Ninth District Forecast
Data as of December 5, 2003
Nonfarm Employment (Percent Change)
| Area | 2001 Actual |
2002 Actual |
Low | 2003 Forecast |
High | Low | 2004 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | -1.0 |
-0.5 |
-0.5 |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
0.4 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
| Montana | 1.1 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2.6 |
2.4 |
| North Dakota | 0.6 |
0.3 |
-0.5 |
-0.1 |
0.3 |
-0.2 |
0.3 |
0.8 |
1.8 |
| South Dakota | 0.0 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
1.5 |
-0.8 |
0.1 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
| Wisconsin | -1.8 |
-0.5 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
| U.P. of Michigan | -1.3 |
-0.5 |
-3.0 |
0.6 |
4.2 |
-4.8 |
0.3 |
5.4 |
1.2 |
| United States | -1.1 |
-0.4 |
|
-0.3 |
|
|
0.3 |
1.9 |
Unemployment Rate (Percent)
| Area | 2001 Actual |
2002 Actual |
Low | 2003 Forecast |
High | Low | 2004 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.1 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
| Montana | 4.7 |
4.7 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
6.3 |
| North Dakota | 3.3 |
4.2 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
4.1 |
3.4 |
3.8 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
| South Dakota | 3.6 |
2.8 |
3.2 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
| Wisconsin | 5.0 |
5.6 |
5.5 |
5.7 |
6.1 |
5.6 |
5.8 |
6.2 |
5.5 |
| U.P. of Michigan | 7.4 |
6.5 |
6.8 |
8.0 |
9.4 |
6.6 |
7.8 |
9.1 |
10.4 |
| United States | 5.6 |
5.9 |
5.9 |
|
|
5.7 |
|
6.3 |
Personal Income (Percent Change)
| Area | 2001 Actual |
2002 Actual |
Low | 2003 Forecast |
High | Low | 2004 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 1.4 |
4.0 |
3.1 |
4.0 |
5.0 |
3.3 |
4.7 |
6.0 |
7.3 |
| Montana | 3.0 |
5.4 |
4.0 |
5.2 |
6.6 |
3.1 |
5.0 |
6.6 |
6.3 |
| North Dakota | 2.1 |
3.7 |
2.2 |
6.5 |
10.8 |
-4.0 |
1.3 |
7.1 |
6.3 |
| South Dakota | 3.2 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
9.2 |
11.0 |
2.0 |
4.7 |
7.1 |
6.7 |
| Wisconsin | 2.1 |
4.1 |
3.7 |
4.3 |
5.0 |
4.2 |
5.0 |
5.9 |
6.6 |
| United States | 1.5 |
3.6 |
|
4.1 |
|
|
5.2 |
|
7.1 |
Housing Unit Authorizations (Percent Change)
| Area | 2001 Actual |
2002 Actual |
Low | 2003 Forecast |
High | Low | 2004 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 8.6 |
9.7 |
2.5 |
7.0 |
11.7 |
-3.2 |
3.4 |
9.9 |
3.4 |
| Montana | 9.1 |
74.0 |
-20.4 |
-8.8 |
2.0 |
-10.3 |
4.1 |
21.6 |
5.8 |
| North Dakota | 24.3 |
24.7 |
13.7 |
28.6 |
43.0 |
-9.2 |
5.9 |
23.3 |
1.0 |
| South Dakota | 3.9 |
-1.7 |
4.4 |
13.0 |
21.2 |
-8.4 |
1.3 |
11.7 |
1.9 |
| Wisconsin | 6.3 |
10.9 |
-1.3 |
4.6 |
10.0 |
-2.8 |
4.0 |
12.2 |
1.7 |
| United States | 3.4 |
12.0 |
|
1.3 |
|
|
1.6 |
|
2.9 |
Notes to Table
The baseline forecasts for 2002 and 2003 are surrounded by the range over which there is a 70% estimated chance they will fall inside.
The unemployment rate is expressed in percent, and its historical average is computed over the 4th quarters of 1977 - 2001. All other series are expressed in percent change of 4th quarter over previous 4th quarter, and their historical averages are computed over the 4th quarters of 1977 - 2001.
Personal income is in current dollars.
All series are seasonally adjusted.
The forecasts are made by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis through a statistical procedure called Bayesian vector autoregression. Further details are available on request.
Sources of data are DRI and the Michigan Employment Security Agency.
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