Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2010
Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized
Nonfarm Employment
| Area | First Forecast July 2009 |
Second Forecast January 2010 |
Third Forecast July 2010 |
Estimate January 2011 |
Final July 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | -0.6 | -0.4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| Montana | 1.5 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| North Dakota | 1.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 4.1 |
| South Dakota | -2.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Wisconsin | -0.9 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| U.P. of Michigan | -2.1 | -1.0 | 2.6 | -0.9 | 0.7 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.4 |
Unemployment Rate
| Area | First Forecast July 2009 |
Second Forecast January 2010 |
Third Forecast July 2010 |
Estimate January 2011 |
Final July 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 10.8 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| Montana | 8.9 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.0 |
| North Dakota | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| South Dakota | 5.1 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 5.0 |
| Wisconsin | 8.1 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 7.9 |
| U.P. of Michigan | 13.4 | 13.2 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 11.3 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | 0.6 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
Personal Income
| Area | First Forecast July 2009 |
Second Forecast January 2010 |
Third Forecast July 2010 |
Estimate January 2011 |
Final July 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 2.5 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 6.7 |
| Montana | 2.7 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 6.5 |
| North Dakota | -28.1 | -16.9 | -19.1 | -4.5 | 12.8 |
| South Dakota | 2.4 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 7.3 |
| Wisconsin | 3.2 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 5.6 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 7.6 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.6 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | 4.3 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
Housing Units Authorized
| Area | First Forecast July 2009 |
Second Forecast January 2010 |
Third Forecast July 2010 |
Estimate January 2011 |
Final July 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 42.5 | -56.4 | -30.0 | 20.1 | -3.2 |
| Montana | 79.2 | 28.3 | 38.1 | 23.9 | 16.3 |
| North Dakota | 19.3 | -3.4 | 27.5 | 12.2 | 23.0 |
| South Dakota | 16.1 | -2.1 | -2.8 | -5.5 | -19.6 |
| Wisconsin | 44.0 | -35.0 | 1.8 | 2.8 | -7.9 |
| Avg Variance From Final | 39.7 | 26.5 | 17.0 | 12.9 | |
| Historical Avg Variance | 18.0 | 17.3 | 22.3 | ||
| Avg Variance - Historical Avg Variance | 21.8 | 9.2 | -5.3 |
