Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2006
Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized
Nonfarm Employment
| Area | First Forecast July 2005 |
Second Forecast January 2006 |
Third Forecast July 2006 |
Estimate January 2007 |
Final July 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 0.2 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 0.5 |
| Montana | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 2.6 |
| North Dakota | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| South Dakota | 1.2 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Wisconsin | 0.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.7 |
| Upper Peninsula of Michigan | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -1.0 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 0.9 | 0.8 | <0.5 | 0.8 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 |
Unemployment Rate
| Area | First Forecast July 2005 |
Second Forecast January 2006 |
Third Forecast July 2006 |
Estimate January 2007 |
Final July 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| Montana | 4.3 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 3.1 |
| North Dakota | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 |
| South Dakota | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| Wisconsin | 5.3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Upper Peninsula of Michigan | 7.4 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 7.3 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.3 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.3 |
Personal Income
| Area | First Forecast July 2005 |
Second Forecast January 2006 |
Third Forecast July 2006 |
Estimate January 2007 |
Final July 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.6 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 5.3 |
| Montana | 5.0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 7.4 | 6.7 |
| North Dakota | 6.4 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 |
| South Dakota | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 7.4 | 2.6 |
| Wisconsin | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 6.5 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 2.0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | -0.7 | -1.7 | -1.3 |
Housing Units Authorized
| Area | First Forecast July 2005 |
Second Forecast January 2006 |
Third Forecast July 2006 |
Estimate January 2007 |
Final July 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 2.9 | 4.3 | -6.2 | -16.8 | -38.3 |
| Montana | 3.7 | -0.7 | 28.2 | -6.5 | -19.5 |
| North Dakota | 11.6 | 2.0 | -7.8 | -15.6 | -20.2 |
| South Dakota | 5.1 | 3.7 | 64.5 | 7.2 | -13.4 |
| Wisconsin | 2.4 | 1.4 | 3.0 | -16.5 | -27.6 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 28.9 | 25.9 | 40.1 | 14.2 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 16.6 | 16.0 | 22.2 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | 12.3 | 9.9 | 17.9 |
