Ninth District Forecast
Data as of November 16, 2005
Nonfarm Employment (Percent Change)
| Area | 2003 Actual |
2004 Actual | Low | 2005 Forecast |
High | Low | 2006 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | -0.3 |
1.4 |
1.3 |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
| Montana | 1.2 |
3.3 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
2.5 |
0.7 |
1.7 |
2.7 |
2.4 |
| North Dakota | 1.0 |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
| South Dakota | 0.2 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
2.6 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
2.0 |
| Wisconsin | -0.2 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
0.7 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
| U.P. of Michigan | -0.8 |
0.9 |
-2.5 |
0.7 |
3.9 |
-4.0 |
0.4 |
5.0 |
1.2 |
| United States | -0.1 |
1.6 |
1.6 |
1.1 |
1.8 |
Unemployment Rate (Percent)
| Area | 2003 Actual |
2004 Actual |
Low | 2005 Forecast |
High | Low | 2006 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.9 |
4.5 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.7 |
| Montana | 4.4 |
4.4 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
6.0 |
| North Dakota | 3.5 |
3.5 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
| South Dakota | 3.5 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
3.7 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
3.8 |
| Wisconsin | 5.4 |
4.7 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
5.3 |
5.3 |
| U.P. of Michigan | 7.5 |
7.6 |
6.3 |
7.3 |
8.5 |
6.6 |
7.6 |
8.7 |
10.1 |
| United States | 5.9 |
5.4 |
5.0 |
5.1 |
6.2 |
Personal Income (Percent Change)
| Area | 2003 Actual |
2004 Actual |
Low | 2005 Forecast |
High | Low | 2006 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.0 |
8.7 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
3.9 |
5.4 |
6.8 |
7.2 |
| Montana | 5.7 |
8.0 |
4.3 |
5.9 |
7.8 |
3.2 |
5.9 |
8.2 |
6.4 |
| North Dakota | 9.8 |
2.4 |
0.7 |
4.4 |
8.2 |
-1.3 |
3.4 |
8.6 |
6.3 |
| South Dakota | 9.6 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
6.3 |
8.1 |
2.7 |
5.3 |
7.7 |
6.8 |
| Wisconsin | 3.6 |
6.7 |
3.5 |
4.3 |
5.0 |
3.7 |
4.6 |
5.7 |
6.5 |
| United States | 4.6 |
7.5 |
4.3 |
5.5 |
7.0 |
Housing Unit Authorizations (Percent Change)
| Area | 2003 Actual |
2004 Actual |
Low | 2005 Forecast |
High | Low | 2006 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 14.0 |
-1.5 |
-19.9 |
-12.9 |
-5.2 |
-7.1 |
4.3 |
16.1 |
3.6 |
| Montana | -10.3 |
23.8 |
1.3 |
11.3 |
21.0 |
-12.0 |
-0.7 |
13.1 |
5.4 |
| North Dakota | 12.4 |
-2.1 |
8.6 |
23.9 |
39.8 |
-14.0 |
2.0 |
21.5 |
1.1 |
| South Dakota | 3.8 |
18.0 |
-5.3 |
2.1 |
9.1 |
-5.3 |
3.7 |
14.4 |
2.6 |
| Wisconsin | 1.7 |
-5.2 |
-7.4 |
0.7 |
8.1 |
-7.3 |
1.4 |
11.7 |
1.4 |
| United States | 8.3 |
5.9 |
4.3 |
1.0 |
3.2 |
Notes to Table
The baseline forecasts for 2005 and 2006 are surrounded by the range over which there is a 70% estimated chance they will fall inside.
The unemployment rate is expressed in percent, and its historical average is computed over the 4th quarters of 1977 - 2004. All other series are expressed in percent change of 4th quarter over previous 4th quarter, and their historical averages are computed over the 4th quarters of 1977 - 2004.
Personal income is in current dollars.
All series are seasonally adjusted.
The forecasts are made by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis through a statistical procedure called Bayesian vector autoregression.Further details are available on request.
Sources of data are DRI and the Michigan Employment Security Agency.
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