1988, pp. 477-491)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 384 (Revised September 1988)

Implementing Bayesian Vector Autoregressions
Richard M. Todd
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 380 (December 1987)

Technical Appendix to Why Does Inventory Investment Fluctuate So Much? Or: Does the Stock Market Dance to Its Own Music?
Lawrence J. Christiano
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 369 (August 1987)

Technical Appendix to Money Does Granger-Cause Output in the Bivariate Output-Money Relation
Lawrence J. Christiano, Lars Ljungqvist
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 361 (December 1985)

A Continuous Time, General Equilibrium, Inventory-Sales Model
Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 360 (July 1987)

The Banking Crisis of the 1930s: New Evidence From Bank Examination Records
Arthur J. Rolnick
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 357 (May 1987)

Temporal Aggregation and the Stock Adjustment Model of Inventories
Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum
Published In: The rational expectations equilibrium inventory model: Theory and applications (1989, pp. 70-108)
Published In: Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (Vol. 26, Spring 1987, pp. 63-130)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 356 (Revised July 1987)

Equilibrium Existence in an Overlapping Generations Model With Altruistic Preferences
S. Rao Aiyagari
Published In: Journal of Economic Theory (Vol 47, Num 1, February 1989, pp. 130-152)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 341 (July 1987)

Household Choices in Equilibrium
Sumru Altug, Robert A. Miller
Published In: Econometrica (Vol. 58, No. 3, May 1990, pp. 343-570)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 338 (February 1987)

Dynamic Properties of Two Approximate Solutions to a Particular Growth Model
Lawrence J. Christiano
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 325 (Revised March 1987)

Nonmonetary Steady States in Stationary Overlapping Generations Models With Long Lived Agents and Discounting: Multiplicity, Optimality, and Consumption Smoothing
S. Rao Aiyagari
Published In: Journal of Economic Theory (Vol. 45, No. 1, June 1988, pp. 102-127)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 320 (Revised February 1988)

Banking Panics, Information, and Rational Expectations Equilibrium
V. V. Chari, Ravi Jagannathan
Published In: Credit, intermediation, and the macroeconomy: Readings and perspectives in modern financial theory (2004, pp. 265-279)
Published In: Journal of Finance (Vol. 43, No. 3, July 1988, pp. 749-61)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 312 (Revised November 1986)

Optimality and Monetary Equilibria in Stationary Overlapping Generations Models With Long Lived Agents: Growth Versus Discounting
S. Rao Aiyagari
Published In: Journal of Economic Theory (Vol. 43, No. 2, December 1987, pp. 292-313)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 306 (June 1987)

Temporal Aggregation and Structural Inference in Macroeconomics
Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum
Published In: Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy (Vol. 26, Spring 1987, pp. 63-130)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 304 (March 1986)

A Continuous Time, General Equilibrium, Inventory-Sales Model
Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 303 (March 1986)

On the Accuracy of Linear Quadratic Approximations: An Example
Lawrence J. Christiano
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 302 (April 1986)

Temporal Aggregation Bias and Government Policy Evaluation
Lawrence J. Christiano
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 301 (May 1987)

Estimating Continuous Time Rational Expectations Models in Frequency Domain: A Case Study
Lawrence J. Christiano
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 297 (Revised February 1986)

The Limits of Counter-Cyclical Monetary Policy: An Analysis Based on Optimal Control Theory and Vector Autoregressions
Robert B. Litterman
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 296 (Revised January 1986)

Bank Holding Company Diversification Into Nonbank Lines of Business: The Effects on Risk and Rate of Return
John H. Boyd, Stanley L. Graham
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 293 (January 1986)

Government Debt and Taxes
Thomas J. Sargent
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 280 (April 1985)

Identification and Estimation of a Model of Hyperinflation With a Continuum of "Sunspot" Equilibrium
Thomas J. Sargent, Neil Wallace
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 277 (Revised August 1986)

Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations: Some New Evidence
Sumru Altug
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 275 (Revised May 1985)

Inherent Instability in Banking: The Free Banking Experience
Arthur J. Rolnick, Warren E. Weber
Published In: Cato Journal (Vol. 5, No. 3, Winter 1986, pp. 877-890)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 274 (Revised July 1985)

Forecasting With Bayesian Vector Autoregressions Five Years of Experience
Robert B. Litterman
Published In: Economic forecasting (Vol. 1, 1999, pp. 354-85)
Published In: Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (Vol. 4, No. 1, January 1986, pp. 25-38)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 268 (Revised February 1985)

National Monetary Policies in a World Economy: A Role for Cooperation
Preston J. Miller, Neil Wallace
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 265 (Revised June 1985)

Suspension and the Financing of the Civil War: A Critique of Newcomb and Mitchell
Arthur J. Rolnick, Neil Wallace
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 254 (May 1984)

The Costs of Intermediate Targeting
Robert B. Litterman
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 244 (Revised October 1984)

Optimal Income Tax in a Monetary Economy
Preston J. Miller
Published In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (Vol. 17, No. 3, May 1993, pp. 443-465)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 239 (June 1983)

"Can the Cycle Be Reconciled With a Consistent Theory of Expectations" Or a Progress Report on Business Cycle Theory
Edward C. Prescott
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 222 (Revised June 1983)

After Penn Square: The Insurance Dilemma
Evelyn F. Carroll, Arthur J. Rolnick
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 218 (Revised February 1983)

Money, Nonconvex Preferences, and the Existence of Equilibrium: A Note
Bruce D. Smith
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 216 (September 1982)

Money as a Medium of Transaction in the Overlapping Generations Model
Bruce D. Smith
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 213 (September 1982)

A Time Series Analysis of Federal Budget Policy
Preston J. Miller
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 210 (August 1982)

A Monetarist Approach to Federal Budget Control
Preston J. Miller
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 205 (August 1982)

Human Capital Investment, and the Inefficiency of Compensation Based on Marginal Productivity: The Static Case
Bruce D. Smith
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 204 (Revised November 1985)

Limited Information, Money, and Competitive Equilibrium
Bruce D. Smith
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 170 (April 1981)

"Dollarization," Seignorage, and the Demand for Money
Thomas J. Sargent
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 165 (November 1980)

The Term Structure of Interest Rates and the Aliasing Identification Problem
Lawrence J. Christiano
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 163 (Revised November 1981)

Rational Expectations, Hyperinflation, and the Demand for Money
Lawrence J. Christiano
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 158 (Revised May 1981)

The Ends of Four Big Inflations
Thomas J. Sargent
Published In: The theory of inflation (1994, pp. 433-489)
Published In: Inflation: Causes and Effects (1982, pp. 41-97)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 152 (April 1980)

The Case for Branch Banking in Montana
Stanley L. Graham, Arthur J. Rolnick
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 151 (January 1992)

On the Existence and Uniqueness of Nonoptimal Equilibria in Dynamic Stochastic Economies
Jeremy Greenwood, Gregory W. Huffman
Published In: Journal of Economic Theory (Vol 65, Num 2, April 1995, pp. 611-623)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 135 (Revised January 1980)

Linear Rational Expectations Models for Dynamically Interrelated Variables
Lars Peter Hansen, Thomas J. Sargent
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 127 (Revised November 1979)

Formulating and Estimating Dynamic Linear Rational Expectations Models
Lars Peter Hansen, Thomas J. Sargent
Published In: The legacy of Robert Lucas, Jr. (Vol. 2, 1999, pp. 330-369)
Published In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control (Vol. 2, 1980, pp. 7-46)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 124 (Revised June 1979)

A Test of the Exogeneity of National Variables in a Regional Econometric Model
Paul A. Anderson
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 115 (Revised November 1979)

Techniques of Forecasting Using Vector Autoregressions
Robert B. Litterman
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 104 (January 1978)

Forecasting With Econometric Methods: A Comment
Preston J. Miller
Published In: Journal of Business (Vol. 51, No. 4, October 1978, pp. 579-584)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 101 (October 1977)

Is Keynesian Economics a Dead End?
Thomas J. Sargent
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 85 (March 1977)

The Influence of Regulation on Competition in the United States Banking Industry
Stanley L. Graham, Arthur J. Rolnick
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 83 (November 1975)

A Little Bit of Evidence on the Natural Rate Hypothesis From the U.S
Salih Neftci, Thomas J. Sargent
Published In: The legacy of Robert Lucas, Jr. (Vol. 2, 1999, pp. 424-428)
Published In: Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 4, No. 2, April 1978, pp. 315-319)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 79 (February 1976)

Econometric Exogeneity and Alternative Estimators of Portfolio Balance Schedules for Hyperinflations: A Note
Thomas J. Sargent
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 76 (May 1972)

The Thomson-Pierce Monthly Model: A Test for Structural Change
John H. Kareken, Arthur J. Rolnick, Neil Wallace
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 75 (August 1971)

Interest Rates and Prices in the Long Run: A Study of the Gibson Paradox
Thomas J. Sargent
Published In: Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking (Vol. 5, No. 1, February 1973, pp. 385-449)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 73 (January 1970)

An Inquiry Into the Conditions Under Which a Single Endowment Trust Fund Will Provide Perpetual Funding for an Expense Stream Growing at a Compound Annual
Ron Kaatz, Preston J. Miller
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 63 (June 1976)

The Policy Procedure of the FOMC: A Critique
John H. Kareken, Preston J. Miller
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 60 (February 1976)

The Demand for Money During Hyperinflations Under Rational Expectations: II
Thomas J. Sargent
Published In: International Economic Review (Vol. 20, No. 3, October 1979, pp. 741-758)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 58 (May 1976)

Seasonality and Portfolio Balance Under Rational Expectations
Rusdu Saracoglu, Thomas J. Sargent
Published In: Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 4, No. 3, August 1978, pp. 435-458)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 57 (March 1976)

The Transactions Demand for Money in a Three-Asset Economy
Preston J. Miller
Published In: International Economic Review (Vol. 18, No. 2, June 1977, pp. 345-366)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 55 (Revised January 1977)

Business Cycle Modeling Without Pretending to Have Too Much A Priori Economic Theory
Thomas J. Sargent, Christopher A. Sims
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 54 (March 1976)

Testing for Neutrality and Rationality
Thomas J. Sargent
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 53 (May 1976)

Observations on Improper Methods of Simulating and Teaching Friedman's Time Series Consumption Model
Thomas J. Sargent
Published In: International Economic Review (Vol. 18, No. 2, June 1977, pp. 445-462)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 49 (October 1975)

Categories of Criticism of the Rational Expectations Theory
Preston J. Miller, Clarence W. Nelson, Thomas M. Supel
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 48 (September 1975)

The Observational Equivalence of Natural and Unnatural Rate Theories of Macroeconomics
Thomas J. Sargent
Published In: Recent developments in macroeconomics (Vol. 2, 1991, pp. 111-120)
Published In: Journal of Political Economy (Vol. 84, No. 3, June 1976, pp. 631-640)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 46 (August 1975)

Nonreporting of Savings Accounts in Sample Savings: Causes and Correlates
E. Scott Maynes, Arthur J. Rolnick
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 45 (Revised April 1976)

Stabilization Policy: A Framework for Analysis
Arthur J. Rolnick
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 29 (August 1974)

Rational Expectations and the Theory of Economic Policy
Thomas J. Sargent, Neil Wallace
Published In: Essential readings in economics (1995, pp. 366-382)
Published In: The new classical macroeconomics (Vol. 1, 1992, pp. 275-289)
Published In: Journal of Monetary Economics (Vol. 2, No. 2, April 1976, pp. 169-183)
Published In: The foundations of monetary economics (Vol. 3, 1999, pp. 223-237)
Published In: Economic policy (Vol. 1, 1998, pp. 301-315)
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 27 (July 1974)

Dynamic Analysis of a Keynesian Model
Thomas J. Sargent
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 26 (July 1974)

Unemployment and Stabilization Policy in a Two-Sector, Two-Country Aggregative Model
Dale W. Henderson, Thomas J. Sargent
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 23 (Revised March 1975)

Naive Business Cycle Theory
Thomas J. Sargent
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

Working Paper 0 (May 1981)

Stopping Moderate Inflations: The Methods of Poincare and Thatcher
Thomas J. Sargent
[Paper available on-line as PDF (Adobe Acrobat) file]

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