Ninth District Forecast

Data as of December 5, 2004

Nonfarm Employment (Percent Change)

Area 2002
Actual
2003
Actual
Low 2004
Forecast
High Low 2005
Forecast
High Historical
Mean
Minnesota
-0.4
0.1
0.7
0.9
1.1
0.5
0.8
1.1
1.7
Montana
1.9
0.3
1.5
2.3
3.2
0.7
1.7
2.8
2.3
North Dakota
0.4
1.0
-0.2
0.2
0.6
-0.4
0.0
0.5
1.7
South Dakota
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.9
1.5
0.0
0.8
1.6
2.0
Wisconsin
0.0
-0.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
1.4
1.7
2.0
1.5
U.P. of Michigan
-0.5
-0.3
-2.3
1.1
4.4
-4.2
0.5
5.3
1.2
United States
-0.5
-0.2
 
1.4
 
 
1.1
 
1.8

 

Unemployment Rate (Percent)

Area 2002
Actual
2003
Actual
Low 2004
Forecast
High Low 2005
Forecast
High Historical
Mean
Minnesota
4.5
5.1
4.4
4.7
4.9
4.6
4.9
5.2
4.7
Montana
4.6
4.8
4.3
4.7
5.1
4.2
4.6
4.9
6.2
North Dakota
4.2
3.8
2.9
3.3
3.7
2.9
3.3
3.7
4.3
South Dakota
3.1
3.8
3.1
3.4
3.6
3.2
3.4
3.7
3.8
Wisconsin
5.6
5.4
4.5
4.8
5.2
4.7
5.0
5.4
5.5
U.P. of Michigan
6.4
7.8
5.8
7.0
8.3
5.7
6.9
8.1
10.3
United States
5.9
5.9
 
5.4
 
 
5.4
 
6.3

 

Personal Income (Percent Change)

Area 2002
Actual
2003
Actual
Low 2004
Forecast
High Low 2005
Forecast
High Historical
Mean
Minnesota
2.4
3.8
6.2
7.1
8.3
4.1
5.7
7.1
7.1
Montana
-1.1
7.5
4.3
5.8
7.6
2.8
5.3
7.4
6.2
North Dakota
0.7
9.6
0.3
4.3
8.2
0.4
5.6
11.4
6.4
South Dakota
-0.3
8.6
3.4
4.9
6.5
2.5
5.0
7.2
6.7
Wisconsin
3.0
4.2
3.0
3.8
4.6
3.3
4.3
5.4
6.5
United States
1.9
4.6
 
4.9
 
 
5.0
 
7.0

 

Housing Unit Authorizations (Percent Change)

Area 2002
Actual
2003
Actual
Low 2004
Forecast
High Low 2005
Forecast
High Historical
Mean
Minnesota
9.7
14.0
-8.5
-4.2
0.3
-2.2
4.4
11.1
3.8
Montana
73.9
-11.3
7.9
18.3
28.5
-9.4
2.1
15.2
4.9
North Dakota
24.8
13.3
0.6
13.7
26.3
-11.8
3.4
20.5
1.6
South Dakota
-1.8
3.3
14.1
23.6
33.1
-3.2
6.9
18.4
2.0
Wisconsin
10.9
2.8
-8.4
-2.0
4.0
-5.3
2.5
11.9
1.8
United States
11.6
8.2
 
2.4
 
 
3.5
 
3.1

 

Notes to Table

The baseline forecasts for 2003 and 2004 are surrounded by the range over which there is a 70% estimated chance they will fall inside.

The unemployment rate is expressed in percent, and its historical average is computed over the 4th quarters of 1977-2002. All other series are expressed in percent change of 4th quarter over previous 4th quarter, and their historical averages are computed over the 4th quarters of 1977-2002.

Personal income is in current dollars.

All series are seasonally adjusted.

The forecasts are made by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis through a statistical procedure called Bayesian vector autoregression. Further details are available on request.

Sources of data are Global Insight Inc. and the Michigan Employment Security Agency.

 
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