Regional Model Forecast
Data as of November 27, 2001
Nonfarm Employment
| Area | 1999 Actual |
2000 Actual |
Low | 2001 Forecast |
High | Low | 2002 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 2.6 |
1.5 |
-0.8 |
-0.5 |
-0.2 |
-2.4 |
-1.9 |
-1.4 |
2.6 |
| Montana | 1.6 |
2.2 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
2.5 |
2.0 |
| North Dakota | 1.4 |
0.8 |
-1.2 |
-0.8 |
-0.3 |
-1.6 |
-1.1 |
-0.6 |
1.6 |
| South Dakota | 3.0 |
0.7 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
2.8 |
| Wisconsin | 2.3 |
1.4 |
-0.1 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
-0.2 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
2.4 |
| U.P. of Michigan | 1.5 |
1.2 |
-0.9 |
0.4 |
1.6 |
-3.3 |
-1.6 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
| United States | 2.5 |
1.7 |
-0.3 |
-1.5 |
Unemployment Rate
| Area | 1999 Actual |
2000 Actual |
Low | 2001 Forecast |
High | Low | 2002 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 3.0 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
4.3 |
4.6 |
4.8 |
| Montana | 5.1 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
5.4 |
6.5 |
| North Dakota | 3.3 |
2.7 |
2.3 |
2.5 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
4.4 |
| South Dakota | 2.6 |
2.3 |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
3.0 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
3.9 |
| Wisconsin | 3.2 |
3.3 |
4.6 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
6.3 |
6.5 |
6.8 |
5.5 |
| U.P. of Michigan | 6.3 |
6.3 |
6.6 |
7.4 |
8.3 |
9.4 |
10.3 |
11.1 |
10.7 |
| United States | 4.1 |
4.0 |
5.5 |
7.6 |
6.4 |
Personal Income
| Area | 1999 Actual |
2000 Actual |
Low | 2001 Forecast |
High | Low | 2002 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.9 |
7.9 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
3.3 |
-2.9 |
-1.2 |
0.4 |
7.7 |
| Montana | 2.1 |
5.9 |
3.2 |
4.4 |
5.8 |
-0.2 |
1.8 |
3.4 |
6.4 |
| North Dakota | 1.2 |
4.7 |
-1.5 |
2.8 |
7.2 |
-6.4 |
-1.2 |
4.7 |
6.6 |
| South Dakota | 5.2 |
5.4 |
-1.0 |
0.5 |
2.2 |
-4.2 |
-1.6 |
0.5 |
7.1 |
| Wisconsin | 4.1 |
5.7 |
2.5 |
3.3 |
4.0 |
-0.1 |
0.9 |
1.9 |
6.8 |
| United States | 4.8 |
7.3 |
4.0 |
1.4 |
7.5 |
Housing Unit Authorizations
| Area | 1999 Actual |
2000 Actual |
Low | 2001 Forecast |
High | Low | 2002 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 2.2 |
-1.1 |
-10.2 |
-5.0 |
1.2 |
-4.4 |
4.3 |
13.0 |
3.0 |
| Montana | -25.3 |
9.2 |
12.3 |
26.3 |
38.3 |
5.6 |
18.8 |
17.0 |
3.7 |
| North Dakota | -39.5 |
-41.6 |
33.0 |
77.0 |
123.0 |
10.7 |
44.3 |
92.3 |
0.1 |
| South Dakota | 9.4 |
6.9 |
-8.9 |
0.8 |
9.9 |
-20.7 |
-9.2 |
3.1 |
3.7 |
| Wisconsin | -0.2 |
-3.5 |
-3.1 |
3.3 |
9.4 |
-1.1 |
6.4 |
15.7 |
1.4 |
| United States | -2.5 |
-5.5 |
-4.6 |
13.7 |
2.5 |
Notes to Table
The baseline forecasts for 2001 and 2002 are surrounded by the range over which there is a 70% estimated chance they will fall inside.
The unemployment rate is expressed in percent, and its historical average is computed over the period 1977 - 2000. All other series are expressed in percent change of fourth quarter over previous fourth quarter, and their historical averages are computed over the fourth quarters of 1977 - 2000.
Personal income is in current dollars.
All series are seasonally adjusted.
The forecasts are made by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis through a statistical procedure called the Bayesian vector autoregression. Further details are available on request.
Sources of date are DRI and the Michigan Employment Security Agency.
Related Links
External Links
