Tracking the Model's Forecasts for 2014

Nonfarm Employment
Unemployment Rate
Personal Income
Housing Units Authorized

Nonfarm Employment

Area First Forecast
July 2013
Second Forecast
January 2014
Third Forecast
July 2014
Estimate
January 2015
Final
July 2015
Minnesota 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.8 1.3
Montana 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.4 0.4
North Dakota 3.5 4.5 4.6 5.0 4.1
South Dakota 0.3 0.9 0.8 1.0  1.0
Wisconsin -0.1 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.6
U.P. of Michigan 0.3 0.7 -0.9 0.6 1.0
Average Variance from Final 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5
Historical Average Variance 1.2 1.2 0.9
Avg Var - Historical Avg Var

-0.5

-0.7

-0.3

Unemployment Rate

Area First Forecast
July 2013
Second Forecast
January 2014
Third Forecast
July 2014
Estimate
January 2015
Final
July 2015
Minnesota 5.2

4.3

4.4

3.7 3.7
Montana 5.1 4.9 4.3 4.3  4.6
North Dakota 3.2 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.8
South Dakota 3.9 3.5 3.8 3.3 3.3
Wisconsin 7.0 6.0 5.5 5.2 5.2
U.P. of Michigan 8.9 9.1 9.2 7.1  7.0
Average Variance from Final 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.1
Historical Average Variance 0.8 0.7 0.5
Avg Var - Historical Avg Var

0.1

-0.2

-0.1

Personal Income

Area First Forecast
July 2013
Second Forecast
January 2014
Third Forecast
July 2014
Estimate
January 2015
Final
July 2015
Minnesota

3.4

4.7

3.1

4.2 4.0
Montana 3.2

4.4

2.1

3.6 4.8
North Dakota 4.8

8.8

0.7

3.2 7.4
South Dakota 4.7

5.2

0.5

2.7 2.8
Wisconsin 2.6

4.0

2.3

4.4 4.2
Average Variance from Final 1.7 1.0 2.9 1.2
Historical Average Variance 3.9 3.7 3.4

Avg Var - Historical Avg Var

-2.2

-2.7

-0.5

Housing Units Authorized

Area First Forecast
July 2013
Second Forecast
January 2014
Third Forecast
July 2014
Estimate
January 2015
Final
July 2015
Minnesota 6.5

14.7

-16.6

10.1 -7.1
Montana -2.8

-0.2

-42.9

-10.0 21.4
North Dakota -16.7

-39.2

-26.2

11.5 18.3
South Dakota -0.4

10.6

30.9

9.8 57.7
Wisconsin -6.6

-5.4

-8.5

-10.6

-14.4
Average Variance from Final 27.7 31.4 30.2 21.4
Historical Average Variance 22.1 22.7 24.6
Avg Var - Historical Avg Var

5.6

8.7

5.6

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