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International Evidence on Business Cycle Duration Dependence

Discussion Paper 31 | Published July 1, 1990

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Authors

Daniel E. Sichel

Francis X. Diebold

Glenn D. Rudebusch

International Evidence on Business Cycle Duration Dependence

Abstract

We provide an investigation of duration dependence in prewar business expansions, contractions, and whole cycles for France, Germany, and Great Britain. Our results, obtained using both nonparametric and parametric procedures, generally indicate the presence of positive duration dependence in expansions and whole cycles but not in contractions. Our results corroborate those of our earlier studies of the United States.