Ninth District Forecast

Data as of June 28, 2013 [PDF]

Nonfarm Employment (Percent Change)

Area

2011
Actual

2012
Actual

Low

2013
Forecast

High

Low

2014
Forecast

High

Historical
Mean

Minnesota

1.9
1.5
0.7
1.4
2.2
-1.2
0.6
2.5
1.4

Montana

1.6
2.4
-0.3
0.7
1.7
-1.6
0.5
2.6
1.5

North Dakota

6.8
7.0
1.8
2.7
3.6
1.9
3.5
5.1
1.8

South Dakota

1.2
1.4
0.5
1.4
2.3
-1.5
0.3
2.1
1.8

Wisconsin

0.9
0.9
-0.6
0.1
0.8
-1.9
-0.1
1.7
1.2

U.P. of Michigan

-0.3
0.3
-1.7
-0.1
1.4
-2.5
0.3
3.0
0.7

United States

1.5
1.6
 
1.9
   
1.9
 
1.3

Unemployment Rate (Percent)

Area

2011
Actual

2012
Actual

Low

2013
Forecast

High

Low

2014
Forecast

High

Historical
Mean

Minnesota

6.0
5.5
4.8
5.2
5.6
4.0
5.2
6.3
5.0

Montana

6.4
5.8
5.0
5.2
5.5
4.4
5.1
5.7
5.8

North Dakota

3.4
3.2
2.9
3.2
3.5
2.5
3.2
3.8
4.0

South Dakota

4.5
4.3
3.6
3.9
4.2
3.2
3.9
4.6
3.9

Wisconsin

7.3
6.7
6.5
7.0
7.5
5.5
7.0
8.5
5.6

U.P. of Michigan

9.6
8.7
8.0
9.3
10.6
6.6
8.9
11.1
9.7

United States

8.7
7.8
 
7.1
   
6.5
 
6.4

Personal Income (Percent Change)

Area

2011
Actual

2012
Actual

Low

2013
Forecast

High

Low

2014
Forecast

High

Historical
Mean

Minnesota

3.7
6.7
-1.2
1.4
4.0
-0.4
3.4
7.3
5.7

Montana

5.3
6.5
-2.5
1.6
5.8
-2.0
3.2
8.7
5.2

North Dakota

12.6
13.8
-6.7
0.2
7.5
-4.0
4.8
14.6
6.6

South Dakota

11.7
2.3
1.2
5.3
9.5
-0.8
4.7
10.5
6.1

Wisconsin

3.1
5.9
-1.2
0.9
3.1
-0.4
2.6
5.8
5.1

United States

4.1
5.7
 
2.5
   
5.0
 
5.6

Housing Unit Authorizations (Percent Change)

Area

2011
Actual

2012
Actual

Low

2013
Forecast

High

Low

2014
Forecast

High

Historical
Mean

Minnesota

-2.2
109.8
-25.7
-5.2
20.7
-24.2
6.5
50.2
2.4

Montana

26.4
11.3
-13.4
26.1
83.3
-40.5
-2.8
58.5
10.4

North Dakota

9.4
96.0
-60.7
-34.4
9.5
-57.8
-16.7
67.2
14.3

South Dakota

-16.6
144.1
-30.8
2.7
52.4
-40.4
-0.4
66.7
11.9

Wisconsin

-5.8
30.2
-34.9
-18.6
1.4
-32.2
-6.6
27.6
0.8

United States

18.5
34.2
 
11.0
   
0.1
 
1.4

Notes to Table

The baseline forecasts for 2013 and 2014 are surrounded by the range over which there is a 70% estimated chance they will fall inside.

The unemployment rate is expressed in percent over the 4th quarter, and its historical average is computed over the 4th quarters of 1980 - 2012. All other series are expressed in percent change of 4th quarter over previous 4th quarter and historical averages are computed over the 4th quarters of 1980-2012.

Personal income is in current dollars.

All series are seasonally adjusted.

The forecasts are made by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis through a statistical procedure called Bayesian vector autoregression. Further details are available on request.

Sources of data are DRI and the Michigan Employment Security Agency.

 
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