Ninth District Forecast

Data as of November 30, 2011  [PDF]

Nonfarm Employment (Percent Change)

Area

2009
Actual

2010
Actual

Low

2011
Forecast

High

Low

2012
Forecast

High

Historical
Mean

Minnesota

-4.0
0.7
1.4
1.7
2.0
2.3
2.8
3.3
1.1

Montana

-3.2
0.1
1.9
2.7
3.6
1.8
2.9
4.1
1.8

North Dakota

-0.2
3.7
4.2
4.7
5.2
4.2
4.8
5.4
1.8

South Dakota

-2.4
0.8
-0.2
0.6
1.4
1.0
2.1
3.2
1.7

Wisconsin

-4.7
0.5
1.1
1.4
1.7
1.5
1.9
2.4
0.9

U.P. of Michigan

-4.2
0.2
-2.1
2.0
6.3
-2.8
3.0
9.1
0.7

United States

-4.2
0.5
 
1.3
   
2.1
 
1.5

Unemployment Rate (Percent)

Area

2009
Actual

2010
Actual

Low

2011
Forecast

High

Low

2012
Forecast

High

Historical
Mean

Minnesota
7.9
7.0
6.9
7.1
7.2
6.2
6.5
6.7
4.9

Montana

6.9
7.4
7.4
7.7
7.9
7.1
7.4
7.6
5.8

North Dakota

4.2
3.9
3.1
3.5
3.9
3.0
3.4
3.9
4.1

South Dakota

5.1
4.7
4.4
4.5
4.7
4.1
4.3
4.4
3.8

Wisconsin

9.1
7.6
7.6
7.8
8.1
7.0
7.3
7.5
5.5

U.P. of Michigan

12.6
11.2
9.5
10.6
11.9
8.2
9.4
10.6
9.9

United States

10.0
9.6
 
8.8
   
8.0
 
6.3

Personal Income (Percent Change)

Area

2009
Actual

2010
Actual

Low

2011
Forecast

High

Low

2012
Forecast

High

Historical
Mean

Minnesota

-3.2
6.8
5.9
6.2
7.7
4.3
6.3
8.2
6.5

Montana

-3.2
6.6
4.7
5.4
7.0
2.9
5.1
7.0
6.1

North Dakota

-0.8
13.0
-14.9
0.0
25.7
-32.6
-7.3
33.6
6.5

South Dakota

-2.3
7.8
5.6
4.4
6.5
1.7
5.0
7.9
6.6

Wisconsin

-2.2
4.2
5.4
7.1
8.4
4.1
5.8
7.7
5.9

United States

-3.3
4.0
 
4.9
   
5.6
 
6.4

Housing Unit Authorizations (Percent Change)

Area

2009
Actual

2010
Actual

Low

2011
Forecast

High

Low

2012
Forecast

High

Historical
Mean

Minnesota

4.6
-4.0
37.5
67.3
101.9
-35.3
-12.1
13.0
-0.9

Montana

-15.2
16.7
-7.8
24.9
57.0
-22.9
6.1
48.3
2.8

North Dakota

11.5
17.5
0.2
23.6
47.6
-23.4
-0.6
28.0
1.4

South Dakota

-11.9
-19.9
13.3
29.0
44.6
-10.6
4.5
23.9
1.0

Wisconsin

-11.3
-8.4
12.0
35.3
57.3
-20.5
-3.2
20.6
-1.9
United States
-2.4
-6.5
 
36.5
   
12.1
 
-0.4

Notes to Table

The baseline forecasts for 2011 and 2012 are surrounded by the range over which there is a 70% estimated chance they will fall inside.

The unemployment rate is expressed in percent, and its historical average is computed over the 4th quarters of 1977-2010. All other series are expressed in percent change of 4th quarter over previous 4th quarter. Historical averages are computed over the 4th quarters of 1977-2010 for personal income and housing units authorized and 1991-2010 for nonfarm employment.

Personal income is in current dollars.

All series are seasonally adjusted.

The forecasts are made by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis through a statistical procedure called Bayesian vector autoregression. Further details are available on request.

Sources of data are DRI and the Michigan Employment Security Agency.

 
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Narayana Kocherlakota

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