Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2008
Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized
Nonfarm Employment
| Area | First Forecast July 2007 |
Second Forecast January 2008 |
Third Forecast July 2008 |
Estimate January 2009 |
Final July 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | -0.5 | -1.1 |
| Montana | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | -1.1 |
| North Dakota | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| South Dakota | 0.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Wisconsin | -0.3 | 0.9 | -1.3 | -0.6 | -0.9 |
| U.P. of Michigan | -0.1 | 0.1 | -2.6 | -0.6 | -2.3 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Unemployment Rate
| Area | First Forecast July 2007 |
Second Forecast January 2008 |
Third Forecast July 2008 |
Estimate January 2009 |
Final July 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 5.1 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 6.3 |
| Montana | 1.1 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 5.3 |
| North Dakota | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| South Dakota | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.6 |
| Wisconsin | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 5.3 | 5.8 |
| U.P. of Michigan | 7.6 | 8.6 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 9.6 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Personal Income
| Area | First Forecast July 2007 |
Second Forecast January 2008 |
Third Forecast July 2008 |
Estimate January 2009 |
Final July 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 3.6 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 1.9 |
| Montana | 6.2 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 1.1 |
| North Dakota | -1.6 | -3.0 | -2.9 | 11.0 | 4.0 |
| South Dakota | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 2.2 |
| Wisconsin | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 3.5 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 2.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.7 |
Housing Units Authorized
| Area | First Forecast July 2007 |
Second Forecast January 2008 |
Third Forecast July 2008 |
Estimate January 2009 |
Final July 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | -1.4 | -3.3 | 25.7 | -27.0 | -37.0 |
| Montana | 9.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | -25.0 | -46.7 |
| North Dakota | -3.0 | -1.7 | 13.0 | 0.4 | -13.4 |
| South Dakota | -0.5 | 2.0 | -10.8 | 2.5 | -16.2 |
| Wisconsin | -2.8 | 0.4 | -0.4 | -13.7 | -31.5 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 29.2 | 30.3 | 35.5 | 16.4 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 16.0 | 15.9 | 23.8 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | 13.2 | 14.4 | 11.7 |
