Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2011

Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized

Nonfarm Employment

Area First Forecast
July 2010
Second Forecast
January 2011
Third Forecast
July 2011
Estimate
January 2012
Final
July 2012
Minnesota 1.4 1.9 0.5 1.7 1.9
Montana 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.7 1.6
North Dakota 1.0 2.0 4.5 4.7 6.8
South Dakota 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.6 1.2
Wisconsin 0.7 1.1 1.6 1.4 0.9
U.P. of Michigan 1.6 1.9 2.6 2.0 -0.3
Average Variance from Final 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.9  
Historical Average Variance 1.3 1.3 0.9    
Avg Var - Historical Avg Var 0.1 -0.2 0.2    

 

Unemployment Rate

Area First Forecast
July 2010
Second Forecast
January 2011
Third Forecast
July 2011
Estimate
January 2012
Final
July 2012
Minnesota 6.9 6.9 6.6 7.1 6.0
Montana 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.7 6.4
North Dakota 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4
South Dakota 4.4 4.3 4.7 4.5 4.5
Wisconsin 8.5 7.6 7.6 7.8 7.3
U.P. of Michigan 10.8 12.2 9.4 10.6 9.6
Average Variance from Final 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6  
Historical Average Variance 0.9 0.7 0.5    
Avg Var - Historical Avg Var -0.1 -0.1 0.0    

 

Personal Income

Area First Forecast
July 2010
Second Forecast
January 2011
Third Forecast
July 2011
Estimate
January 2012
Final
July 2012
Minnesota 4.8 4.7 7.1 6.2 4.3
Montana 4.7 4.5 6.3 5.4 6.6
North Dakota 2.8 -1.1 5.3 0.0 11.2
South Dakota 5.2 5.2 7.5 4.4 11.2
Wisconsin 4.0 4.2 6.3 7.1 3.1
Average Variance from Final 3.8 4.6 3.8 5.3  
Historical Average Variance 3.9 3.6 3.4    
Avg Var - Historical Avg Var -0.1 1.0 0.5    

 

Housing Units Authorized

Area First Forecast
July 2010
Second Forecast
January 2011
Third Forecast
July 2011
Estimate
January 2012
Final
July 2012
Minnesota -27.7 -10.7 -7.0 67.3 -2.2
Montana -4.1 0.4 -8.3 24.9 26.4
North Dakota -2.4 -2.3 41.2 23.6 9.4
South Dakota 6.4 5.2 3.5 29.0 -16.6
Wisconsin -16.0 -14.6 -7.6 35.3 -5.8
Average Variance from Final 20.2 15.4 18.7 34.4  
Historical Average Variance 21.4 21.9 24.2    
Avg Var - Historical Avg Var -1.2 -6.5 -5.5    

 

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