Economic Research
Economic ResearchTopic - Mathematical Methods
Real-Time Forecasting with a Mixed-Frequency VAR
Frank Schorfheide, Dongho Song
September 2012 - Working Paper
Consumption and Labor Supply with Partial Insurance: An Analytical Framework
Giovanni L. Violante, Jonathan Heathcote, Kjetil Storesletten
February 2012 - Staff Report
Buyers, Sellers and Middlemen: Variations in Search Theory
Randall Wright, Yuet-Yee Wong
October 2011 - Working Paper
Modeling the Evolution of Age and Cohort Effects in Social Research
Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, Yang Yang
September 2011 - Staff Report
Interstate Migration Has Fallen Less Than You Think: Consequences of Hot Deck Imputation in the Current Population Survey
Greg Kaplan, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
June 2011 - Staff Report
Interstate Migration Has Fallen Less Than You Think: Consequences of Hot Deck Imputation in the Current Population Survey
Greg Kaplan, Sam Schulhofer-Wohl
November 2010 - Working Paper
Inferring Labor Income Risk From Economic Choices: An Indirect Inference Approach
Fatih Guvenen, Anthony Smith
July 2010 - Staff Report
Measurement with Minimal Theory
Ellen R. McGrattan
July 2010 - Quarterly Review
Moving Back Home: Insurance Against Labor Market Risk
Greg Kaplan
March 2010 - Working Paper
Boomerang Kids: Labor Market Dynamics and Moving Back Home
Greg Kaplan
October 2009 - Working Paper
Risk Sharing, Inequality, and Fertility
Larry E. Jones, Ali Shourideh, Roozbeh Hosseini
September 2009 - Working Paper
Methods versus Substance: Measuring the Effects of Technology Shocks on Hours
José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, Cristina Fuentes-Albero, Maxym Kryshko, Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis, Frank Schorfheide
August 2009 - Staff Report
Using the General Equilibrium Growth Model to Study Great Depressions: A Reply to Temin
Edward C. Prescott, Timothy J. Kehoe
December 2008 - Staff Report
Are Structural VARs with Long-Run Restrictions Useful in Developing Business Cycle Theory?
Ellen R. McGrattan, Patrick J. Kehoe, V. V. Chari
May 2007 - Staff Report
Private Monitoring with Infinite Histories
Christopher Phelan, Andrzej Skrzypacz
November 2006 - Staff Report
How to Advance Theory with Structural VARs: Use the Sims-Cogley-Nason Approach
Patrick J. Kehoe
October 2006 - Staff Report
Real Business Cycles
Ellen R. McGrattan
February 2006 - Staff Report
Comment on Gali and Rabanal’s “Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBC Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?”
Ellen R. McGrattan
December 2004 - Staff Report
Comment on Mendoza and Tesar’s “Why Hasn’t Tax Competition Triggered a Race to the Bottom? Some Quantitative Lessons from the EU”
Ellen R. McGrattan
October 2004 - Staff Report
Non-Convexities in Quantitative General Equilibrium Studies of Business Cycles
Edward C. Prescott
November 2003 - Staff Report
The Economics of Labor Adjustment: Mind the Gap
Jonathan L. Willis, Russell Cooper
July 2003 - Staff Report
Factor Saving Innovation
Michele Boldrin, David K. Levine
February 2002 - Staff Report
Learning from Failure
Andreas Blume, April Franco
February 2002 - Staff Report
Finite Memory and Imperfect Monitoring
Narayana Kocherlakota, Harold L. Cole
March 2001 - Staff Report
Public Trust and Government Betrayal
Christopher Phelan
January 2001 - Staff Report
On the Equilibrium Concept for Overlapping Generations Organizations
Edward C. Prescott, José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
November 2000 - Staff Report
Societal Benefits of Nominal Bonds
Narayana Kocherlakota
August 2000 - Staff Report
Predicting Turning Points
Daniel M. Chin, John F. Geweke, Preston J. Miller
June 2000 - Staff Report
Learning to Be Unpredictable: An Experimental Study
Arijit Mukherji, David E. Runkle
April 2000 - Quarterly Review
Original Version: Sequential Equilibria in a Ramsey Tax Model
Christopher Phelan, Ennio Stacchetti
February 1999 - Staff Report
Sequential Equilibria in a Ramsey Tax Model
Christopher Phelan, Ennio Stacchetti
February 1999 - Staff Report
The Jointly Optimal Inflation Tax, Income Tax Structure, and Transfers
Preston J. Miller
January 1999 - Staff Report
Dynamic Games With Hidden Actions and Hidden States
Narayana Kocherlakota, Harold L. Cole
September 1998 - Staff Report
Efficient Non-contractible Investments
Andrew Postlewaite, George J. Mailath, Harold L. Cole
August 1998 - Staff Report
Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models: Inference, Development, and Communication
John F. Geweke
June 1998 - Staff Report
Application of Weighted Residual Methods to Dynamic Economic Models
Ellen R. McGrattan
March 1998 - Staff Report
Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: A Framework for Comparing Models and Data
Lee E. Ohanian, Francis X. Diebold, Jeremy Berkowitz
January 1998 - Staff Report
Is There a Trend Break in U.S. GNP? A Macroeconomic Perspective
Lee E. Ohanian, Lutz Kilian
January 1998 - Staff Report
Mixture of Normals Probit Models
John F. Geweke, Michael P. Keane
August 1997 - Staff Report
Marital Risk and Capital Accumulation
José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, Luis Cubeddu
July 1997 - Staff Report
An Empirical Analysis of Income Dynamics Among Men in the PSID: 1968–1989
John F. Geweke, Michael P. Keane
June 1997 - Staff Report
Computation of Equilibria in Heterogeneous Agent Models
José-Víctor Ríos-Rull
May 1997 - Staff Report
Cooperative Theory with Incomplete Information
Beth Allen
December 1996 - Staff Report
Implementation Theory with Incomplete Information
Beth Allen
December 1996 - Staff Report
Sticky Price and Limited Participation Models of Money: A Comparison
Lawrence J. Christiano, Charles L. Evans, Martin Eichenbaum
December 1996 - Staff Report
Delayed Financial Disclosure: Mexico's Recent Experience
Arijit Mukherji, David E. Runkle, R. Anton Braun
September 1996 - Quarterly Review
Chaos, Sunspots, and Automatic Stabilizers
Lawrence J. Christiano, Sharon G. Harrison
August 1996 - Staff Report
The Conditional CAPM and the Cross-Section of Expected Returns
Ravi Jagannathan, Zhenyu Wang
August 1996 - Staff Report
Class Systems and the Enforcement of Social Norms
Andrew Postlewaite, George J. Mailath, Harold L. Cole
July 1996 - Staff Report
Using Monthly Data to Improve Quarterly Model Forecasts
Daniel M. Chin, Preston J. Miller
April 1996 - Quarterly Review
How Prescribed Policy Can Mislead When Data Are Defective: A Follow-up to Srinivasan (1994) Using General Equilibrium
Erinç Yeldan, Jean Mercenier
February 1996 - Staff Report
Econometric Evaluation of Asset Pricing Models
Ravi Jagannathan, Wayne E. Ferson
January 1996 - Staff Report
A Fine Time for Monetary Policy?
David E. Runkle, John F. Geweke
December 1995 - Quarterly Review
Tobin's q and Asset Returns: Implications for Business Cycle Analysis
Lawrence J. Christiano, Jonas D. M. Fisher
November 1995 - Staff Report
On the Mechanics of Forming and Estimating Dynamic Linear Economies
Ellen R. McGrattan, Evan W. Anderson, Lars Peter Hansen, Thomas J. Sargent
September 1995 - Staff Report
Small Sample Properties of GMM for Business Cycle Analysis
Lawrence J. Christiano, Wouter den Haan
September 1995 - Staff Report
Comments on Farmer and Guo's "The Econometrics of Indeterminacy: An Applied Study"
S. Rao Aiyagari
August 1995 - Staff Report
Social Insurance and Taxation Under Sequential Majority Voting and Utilitarian Regimes
Dan Peled, S. Rao Aiyagari
August 1995 - Staff Report
Fixed vs. Floating Exchange Rates: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis
Daniel M. Chin, Preston J. Miller
July 1995 - Staff Report
An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle With Household Production and Fiscal Policy
Ellen R. McGrattan, Randall Wright, Richard Rogerson
May 1995 - Staff Report
Monte Carlo Simulation and Numerical Integration
John F. Geweke
May 1995 - Staff Report
On Sunk Costs and Trade Liberalization in Applied General Equilibrium
Jean Mercenier, Nicolas Schmitt
March 1995 - Staff Report
Capacity Precommitment as a Barrier to Entry: A Bertrand-Edgeworth Approach
Beth Allen, Dan Kovenock, Raymond Deneckere, Tom Faith
February 1995 - Staff Report
Nonuniqueness of Solutions in Applied General Equilibrium Models With Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition
Jean Mercenier
October 1994 - Staff Report
Mechanics of Forming and Estimating Dynamic Linear Economies
Ellen R. McGrattan, Lars Peter Hansen, Thomas J. Sargent
September 1994 - Staff Report
The Solution and Estimation of Discrete Choice Dynamic Programming Models by Simulation and Interpolation: Monte Carlo Evidence
Kenneth I. Wolpin, Michael P. Keane
September 1994 - Staff Report
The Computational Experiment: An Econometric Tool
Edward C. Prescott, Finn E. Kydland
August 1994 - Staff Report
An Experimental Study of Learning and Limited Information in Games
Arijit Mukherji, David E. Runkle, Kevin A. McCabe
July 1994 - Staff Report
Statistical Inference in the Multinomial Multiperiod Probit Model
David E. Runkle, John F. Geweke, Michael P. Keane
July 1994 - Staff Report
Dynamic Bargaining Theory
Melvyn Coles, Randall Wright
June 1994 - Staff Report
Algorithms for Solving Dynamic Models With Occasionally Binding Constraints
Lawrence J. Christiano, Jonas D. M. Fisher
May 1994 - Staff Report
Alternative Computational Approaches to Inference in the Multinomial Probit Model
David E. Runkle, John F. Geweke, Michael P. Keane
May 1994 - Staff Report
Two-Sided Search
Kenneth Burdett, Randall Wright
April 1994 - Staff Report
Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models
Lars Peter Hansen, Ravi Jagannathan
March 1994 - Staff Report
Seasonality and Equilibrium Business Cycle Theories
Charles L. Evans, R. Anton Braun
March 1994 - Staff Report
Household Production and Taxation in the Stochastic Growth Model
Ellen R. McGrattan, Randall Wright, Richard Rogerson
December 1993 - Staff Report
The CAPM Is Alive and Well
Ravi Jagannathan, Zhenyu Wang
November 1993 - Staff Report
Solving the Stochastic Growth Model With a Finite Element Method
Ellen R. McGrattan
October 1993 - Staff Report
On the Relation Between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks
David E. Runkle, Lawrence R. Glosten, Ravi Jagannathan
August 1993 - Staff Report
Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Business Cycle Model
Patrick J. Kehoe, V. V. Chari, Lawrence J. Christiano
July 1993 - Staff Report
How Little We Know About Deficit Policy Effects
Preston J. Miller, William Roberds
December 1992 - Quarterly Review
Banking in Computable General Equilibrium Economies: Technical Appendices I and II
Fernando Alvarez, Terry J. Fitzgerald
October 1992 - Staff Report
How the U.S. Treasury Should Auction Its Debt
V. V. Chari, Robert J. Weber
September 1992 - Quarterly Review
No Relief in Sight for the U.S. Economy
David E. Runkle
September 1992 - Quarterly Review
Banking in Computable General Equilibrium Economies
Edward C. Prescott, Fernando Alvarez, Javier Díaz-Giménez, Terry J. Fitzgerald
March 1992 - Staff Report
On the Existence and Uniqueness of Nonoptimal Equilibria in Dynamic Stochastic Economies
Gregory W. Huffman, Jeremy Greenwood
January 1992 - Working Paper
Evaluating the Accuracy of Sampling-Based Approaches to the Calculation of Posterior Moments
John F. Geweke
December 1991 - Staff Report
Modeling the Liquidity Effect of a Money Shock
Lawrence J. Christiano
December 1991 - Quarterly Review
A Bleak Outlook for the U.S. Economy
David E. Runkle
September 1991 - Quarterly Review
Contracts, Constraints, and Consumption
Edward J. Green, Soo Nam Oh
August 1991 - Staff Report
Evaluating the Welfare Effects of Alternative Monetary Arrangements
Edward C. Prescott, Ayse Imrohoroglu
July 1991 - Quarterly Review
Barter and Monetary Exchange Under Private Information
Randall Wright, Stephen D. Williamson
June 1991 - Staff Report
More on Money as a Medium of Exchange
Timothy J. Kehoe, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, Randall Wright
May 1991 - Staff Report
Why Is Automobile Insurance in Philadelphia So Damn Expensive?
Eric Smith, Randall Wright
April 1991 - Staff Report
A Note on Labor Contracts With Private Information and Household Production
Ed Nosal, Randall Wright, Richard Rogerson
January 1991 - Staff Report
Indivisibilities, Lotteries, and Sunspot Equilibria
Karl Shell, Randall Wright
January 1991 - Staff Report
A Suggestion for Oversimplifying the Theory of Money
Neil Wallace
December 1990 - Quarterly Review
Bad News From a Forecasting Model of the U.S. Economy
David E. Runkle
September 1990 - Quarterly Review
Vector Autoregression Evidence on Monetarism: Another Look at the Robustness Debate
Richard M. Todd
April 1990 - Quarterly Review
The Permanent Income Hypothesis Revisited
Lawrence J. Christiano, David A. Marshall, Martin Eichenbaum
January 1990 - Staff Report
The U.S. Economy in 1989 and 1990: Walking a Fine Line
David E. Runkle, Preston J. Miller
December 1989 - Quarterly Review
Periodic Linear-Quadratic Methods for Modeling Seasonality
Richard M. Todd
November 1989 - Staff Report
The Firm and the Plant in General Equilibrium Theory
Edward C. Prescott, Andreas Hornstein
November 1989 - Staff Report
A Simple Way to Estimate Current-Quarter GNP
Preston J. Miller, Terry J. Fitzgerald
September 1989 - Quarterly Review
P*: Not the Inflation Forecaster's Holy Grail
Lawrence J. Christiano
September 1989 - Quarterly Review
The U.S. Economy in 1990 and 1991: Continued Expansion Likely
David E. Runkle
September 1989 - Quarterly Review
Bank Failures, Financial Restrictions, and Aggregate Fluctuations: Canada and the United States, 1870–1913
Stephen D. Williamson
July 1989 - Quarterly Review
Banking Without Deposit Insurance or Bank Panics: Lessons From a Model of the U.S. National Banking System
V. V. Chari
July 1989 - Quarterly Review
Sustainable Plans
Patrick J. Kehoe, V. V. Chari
June 1989 - Staff Report
Are Economic Forecasts Rational?
David E. Runkle, Michael P. Keane
April 1989 - Quarterly Review
How Little We Know About Budget Policy Effects
Preston J. Miller, William Roberds
April 1989 - Staff Report
Determinacy of Equilibria in Dynamic Models With Finitely Many Consumers
Timothy J. Kehoe, David K. Levine, Paul M. Romer
March 1989 - Staff Report
Economic Fluctuations Without Shocks to Fundamentals; Or, Does the Stock Market Dance to Its Own Music?
S. Rao Aiyagari
December 1988 - Quarterly Review
Why No Crunch From the Crash?
David E. Runkle
December 1988 - Quarterly Review
Modeling the Impact of an Energy Price Shock on Interregional Income Transfer
Clarence W. Nelson
July 1988 - Quarterly Review
Can There Be Short-Period Deterministic Cycles When People Are Long Lived?
S. Rao Aiyagari
May 1988 - Staff Report
The Profitability and Risk Effects of Allowing Bank Holding Companies to Merge With Other Financial Firms: A Simulation Study
John H. Boyd, Stanley L. Graham
April 1988 - Quarterly Review
Forecasting and Modeling the U.S. Economy in 1986-88
Richard M. Todd, William Roberds
December 1987 - Quarterly Review
The Quantitative Significance of the Lucas Critique
Preston J. Miller, William Roberds
December 1987 - Staff Report
Why Is Consumption Less Volatile Than Income?
Lawrence J. Christiano
September 1987 - Quarterly Review
Recent Developments in Modeling Financial Intermediation
Stephen D. Williamson
July 1987 - Quarterly Review
Intergenerational Linkages and Government Budget Policies
S. Rao Aiyagari
April 1987 - Quarterly Review
Money Does Granger-Cause Output in the Bivariate Money—Output Relation
Lawrence J. Christiano, Lars Ljungqvist
February 1987 - Staff Report
Vector Autoregressions and Reality
David E. Runkle
February 1987 - Staff Report
Are Forecasting Models Usable for Policy Analysis?
Christopher A. Sims
December 1986 - Quarterly Review
Modern Business Cycle Analysis: A Guide to the Prescott-Summers Debate
Rodolfo E. Manuelli
September 1986 - Quarterly Review
Response to a Skeptic
Edward C. Prescott
September 1986 - Quarterly Review
Some Skeptical Observations on Real Business Cycle Theory
Lawrence H. Summers
September 1986 - Quarterly Review
Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement
Edward C. Prescott
September 1986 - Quarterly Review
Do Sterilized Interventions Affect Exchange Rates?
Warren E. Weber
July 1986 - Quarterly Review
Solution of Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian Dynamic Games Using Variational Methods
William Roberds
July 1986 - Staff Report
How Monetary Policy in 1985 Affects the Outlook
Robert B. Litterman
September 1985 - Quarterly Review
Above-Average National Growth in 1985 and 1986
Robert B. Litterman
September 1984 - Quarterly Review
Forecasting and Policy Analysis With Bayesian Vector Autoregression Models
Robert B. Litterman
September 1984 - Quarterly Review
Improving Economic Forecasting With Bayesian Vector Autoregression
Richard M. Todd
September 1984 - Quarterly Review
More Growth Ahead for Ninth District States
Hossain Amirizadeh, Richard M. Todd
September 1984 - Quarterly Review
A Legal Restrictions Theory of the Demand for "Money" and the Role of Monetary Policy
Neil Wallace
December 1983 - Quarterly Review
Higher Deficit Policies Lead to Higher Inflation
Preston J. Miller
December 1983 - Quarterly Review
Using Vector Autoregressions to Measure the Uncertainty in Minnesota's Revenue Forecasts
Robert B. Litterman, Thomas M. Supel
April 1983 - Quarterly Review
As the Nation's Economy Goes, So Goes Minnesota's
Richard M. Todd, Robert B. Litterman
June 1982 - Quarterly Review
Econometric Policy Evaluation Under Rational Expectations
Charles H. Whiteman, Thomas H. Turner
June 1981 - Quarterly Review
Estimating the Effects of the Oil-Price Shock
Preston J. Miller, Thomas H. Turner, Thomas M. Supel
December 1980 - Quarterly Review
Integrating Micro and Macroeconomics: An Application to Credit Controls
Neil Wallace
September 1980 - Quarterly Review
Estimating Vector Autoregressions Using Methods Not Based on Explicit Economic Theories
Thomas J. Sargent
July 1979 - Quarterly Review
Help for the Regional Economic Forecaster: Vector Autoregression
Paul A. Anderson
July 1979 - Quarterly Review
After Keynesian Macroeconomics
Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Thomas J. Sargent
April 1979 - Quarterly Review
Rational Expectations: How Important for Econometric Policy Analysis?
Paul A. Anderson
September 1978 - Quarterly Review
A New Investigation of the Impact of Wage and Price Controls
Charles H. Whiteman
April 1978 - Quarterly Review
