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Trade Policy Uncertainty Index

An aggregate measure of uncertainty regarding trade policy actions based on newspaper coverage

The Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) Index counts the frequency of joint occurrences of trade policy and uncertainty terms across major newspapers. The TPU Index is based on searches of the archives of seven newspapers: The Boston Globe, the Chicago Tribune, The Guardian, the Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post. The measure is calculated by counting the monthly frequency of articles discussing trade policy uncertainty (as a share of the total number of news articles) for each newspaper. The index is then normalized to a value of 100 for a 1 percent article share. The TPU Index starts in 1960.

For more information about the TPU Index, visit Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) Index. Daily data are available at that site.


Latest update: October 5, 2026

Update notes: Files will be updated around the first of each month.


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Suggested citation

Caldara, Dario, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo (2020), “The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty,” Journal of Monetary Economics 109: 38–59.

Related content

Research paper

Caldara, Dario, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo. 2020. “The Economic Effects of Trade Policy Uncertainty.” Journal of Monetary Economics 109: 38–59.

Article

Caldara, Dario, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo. 2019. “Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Global Economic Activity?” FEDS Notes (blog). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, September 4.

Contact

Andrea Raffo: andrea.raffo@mpls.frb.org

This work is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International.