Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2004
Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized
Nonfarm Employment
| Area | First Forecast July 2003 |
Second Forecast January 2004 |
Third Forecast July 2004 |
Estimate January 2005 |
Final July 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 1.1 |
0.7 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
1.5 |
| Montana | 1.3 |
1.5 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
2.9 |
| North Dakota | 1.0 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
1.9 |
| South Dakota | 1.2 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
0.9 |
1.7 |
| Wisconsin | 1.6 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
2.7 |
1.5 |
| Upper Peninsula of Michigan | 0.0 |
0.3 |
1.1 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
| Avg. Variance From Final | 0.7 |
1.1 |
0.8 |
1.0 |
|
| Historical Avg. Variance | 1.1 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
||
| Avg. Variance - Historical Avg. Variance | -0.4 |
0.0 |
-0.1 |
Unemployment Rate
| Area | First Forecast July 2003 |
Second Forecast January 2004 |
Third Forecast July 2004 |
Estimate January 2005 |
Final July 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 5.0 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
4.7 |
4.2 |
| Montana | 4.3 |
4.7 |
4.4 |
4.7 |
4.2 |
| North Dakota | 3.9 |
3.8 |
3.6 |
3.3 |
3.6 |
| South Dakota | 3.3 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
3.4 |
3.9 |
| Wisconsin | 6.2 |
5.8 |
5.1 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
| Upper Peninsula of Michigan | 8.3 |
7.8 |
6.9 |
7.0 |
7.6 |
| Avg. Variance From Final | 0.7 |
0.6 |
0.3 |
0.4 |
|
| Historical Avg. Variance | 0.7 |
0.6 |
0.5 |
||
| Avg. Variance - Historical Avg. Variance | 0.0 |
0.0 |
-0.2 |
Personal Income
| Area | First Forecast July 2003 |
Second Forecast January 2004 |
Third Forecast July 2004 |
Estimate January 2005 |
Final July 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 2.7 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
7.1 |
7.7 |
| Montana | 3.4 |
5.0 |
4.6 |
5.8 |
7.3 |
| North Dakota | 0.6 |
1.3 |
3.1 |
4.3 |
2.3 |
| South Dakota | 2.2 |
4.7 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
7.9 |
| Wisconsin | 2.5 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
3.8 |
5.7 |
| Avg. Variance From Final | 3.9 |
2.0 |
2.0 |
1.8 |
|
| Historical Avg. Variance | 2.7 |
2.8 |
2.5 |
||
| Avg. Variance - Historical Avg. Variance | 1.2 |
-0.8 |
-0.5 |
Housing Units Authorized
| Area | First Forecast July 2003 |
Second Forecast January 2004 |
Third Forecast July 2004 |
Estimate January 2005 |
Final July 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 0.1 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
-4.2 |
-1.5 |
| Montana | 6.8 |
4.1 |
4.7 |
18.3 |
23.5 |
| North Dakota | 4.5 |
5.9 |
7.2 |
13.7 |
-2.0 |
| South Dakota | 0.9 |
1.3 |
-1.1 |
23.6 |
16.0 |
| Wisconsin | 4.0 |
4.0 |
4.2 |
-2.0 |
-5.3 |
| Avg. Variance From Final | 10.6 |
12.0 |
12.6 |
7.7 |
|
| Historical Avg. Variance | 16.6 |
16.0 |
22.2 |
||
| Avg. Variance - Historical Avg. Variance | -6.0 |
-4.0 |
-9.6 |
