Notes

Slide Show

Outline

1	2008 Regional Economic Outlook December 18, 2007
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3	Agenda Ninth District Economy Outlook Surveys Models Sector Analysis Agriculture Manufacturing Home building
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5	Sources of Information Minneapolis Fed’s forecast models Minneapolis Fed’s surveys Other reports
6	Comparing 2007 with last year’s forecast Job growth stronger, except Minnesota Unemployment rate predictions close, except Minnesota Personal income expanded faster Home building slowed more than expected
7	Actual and Forecast Nonfarm Employment Average percent change from a year earlier -- 4th quarter
8	Actual and Forecast Unemployment Rate 4th Quarter Average
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11	Ninth District Economy: Slow Growth in 2008 Modest employment growth and little change in unemployment Wage increases moderate, some price increases Growth in Ag and manufacturing Home building slowdown continues in many areas
12	Slower employment growth is forecast Percent change from a year earlier -- 4th quarter
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14	Little change in unemployment rates is forecast 4th Quarter
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16	Productivity increased in 2007 Percent change from a year earlier
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18	Slower growth in personal income expected Percent change from a year earlier -- 4th quarter
19	Agriculture outlook bright Ag survey: high profits in 4Q USDA prices: up, up ,up Input costs concern for 2008
20	Manufacturers upbeat, but investment is flat.
21	Manufacturing firms project increased employment and sales but flat capital investment
22	Manufacturers expect continued growth
23	Housing slowdown continues 2006 and 2007 down significantly
24	Home building continues slowdown Percent change from a year earlier
25	Housing outlook poor Forecast model expects continued slow housing market Business leaders see continued drop in 2008
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27	Fed’s Model: Home building geographically mixed Percent change from a year earlier -- 4th quarter
28	Ninth District Economy: Slow Growth in 2008 Moderate employment growth and little change in unemployment Wage increases moderate, some price increases Growth in ag and manufacturing Home building slowdown continues in many areas