Ninth District Forecast
Data as of May 8, 2007
Nonfarm Employment (Percent Change)
| Area | 2005 Actual |
2006 Actual |
Low | 2007 Forecast |
High | Low | 2008 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 1.7 |
0.8 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
1.1 |
-0.1 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
1.6 |
| Montana | 2.6 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
2.3 |
3.0 |
0.3 |
1.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
| North Dakota | 1.7 |
2.8 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
1.9 |
0.9 |
1.4 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
| South Dakota | 1.7 |
2.7 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
1.6 |
0.1 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
2.1 |
| Wisconsin | 1.1 |
0.5 |
-0.8 |
-0.4 |
-0.1 |
-0.7 |
-0.3 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
| U.P. of Michigan | -0.2 |
0.9 |
-6.4 |
-1.0 |
4.1 |
-6.8 |
-0.1 |
7.7 |
1.1 |
| United States | 1.8 |
1.7 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
1.8 |
Unemployment Rate (Percent)
| Area | 2005 Actual |
2006 Actual |
Low | 2007 Forecast |
High | Low | 2008 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.0 |
4.1 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
4.9 |
5.1 |
5.3 |
4.7 |
| Montana | 3.6 |
2.9 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.7 |
0.9 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
5.9 |
| North Dakota | 3.3 |
3.3 |
2.9 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
4.2 |
| South Dakota | 3.5 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.3 |
3.5 |
3.3 |
3.4 |
3.6 |
3.8 |
| Wisconsin | 4.8 |
4.8 |
5.0 |
5.3 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.6 |
5.9 |
5.3 |
| U.P. of Michigan | 6.9 |
7.3 |
5.7 |
7.1 |
8.6 |
6.1 |
7.6 |
9.0 |
9.9 |
| United States | 5.0 |
4.5 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
6.1 |
Personal Income (Percent Change)
| Area | 2005 Actual |
2006 Actual |
Low | 2007 Forecast |
High | Low | 2008 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 2.1 |
5.0 |
2.2 |
3.3 |
4.4 |
1.9 |
3.6 |
5.2 |
6.9 |
| Montana | 4.3 |
7.3 |
5.2 |
6.6 |
8.1 |
4.1 |
6.2 |
8.2 |
6.3 |
| North Dakota | 7.1 |
3.6 |
-19.1 |
-7.9 |
5.8 |
-18.0 |
-1.6 |
17.8 |
6.2 |
| South Dakota | 3.6 |
6.2 |
2.7 |
4.5 |
6.4 |
2.6 |
5.0 |
7.6 |
6.8 |
| Wisconsin | 3.0 |
5.1 |
2.6 |
3.4 |
4.3 |
2.3 |
3.5 |
4.5 |
6.3 |
| United States | 4.6 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
4.3 |
6.9 |
Housing Unit Authorizations (Percent Change)
| Area | 2005 Actual |
2006 Actual |
Low | 2007 Forecast |
High | Low | 2008 Forecast |
High | Historical Mean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | -12.0 |
-37.9 |
-14.1 |
-3.5 |
6.9 |
-13.9 |
-1.4 |
13.4 |
1.7 |
| Montana | 9.7 |
-18.9 |
0.8 |
13.5 |
26.0 |
-5.0 |
9.1 |
25.3 |
5.0 |
| North Dakota | 22.1 |
-20.2 |
-10.1 |
29.9 |
68.9 |
-37.9 |
-3.0 |
45.8 |
1.1 |
| South Dakota | 5.6 |
-14.7 |
-17.1 |
-6.4 |
3.4 |
-14.7 |
-0.5 |
16.1 |
2.9 |
| Wisconsin | -3.8 |
-25.6 |
-13.5 |
-5.3 |
2.7 |
-14.1 |
-2.8 |
10.2 |
0.2 |
| United States | 2.7 |
-27.2 |
-2.0 |
-0.3 |
2.1 |
Notes to Table
The baseline forecasts for 2007 and 2008 are surrounded by the range over which there is a 70% estimated chance they will fall inside.
The unemployment rate is expressed in percent, and its historical average is computed over the 4th quarters of 1977-2006. All other series are expressed in percent change of 4th quarter over previous 4th quarter, and their historical averages are computed over the 4th quarters of 1977-2006.
Personal income is in current dollars.
All series are seasonally adjusted.
The forecasts are made by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis through a statistical procedure called Bayesian vector autoregression.
Further details are available on request.
ources of data are DRI and the Michigan Employment Security Agency.
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