Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2008

Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized

Nonfarm Employment

Area First Forecast
July 2007
Second Forecast
January 2008
Third Forecast
July 2008
Estimate
January 2009
Final
July 2009
Minnesota 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.5 -1.1
Montana 1.3 2.1 1.6 1.3 -1.1
North Dakota 1.4 1.9 2.3 1.3 2.1
South Dakota 0.9 1.5 0.4 1.6 0.7
Wisconsin -0.3 0.9 -1.3 -0.6 -0.9
U.P. of Michigan -0.1 0.1 -2.6 -0.6 -2.3
Avg Variance From Final 1.1 1.5 1.0 1.0  
Historical Avg Variance 1.3 1.3 0.9    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance -0.2 0.2 0.1    

 

Unemployment Rate

Area First Forecast
July 2007
Second Forecast
January 2008
Third Forecast
July 2008
Estimate
January 2009
Final
July 2009
Minnesota 5.1 4.9 5.1 6.2 6.3
Montana 1.1 2.6 3.5 4.6 5.3
North Dakota 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.6
South Dakota 3.4 3.1 2.8 3.3 3.6
Wisconsin 5.6 5.4 5.7 5.3 5.8
U.P. of Michigan 7.6 8.6 8.2 9.9 9.6
Avg Variance From Final 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.3  
Historical Avg Variance 0.8 0.7 0.6    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance 0.4 0.4 0.2    

 

Personal Income

Area First Forecast
July 2007
Second Forecast
January 2008
Third Forecast
July 2008
Estimate
January 2009
Final
July 2009
Minnesota 3.6 5.1 5.0 5.7 1.9
Montana 6.2 5.9 6.5 6.6 1.1
North Dakota -1.6 -3.0 -2.9 11.0 4.0
South Dakota 5.0 5.1 5.4 7.6 2.2
Wisconsin 3.5 5.1 3.9 3.9 1.4
Avg Variance From Final 3.5 4.3 4.2 4.8  
Historical Avg Variance 2.9 3.1 2.6    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance 0.6 1.2 1.7    

 

Housing Units Authorized

Area First Forecast
July 2007
Second Forecast
January 2008
Third Forecast
July 2008
Estimate
January 2009
Final
July 2009
Minnesota -1.4 -3.3 25.7 -27.0 -37.0
Montana 9.1 9.2 5.2 -25.0 -46.7
North Dakota -3.0 -1.7 13.0 0.4 -13.4
South Dakota -0.5 2.0 -10.8 2.5 -16.2
Wisconsin -2.8 0.4 -0.4 -13.7 -31.5
Avg Variance From Final 29.2 30.3 35.5 16.4  
Historical Avg Variance 16.0 15.9 23.8    
Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance 13.2 14.4 11.7    

 

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