Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2007
Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized
Nonfarm Employment
| Area | First Forecast July 2006 |
Second Forecast January 2007 |
Third Forecast July 2007 |
Estimate January 2008 |
Final July 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Montana | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| North Dakota | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| South Dakota | 1.6 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Wisconsin | 1.1 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Upper Peninsula of Michigan | 0.8 | -0.7 | -1.0 | 0.1 | -0.6 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | -0.6 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
Unemployment Rate
| Area | First Forecast July 2006 |
Second Forecast January 2007 |
Third Forecast July 2007 |
Estimate January 2008 |
Final July 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 4.7 |
| Montana | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 3.7 |
| North Dakota | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| South Dakota | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
| Wisconsin | 4.8 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.5 |
| Upper Peninsula of Michigan | 5.8 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 8.3 | 7.6 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | -0.3 | -0.1 | 0.3 |
Personal Income
| Area | First Forecast July 2006 |
Second Forecast January 2007 |
Third Forecast July 2007 |
Estimate January 2008 |
Final July 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 5.1 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 7.8 | 5.2 |
| Montana | 5.6 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 6.4 |
| North Dakota | 4.5 | -2.1 | -7.9 | 3.6 | 12.0 |
| South Dakota | 5.3 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 7.7 | 10.7 |
| Wisconsin | 4.8 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 3.9 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 2.9 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.4 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.5 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | 0.3 | 1.4 | 3.2 |
Housing Units Authorized
| Area | First Forecast July 2006 |
Second Forecast January 2007 |
Third Forecast July 2007 |
Estimate January 2008 |
Final July 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 1.1 | 2.4 | -3.5 | -17.3 | -37.6 |
| Montana | 5.5 | 8.4 | 13.5 | -0.4 | -12.6 |
| North Dakota | 2.7 | 2.1 | 29.9 | 4.9 | -5.7 |
| South Dakota | 6.8 | 4.8 | -6.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 |
| Wisconsin | 1.4 | 3.1 | -5.3 | -13.9 | -25.2 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 20.2 | 20.9 | 23.9 | 12.5 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 16.6 | 16.0 | 22.2 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | 3.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 |
