Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2009
Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized
Nonfarm Employment
| Area | First Forecast July 2008 |
Second Forecast January 2009 |
Third Forecast July 2009 |
Estimate January 2010 |
Final July 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | -0.1 | -0.4 | -4.9 | -3.4 | -4.0 |
| Montana | 1.4 | 1.6 | -2.7 | -0.5 | -3.2 |
| North Dakota | 2.2 | 1.5 | -1.0 | 0.7 | -0.2 |
| South Dakota | -0.2 | 0.4 | -4.5 | -1.3 | -2.4 |
| Wisconsin | -1.3 | -0.6 | -5.8 | -3.6 | -4.7 |
| U.P. of Michigan | -2.0 | -2.4 | -5.4 | -1.7 | -4.2 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 3.6 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | 2.0 | 2.1 | 0.2 |
Unemployment Rate
| Area | First Forecast July 2008 |
Second Forecast January 2009 |
Third Forecast July 2009 |
Estimate January 2010 |
Final July 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 5.6 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| Montana | 3.1 | 4.3 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 6.9 |
| North Dakota | 3.8 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| South Dakota | 2.9 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 5.1 |
| Wisconsin | 6.1 | 5.6 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 9.1 |
| U.P. of Michigan | 9.3 | 11.4 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 12.6 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
Personal Income
| Area | First Forecast July 2008 |
Second Forecast January 2009 |
Third Forecast July 2009 |
Estimate January 2010 |
Final July 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 4.6 | 5.0 | -0.3 | -2.3 | -1.4 |
| Montana | 6.9 | 7.0 | -1.2 | -0.5 | 0.0 |
| North Dakota | -5.3 | -6.1 | -7.6 | -14.7 | 0.9 |
| South Dakota | 4.8 | 6.3 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.9 |
| Wisconsin | 3.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | -1.5 | -0.2 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 5.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 3.8 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | 2.1 | 2.8 | -0.5 |
Housing Units Authorized
| Area | First Forecast July 2008 |
Second Forecast January 2009 |
Third Forecast July 2009 |
Estimate January 2010 |
Final July 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 3.8 | -17.0 | 155.0 | -14.0 | 5.2 |
| Montana | 9.2 | 7.4 | -41.7 | -4.4 | -15.4 |
| North Dakota | -1.3 | -2.4 | -14.2 | 2.9 | 13.3 |
| South Dakota | -3.5 | -0.2 | -4.4 | -11.5 | -12.0 |
| Wisconsin | -10.7 | -10.8 | -10.5 | -32.6 | -17.0 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 11.1 | 15.7 | 43.5 | 11.3 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 18.0 | 17.3 | 22.3 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | -6.9 | -1.6 | 21.3 |
