Regional Model Forecast

Data as of November 27, 2001

Nonfarm Employment

Area 1999
Actual
2000
Actual
Low 2001
Forecast
High Low 2002
Forecast
High Historical
Mean
Minnesota
2.6
1.5
-0.8
-0.5
-0.2
-2.4
-1.9
-1.4
2.6
Montana
1.6
2.2
1.4
2.0
2.5
1.0
1.7
2.5
2.0
North Dakota
1.4
0.8
-1.2
-0.8
-0.3
-1.6
-1.1
-0.6
1.6
South Dakota
3.0
0.7
0.1
0.6
1.1
0.3
1.1
1.8
2.8
Wisconsin
2.3
1.4
-0.1
0.2
0.4
-0.2
0.3
0.6
2.4
U.P. of Michigan
1.5
1.2
-0.9
0.4
1.6
-3.3
-1.6
0.1
1.4
United States
2.5
1.7
 
-0.3
 
 
-1.5
 
 

 

Unemployment Rate

Area 1999
Actual
2000
Actual
Low 2001
Forecast
High Low 2002
Forecast
High Historical
Mean
Minnesota
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4.1
4.3
4.6
4.8
Montana
5.1
4.6
4.4
4.6
4.7
5.0
5.3
5.4
6.5
North Dakota
3.3
2.7
2.3
2.5
2.8
3.0
3.2
3.4
4.4
South Dakota
2.6
2.3
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.0
3.2
3.4
3.9
Wisconsin
3.2
3.3
4.6
4.8
5.1
6.3
6.5
6.8
5.5
U.P. of Michigan
6.3
6.3
6.6
7.4
8.3
9.4
10.3
11.1
10.7
United States
4.1
4.0
 
5.5
 
 
7.6
 
6.4

 

Personal Income

Area 1999
Actual
2000
Actual
Low 2001
Forecast
High Low 2002
Forecast
High Historical
Mean
Minnesota
4.9
7.9
1.0
2.1
3.3
-2.9
-1.2
0.4
7.7
Montana
2.1
5.9
3.2
4.4
5.8
-0.2
1.8
3.4
6.4
North Dakota
1.2
4.7
-1.5
2.8
7.2
-6.4
-1.2
4.7
6.6
South Dakota
5.2
5.4
-1.0
0.5
2.2
-4.2
-1.6
0.5
7.1
Wisconsin
4.1
5.7
2.5
3.3
4.0
-0.1
0.9
1.9
6.8
United States
4.8
7.3
 
4.0
 
 
1.4
 
7.5

 

Housing Unit Authorizations

Area 1999
Actual
2000
Actual
Low 2001
Forecast
High Low 2002
Forecast
High Historical
Mean
Minnesota
2.2
-1.1
-10.2
-5.0
1.2
-4.4
4.3
13.0
3.0
Montana
-25.3
9.2
12.3
26.3
38.3
5.6
18.8
17.0
3.7
North Dakota
-39.5
-41.6
33.0
77.0
123.0
10.7
44.3
92.3
0.1
South Dakota
9.4
6.9
-8.9
0.8
9.9
-20.7
-9.2
3.1
3.7
Wisconsin
-0.2
-3.5
-3.1
3.3
9.4
-1.1
6.4
15.7
1.4
United States
-2.5
-5.5
 
-4.6
 
 
13.7
 
2.5

 

Notes to Table

The baseline forecasts for 2001 and 2002 are surrounded by the range over which there is a 70% estimated chance they will fall inside.

The unemployment rate is expressed in percent, and its historical average is computed over the period 1977 - 2000. All other series are expressed in percent change of fourth quarter over previous fourth quarter, and their historical averages are computed over the fourth quarters of 1977 - 2000.

Personal income is in current dollars.

All series are seasonally adjusted.

The forecasts are made by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis through a statistical procedure called the Bayesian vector autoregression. Further details are available on request.

Sources of date are DRI and the Michigan Employment Security Agency.

 
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