This page provides baseline estimates for the future number of community banks in the United States and the states of the Ninth District (see the spreadsheet for graphs of these baseline estimates such as the ones for Minnesota below).
We will compare actual consolidation—which has been occurring at a steady rate for many years—against these baselines to help determine if consolidation proceeds at a higher than expected rate. We provide these baselines and will update quarterly to help assess claims that increased regulation and supervision in response to the financial crisis will speed the decline of community banks. See Assessing Community Bank Consolidation, Economic Policy Paper 14-1, for details on our baseline estimates and the consolidation of community banks, and the accompanying video for a brief overview.
2020 Q3 Data
| United States | Minnesota | North Dakota | South Dakota | Montana | NW Wisconsin | U.P. of Michigan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4292 | 264 | 70 | 54 | 38 | 39 | 17 |
Model Forecast for 2021 Q3
| United States | Minnesota | North Dakota | South Dakota | Montana | NW Wisconsin | U.P. of Michigan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simple Trend | -337 | -6 | -3 | -1 | -2 | -1 | 0 |
| -7.9% | -2.3% | -4.3% | -1.9% |
-5.3% | -2.6% | 0.0% | |
| Rate of Change | -142 | -6 | -2 | -2 | -3 | -2 | -1 |
| -3.3% | -2.3% | -2.9% | -3.7% | -7.9% | -5.1% | -5.9% | |
| Size Dependent | -116 | -7 | -2 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 0 |
| -2.7% | -2.7% | -2.9% | -1.9% | -2.6% | -2.6% | 0.0% | |
| Bank Survival | -292 | -20 | -6 | -3 | -4 | -3 | 0 |
| -6.8% | -7.6% | -8.6% | -5.6% | -10.5% | -7.7% | 0.0% |