Ninth District Forecast

Data as of June 25, 2014 [PDF]

Nonfarm Employment (Percent Change)

Area

2012
Actual

2013
Actual

Low

2014
Forecast

High

Low

2015
Forecast

High

Historical
Mean

Minnesota

1.6
2.0
0.3
1.1
1.9
-1.7
0.1
2.0
1.4

Montana

2.2
1.2
0.7
1.8
2.8
-1.1
1.0
3.1
1.4

North Dakota

6.4
3.6
3.7
4.6
5.5
2.3
3.9
5.5
1.8

South Dakota

1.3
0.5
-0.1
0.8
1.7
-1.7
0.1
1.9
1.6

Wisconsin

1.3
1.5
0.5
1.2
2.0
-1.8
0.0
1.9
1.1

U.P. of Michigan

0.5
0.5
-2.5
-0.9
0.7
-2.5
0.2
2.9
0.7

United States

1.7
1.8
 
1.9
   
1.3
 
1.2

Unemployment Rate (Percent)

Area

2012
Actual

2013
Actual

Low

2014
Forecast

High

Low

2015
Forecast

High

Historical
Mean

Minnesota

5.4
4.8
3.9
4.4
4.9
3.5
4.7
5.8
5.0

Montana

5.9
5.4
4.0
4.3
4.5
3.4
4.1
4.8
5.8

North Dakota

3.0
2.7
2.2
2.5
2.8
1.8
2.5
3.2
4.0

South Dakota

4.0
3.6
3.4
3.8
4.1
3.1
3.8
4.5
3.9

Wisconsin

6.9
6.4
4.9
5.5
6.0
4.2
5.8
7.3
5.7

U.P. of Michigan

8.8
9.7
7.9
9.2
10.6
6.5
8.8
11.1
9.8

United States

7.8
7.0
 
6.0
   
5.7
 
6.5

Personal Income (Percent Change)

Area

2012
Actual

2013
Actual

Low

2014
Forecast

High

Low

2015
Forecast

High

Historical
Mean

Minnesota

6.0
1.0
0.6
3.1
5.7
-1.0
2.5
6.2
5.8

Montana

6.1
1.1
-1.6
2.1
5.9
-1.1
3.7
8.5
5.3

North Dakota

19.1
3.2
-6.0
0.7
7.8
-2.5
6.0
15.6
6.1

South Dakota

2.9
-0.4
-3.4
0.5
4.6
-2.9
2.4
7.8
5.7

Wisconsin

5.1
1.6
0.3
2.3
4.4
-0.6
2.3
5.2
5.2

United States

5.8
1.6
 
4.6
   
4.4
 
5.7

Housing Unit Authorizations (Percent Change)

Area

2012
Actual

2013
Actual

Low

2014
Forecast

High

Low

2015
Forecast

High

Historical
Mean

Minnesota

112.8
-18.5
-35.9
-16.6
8.7
-36.1
-9.5
28.3
1.9

Montana

10.0
36.4
-61.9
-42.9
-15.3
-37.0
1.7
66.3
11.2

North Dakota

99.3
-13.7
-57.2
-26.2
26.4
-60.6
-20.0
59.3
13.6

South Dakota

146.7
-25.7
-13.7
30.9
98.1
-45.9
-8.8
54.0
10.9

Wisconsin

29.2
14.5
-28.1
-8.5
16.3
-35.9
-11.3
22.0
1.1

United States

33.2
13.1
 
-5.1
   
-4.5
 
1.6

Notes to Table

The baseline forecasts for 2014 and 2015 are surrounded by the range over which there is a 70% estimated chance they will fall inside.

The unemployment rate is expressed in percent over the 4th quarter, and its historical average is computed over the 4th quarters of 1981 - 2013. All other series are expressed in percent change of 4th quarter over previous 4th quarter and historical averages are computed over the 4th quarters of 1981-2013.

Personal income is in current dollars.

All series are seasonally adjusted.

The forecasts are made by the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis through a statistical procedure called Bayesian vector autoregression. Further details are available on request.

Sources of data are Haver Analytics and the Michigan Employment Security Agency.

 
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